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re: NASA says City Killer asteroid odd of hitting now up to 1-in-38, or 2.6%.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:01 am to Displaced
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:01 am to Displaced
quote:
They don't know the exact path. Think of it like a hurricane tracker map
what? It's flying in a straight line in the vacuum of space. It will not deviate from it's current path, nor will the earth. It's nothing like a hurricane tracker. At some point they should have enough data to say the exact time and place it will hit.
2
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:01 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Somewhere along this line
If that hits India it'll be really ugly.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:02 am to FearTheFish
quote:
What are the chances of it hitting the water, since that makes up the majority of the planet?
0%
bro it's name is the City Killer it's right there in the title.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:03 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
That's my problem. If they are just making guesses based on what they think it is made of then these predictions are meaningless. They're just making things up.
They are using the data available. They can only see this object from one angle and are limited in accuracy for other measurements. As it gets closer they get more data. It is a projection and not a guess.
Some compared to a hurricane and that is incorrect. It is already going to hit us or not hit us.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:04 am to Cell of Awareness
We probably won't hear about it for a while because NASA has said that they are about to lose sight of it until 2028.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:05 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:05 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
Shouldn't the odds just be the odds? What is making them "edge" up?
More data. They are repositioning James Webb Telescope to get a better look at it next month. That should give us even more data. Then, we won’t have visibility of it for around 3 years, so basically we will be in limbo after JWT initial view
Would be a fun few years if the odds are like 1/15 lol
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:06 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
At some point they should have enough data to say the exact time and place it will hit.
Right. That's why is like tracking a hurricane.
The challenge right now is not only identifying every little piece of mass in the gravitational zone, it is defining the gravitational zone, once you identify a mass in the gravitational zone estimating it's mass and current trajectory. As the gravitational zone gets smaller and smaller the trajectory gets more and more certain.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:06 am to Nado Jenkins83
quote:
At least my a-hole has decent taste in movies.
I take it that you would not have received a Presidential alert.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:07 am to IT_Dawg
When does Trump turn to Musk and task him with dealing with it?
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:07 am to TeddyPadillac
quote:
It's flying in a straight line in the vacuum of space. It will not deviate from it's current path
Asteroids that contain ice can lose ice to space over time which can alter their trajectory.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:07 am to Cell of Awareness
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:07 am to Cell of Awareness
quote:
Some compared to a hurricane and that is incorrect. It is already going to hit us or not hit us.
This is said about every hurricane too.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:14 am to Cell of Awareness
quote:
now to 1-in-38
So about the same odds as putting it all on a roulette number and winning?
House always wins. Asteroid doesn't stand a chance.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:14 am to jflsufan
I would have actually. They would have me pick the best movies. You would be a janitor
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:16 am to Kjnstkmn
quote:
Asteroid impact simulator from prior post on this topic
This is pretty cool.
So if this asteroid landed on the LSU campus this is what would happen:
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:20 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
But this is just math. It's gravity and mass. What is changing?
quote:
mass
Estimate.
quote:
gravity
Estimate based on previous estimate.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:20 am to GumboPot
Am I thr only one impressed that we know anything at all about this litle rock out in space?
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:21 am to Cell of Awareness
Never tell me the odds
Posted on 2/18/25 at 10:22 am to Cell of Awareness
Don’t cut our funding
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