re: Maybe this thing is almost over - Oxford theory UPDATED OP showing more evidence

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what in the frick are you even talking about

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The phenomenon of those who champion their political allegiances over accepting or at least listening (see above) to experts and data.

BUMP

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COVID-19 emerged in China in December


Absolutely not true. There was enough of it around in mid November that news stories in the South China Morning Post appeared citing an outbreak of viral pneumonia diagnosed by clinicians in Wuhan.

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LINK Emerged in December.

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My entire family was sick for a month in October. Cough that wouldn't go away. Occasional fevers. Headaches

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Had something like this started Thanksgiving week. Dry persistent but unproductive cough, extreme fatigue, general feeling that something wasn’t right - that lasted well into December. Went to Doc, who gave me a steroid shot and a z pack. That seemed to help get me to January, but it kicked back in then. Cough came back and tiredness and all. Didn’t have fever but felt terrible. Had flu shot in Oct but wasn’t tested. Joked that I had the Corona cough, but wondered if it really was a joke. Wondered if I had pneumonia. Saw Doc twice in Jan/March period and got two more rounds of increasingly strong antibiotics. Was not tested for flu or Covid. Truth is my symptoms were miserable but vague. Could have been sinus infection, rinitis, allergies, bronchitis, bad cold, or worse.
At the moment I am feeling a lot better, so whatever mystery upper respiratory thing Ive been fighting might be done.

While that is a good point, this sickness had to be brought into the nursing homes. It’s not like these residents are out and about all day. Had to reach a saturation point in the general population to where staff and/or a visitor brought it in.

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I do believe it was taken with a grain of salt. And it may still be closer to the truth than this Oxford study

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The same group who originally posted that model have released a revision. Original projected 500k deaths in total for the UK, the revision has it at around 20k.

96% Decrease in Projected Death Rate for UK

I see someone else has posted a link ITT showing that Stanford has joined this party as well. Do with that information what you will.

ETA: 500k, and now 20k, are the high end of his estimates. Meaning those are worst case scenario numbers.

Great post.

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What are you observing that doesn’t fit the thinking that this virus is far more contagious and far less deadly than we thought?

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I sincerely hope to read good news but what people are not understanding is how these theories explain the deluge of serious/critical cases happening at the same time?

I can completely understand that the death rate is more likely 1% or less (but with the dangerous caveat that over 5% more cases may need extended days on respirators to keep that at 1%).

However, as someone who lives in NY, I am daily passing 2 hospitals with multiple outdoor event tents now set up and rapidly increasing lines of hundreds of sick coughing people all the way around the block being told the wait is over 36 hours for an empty hospital bed even after they get into the hallways of the hospital.

I have friends who are at home with all the symptoms saying it's the sickest they have ever felt who have doctors telling them it's better to not even try to go to a hospital unless really life or death.

I am curious exactly how these studies explain what we are currently witnessing in NYC?

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I sincerely hope to read good news but what people are not understanding is how these theories explain the deluge of serious/critical cases happening at the same time?

I can completely understand that the death rate is more likely 1% or less (but with the dangerous caveat that over 5% more cases may need extended days on respirators to keep that at 1%).

However, as someone who lives in NY, I am daily passing 2 hospitals with multiple outdoor event tents now set up and rapidly increasing lines of hundreds of sick coughing people all the way around the block being told the wait is over 36 hours for an empty hospital bed even after they get into the hallways of the hospital.

I have friends who are at home with all the symptoms saying it's the sickest they have ever felt who have doctors telling them it's better to not even try to go to a hospital unless really life or death.

I am curious exactly how these studies explain what we are currently witnessing in NYC?

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I don’t want to sound like I’m downplaying what is going on because it is a significant event.

The hospitalization explosion does not invalidate the theory that this has been here for months, because it is still spreading exponentially. In the same way that today we are at capacity but next month would be a million short on ICU beds at the peak of the doomsday curve, we can be seeing hospitals that were fine a month ago be nearing or exceeding capacity if we are nearing the peak of the less scary curve. It is still exponential growth, just on a much smaller curve with much lower variables (hospitalization and mortality rate).