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re: Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low

Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:58 am to
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61244 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 11:58 am to
quote:

home prices won’t go down


Want to place a little bet on that?

I'm not saying pricing will crash, but they will go down. It's already slowly happening in some markets.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
40111 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:03 pm to
Of course there are situations where people must refi or must sell and buy new, but those select instances aren’t really a strong basis for a blanket “people who bought in 2020 are fricked when interest rates rise”
Posted by DevilDagNS
Member since Dec 2017
2953 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

The adjustable-rate mortgage share of applications increased to 7.6%, which was the highest level in five months. The number of ARM applications rose 4% week to week.

“Some homebuyers are looking to lower their monthly payments by accepting some interest rate risk after the initial fixed period,” noted Kan.


Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14428 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

Well if you buy a home with an adjustable rate intending to refinance and now the rate is 7.5% instead of 4 that makes a huge impact on monthly notes and such.

I bought last summer with adjustable rate but it is locked for 10 years… most ARMs are locked for a period of 5 years or so.. therefore not affected by any near term market conditions.
Posted by 632627
LA
Member since Dec 2011
14616 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:15 pm to
quote:


I bought last summer with adjustable rate but it is locked for 10 years… most ARMs are locked for a period of 5 years or so.. therefore not affected by any near term market conditions.


Out of curiosity, what was the fixed rate at the time and what variable rate did you sign with?
Posted by 777Tiger
Member since Mar 2011
87998 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

I bought last summer with adjustable rate but it is locked for 10 years… most ARMs are locked for a period of 5 years or so.. therefore not affected by any near term market conditions.



saw some $4.99 fixed money available yesterday but it was builder offered financing
Posted by SquatchDawg
Cohutta Wilderness
Member since Sep 2012
18948 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:18 pm to
quote:

And can because...... supply


So where do the figures for “supply” come from? Seems like there are more than enough new developments going up everywhere.

How do they determine how many people are actively seeking to buy a new house to determine that supply is low?
Posted by PhiTiger1764
Lurker since Aug 2003
Member since Oct 2009
14428 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:20 pm to
3.25% 30 year ARM locked 10 years then adjusts yearly beginning in year 11.

30 year Fixed were in the neighborhood of 5% last July when I locked.

I did get really lucky with my timing here. I don’t think that rate was advertised by my credit union very long.
Posted by Rize
Spring Texas
Member since Sep 2011
18578 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low by Gifmanquote:People still listing houses way too high And can because...... supply


They are listing newer houses for $260 sqft to $308 sqft up and down Hoo Shoo Too where I live. The Sanctuary on tiger bend is going for $280 to $290 a Sqft.
Posted by Bunsbert Montcroff
Phoenix AZ / Boise ID
Member since Jan 2008
5729 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

3.25% 30 year ARM locked 10 years then adjusts yearly beginning in year 11. 30 year Fixed were in the neighborhood of 5% last July when I locked. I did get really lucky with my timing here. I don’t think that rate was advertised by my credit union very long

Nice, I think I’d be paying the minimum on that debt for ten years and put as much as possible into one-year T Bills or a HYSA. Then pay down that higher-rate debt and possibly reamortize if you can’t refinance to a lower rate. Assuming you stay in the house for ten years.
Posted by Smoke7024
Member since Jun 2010
23885 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:27 pm to
Government driving up costs of new houses in the name of energy efficiency.
Posted by Sus-Scrofa
Member since Feb 2013
10412 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:31 pm to
I bought a fairly modest house at just under 3%.

Every once in a while I look at the houses available and the projected monthly payments. If someone bought my house today, they’d probably pay 50k to 70k more for it and their payment would be more than double.

That’s an insane change in 3 or 4 years. I may be too cheap to ever move.
Posted by 777Tiger
Member since Mar 2011
87998 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

If someone bought my house today, they’d probably pay 50k to 70k more for it and their payment would be more than double.

That’s an insane change in 3 or 4 years. I may be too cheap to ever move.


mortgage rates will come back down, I'm usually against ARMs but right now I'd go for one if I were financing
Posted by Shexter
Prairieville
Member since Feb 2014
19037 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

I had no choice but to refinance my house after a divorce. Went from 3% to over 6%, and my note went up $200 even though I financed less.


quote:

whole different ball game baw


Yep, the extra $200 a month was nothing compared to the first f*cking I got via divorce.
Posted by Epic Cajun
Lafayette, LA
Member since Feb 2013
36227 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

It was a common refrain around here early last year when rates were beginning to rise that “all these people who bought in the last couple of year” were going to be fricked when interest rates rose. No explanation was ever given as to why but posters banged that drum for a while.

People were under the impression that if you bought when rates were at 2.75% you were buying when the market was high and therefore probably overpaying because home values would drop when interest rates went up. We haven’t seen a market correction on home values though.

I was not one of these people, I’m happy to have bought in 2017 and re-financed in 2020.
Posted by fwtex
Member since Nov 2019
3184 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:39 pm to
quote:

It was a common refrain around here early last year when rates were beginning to rise that “all these people who bought in the last couple of year” were going to be fricked when interest rates rose


Maybe they were referring to the likelihood that the value of the houses would have to drop so that people could afford to buy houses at the higher interest rates. If so then, those with existing low interest rate mortgages could have a problem if they have to sell the property they bought at a high price that was "affordable subsidized" by a low interest rate.
This post was edited on 8/23/23 at 12:40 pm
Posted by 777Tiger
Member since Mar 2011
87998 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

the extra $200 a month was nothing compared to the first f*cking I got via divorce.



I'm hip, it got better though, right?
Posted by IAmNERD
Member since May 2017
23510 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:42 pm to
quote:

Mortgage rates jumped last week to the highest level in 23 years, pushing mortgage demand from homebuyers to the lowest level in 28 years

Could have been the entire article.
Posted by Areddishfish
The Wild West
Member since Oct 2015
6431 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 12:53 pm to
quote:

that supply is low


Artificially. Go to zillow, etc. and change filters from buying to for rent. Lots of people scooped up properties when the rate was comically low and are just renting them out.
Posted by Shexter
Prairieville
Member since Feb 2014
19037 posts
Posted on 8/23/23 at 1:00 pm to
quote:

Lots of corporations scooped up properties when the rate was comically low and are just renting them out.


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