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Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - August 3, 2020 Update: 120,846 cases - 3910 deaths - 1,393,910 tested
Posted on 8/3/20 at 1:58 pm to hendersonshands
Posted on 8/3/20 at 1:58 pm to hendersonshands
quote:
Only 14,000 tests. 26,000 tests last Monday and 33,000 the week before. Does it mean anything or is this just a new two week cycle thing?
Yes it means they are running out of asymptomatic people to repeatedly test.
Also if you remember just a few weeks ago places like Ochsner started making it harder to get a test.
Yet the percent positive keeps dropping. So it’s not lack of tests. The presence of virus is decreasing.
This post was edited on 8/3/20 at 2:00 pm
2
Posted on 8/3/20 at 1:59 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Yes it means they are running out of asymptomatic people to repeatedly test
And prisoners etc
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:02 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:It has
I can almost guarantee you that seasonal flu has killed more kids this year in the USA than has SARS 2.0
It is factual that flu is more deadly for pediatrics than covid-19 is
That is simple science
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:07 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Yes it means they are running out of asymptomatic people to repeatedly test.
When you're having to give out McDonald's vouchers and free school supplies to entice people to come to your testing site, you're obviously hunting for asymptomatic cases.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:11 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
I can almost guarantee you that seasonal flu has killed more kids this year in the USA than has SARS 2.0. Once we've defeated SARS 2.0, shall we continue shutting down the world for half the year out of fear of flu?
I have tried in vain for a while to find an easily accessible, functional account of Covid deaths in people 0-18 years old nationally. It is damn near impossible. I did find a graph from the CDC that is abysmal if you are attempting to navigate it via a mobile device.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:22 pm to LegendInMyMind
quote:
have tried in vain for a while to find an easily accessible, functional account of Covid deaths in people 0-18 years old nationally. It is damn near impossible. I did find a graph from the CDC that is abysmal if you are attempting to navigate it via a mobile device.
Use this CDC link, then click the blue bar for Table 1. Should drop down into a usable table. However, you might have to do some digging to figure out number of deaths between 15-18, as they group "15-24 together.
This is also data updated July 29; including 135,579 total deaths...which is lower than the reported number. This count is provisional in some way.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:29 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
Do you have an explanation as to why the numbers or different?
The explanation as to why they are different would prove if it is or isn't bullshite.
Lets do some math with Friday's numbers. There were 88,590 cases on 7/17 and 116,280 on 7/31. We'll assume those 88,590 have all recovered or died, so on 7/31 there were 27,690 active cases.
Friday had 24,853 test results with a 7.2% positive rate. In order to make that 15%, there would need to be an additional 1,929 positive tests results with zero increase in number of tests. That's the equivalent of 6.966% of active cases being retested with a positive result. The duplicate positive doesn't get reported as another case, but the test does get reported as a positive test.
It does not sound unreasonable for 1 out of every 14 active cases to get a positive retest every day.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:43 pm to loogaroo
quote:
Yes...inquiring minds would like to know.
Fwiw, the backdated positivity numbers have been dropping.
The original number on the 15th (his quoted datethat started the whole discussion weeks ago) has gone from 15.01 to 14.13.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:46 pm to CubsFanBudMan
With how the LDH reported the numbers yesterday over 10% were from before July 1st. And that was just numbers reported yesterday.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:46 pm to CubsFanBudMan
quote:
does not sound unreasonable for 1 out of every 14 active cases to get a positive retest every day.
It doesn’t? Sounds pretty unreasonable to me
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:48 pm to fightin tigers
I think it's becoming pretty clear that negative tests tend to lag positive tests in terms of reporting. Why? Who fricking knows since to me if you complete a test you should be able to report it
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:48 pm to etm512
quote:
Who fricking knows since to me if you complete a test you should be able to report it
This all damn day
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:54 pm to Oilfieldbiology
FWIW I got tested on Wednesday due to needing a negative test for a work assignment. Got my negative result back this morning, maybe the testing backlog is dropping down some?
Posted on 8/3/20 at 2:58 pm to Oilfieldbiology
quote:
It doesn’t? Sounds pretty unreasonable to me
My company requires a negative test before being allowed back at work. If I were to test positive, I think I would have to wait 7 days before getting retested, so I'm sure I would go get retested on day 7, possible again on day 8, and so on until I got my negative test.
I've also heard to people taking a second test because the results from the first test are taking too long. If both tests are positive, that would cause the same thing.
How many positive test does the average case generate? I'm sure if you're in a prison or nursing home the answer is 1. But I'm sure there's also people that have had 3 or 4 positive tests.
For the full test population to be 15% positive, the average case would need to generate 1.73 positive tests. I would expect it to be closer to 1.25 positive tests per case. That would make it 10.8% positive rate.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 3:02 pm to etm512
quote:
I think it's becoming pretty clear that negative tests tend to lag positive tests in terms of reporting. Why? Who fricking knows since to me if you complete a test you should be able to report it
Are the testing requirements for the rapid results test more strict than the send off tests? If so, then people that are getting their results within a day or 2 are showing symptoms, the people that are getting their results in 3 - 7 days are not.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 3:10 pm to TigersSEC2010
John Bel Dumbass is pissed we’re gonna get to open the economy back up before the election.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 3:36 pm to TBoy
quote:
So anyone who says it doesn't matter if kids are infected obviously knows nothing about viruses, or is embracing a political (as in non-reality based) agenda.
Do you know how many respiratory viruses there are out there? Should we keep kids inside for 10 years to wait for the long term effects of every virus?
Flu and RSV are harder on kids.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 5:44 pm to Riolobo
Good numbers all the way around (except vents, but with hospitalizations going down, that has to turn down soon too).
If the deal is they need 14 days of under 10%, we are halfway there for that stat.
If the deal is they need 14 days of under 10%, we are halfway there for that stat.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 5:55 pm to hendersonshands
quote:
Only 14,000 tests. 26,000 tests last Monday and 33,000 the week before. Does it mean anything or is this just a new two week cycle thing?
Just check out Cajun Field testing site, it's basically a ghost town now. They're gonna have to give away free shite to have people show up.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 5:58 pm to Methuselah
quote:
the deal is they need 14 days of under 10%, we are halfway there for that stat.
Pretty sure they want 14 days under 5%
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