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Started By
Message
re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 7, 2020 Update: 16,284 Cases - 74,655 tested - 582 dead
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:42 pm to TigersSEC2010
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:42 pm to TigersSEC2010
quote:
s for deaths, we don't want people to die, but when they die and nobody is waiting on their vent, that is good news.
We still have unused vent capacity, so no one is waiting on vents. We have 187 new cases hospitalizations and 70 new deaths. We have no specifics as to the vent numbers (new vents vs removed from vent recovered vs dead on vent).
I think it’s good that there wasn’t a big jump in vents, but given the lack of specifics combined with the jump in hospitalizations and deaths, I don’t think we can say the numbers are good.
We could have 75 new people on vents for the next 10 days and not know it because we don’t know the number of deaths on vent or recoveries on vent.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 12:43 pm
0
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:42 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
No we shut down earlier than them so we have largely avoided the collapse they experienced. You’re welcome.
Or our non socialized health care is worlds better than their socialized healthcare
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:45 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Vent usage dropped significantly. That’s good news.
Do the "vent usage" numbers include the deaths of people that were on them or just people that lived?
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:45 pm to shawnlsu
quote:
Do the "vent usage" numbers include the deaths of people that were on them or just people that lived?
Vents are freed up when people die.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:48 pm to NOFOX
quote:
How is it good news if it comes with one of the bigger jumps in deaths and hospitalizations?
Our goal is to slow/limit the spread of the disease, by reducing the basic reproduction number (R0). Estimates are that this number (where measured) ends up between 2 and 3 - meaning each person will give it to say 2 or 3 people (lets say 2.5).
If we assume the following (I think close enough - hospital data types can chime in).
Patient will start showing symptoms 5 days after exposure, and be contagious a day or so before that (but for simplicity sake, lets say 5 days is when they infect others). They'll take another week or so before needing a vent, and then spend 10 days on a vent before the case resolves itself - either by recovery or death.
We then get: Those who died yesterday were exposed 22-ish days ago (so March 16th). Whereas those who went on the vent were those exposed 12-ish days ago (March 26th).
Getting back to R0:
If: R0 was still the unmitigated 2.5. Each contagious person on March 16th would have infected 2.5 people by March 21st. Those 2.5 people who got infected on March 21st would infect 2.5 more by March 26th.
So, today, if R0 was still 2.5 - for every person coming off the vent (either by death or recovery), there would be 6 or 7 going on the vent (1*2.5*2.5= 6.25).
The fact that this isn't remotely true is great news.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:48 pm to shawnlsu
Either deaths of those on vents OR coming off of vents is what reduces that number. As far as I know, we don't have any idea which scenario caused the drop.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:49 pm to NOFOX
quote:
Vents are freed up when people die.
Fake News! I heard they bury the vent with the deceased!!
Sarcasm on [off]
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:50 pm to NOFOX
quote:Sigh
Vents are freed up when people die.
People just dont want good news
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:53 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Sigh
People just dont want good news
It's a factually true statement. Doesn't mean the news, in the aggregate, is bad. The deaths are largely inevitable as most people who go on vents (because they are older/have underlying health issues) die. The concept of social distancing is to prevent those people from getting exposed in the first place.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:55 pm to Salmon
quote:
I just want to say that I know you and I have went at in the past, but you have done a great job with these threads
Appreciate it, bud.
Who knows what dumb shite I posted to trigger it.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:58 pm to Golfer
quote:
Vent usage is declining even as cases increase and deaths rise. This is a promising outlook.
Can you explain this to me like I’m an idiot please
Posted on 4/7/20 at 12:59 pm to TigersSEC2010
So the low end of LA projected deaths range is bumped up a little from the IMHA model?
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:00 pm to TigersSEC2010
I wonder if hospitalizations have gone up because people are going and being checked in even with moderate symptoms - because of these stories circulating of people dropping dead at home. I mean, 2 weeks ago, if I (36, healthy) had moderate symptoms, I would have managed from home. Today, if I had moderate symptoms, I’m going to the damn hospital and let them monitor me 24/7.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:00 pm to Geaux23
quote:
Can you explain this to me like I’m an idiot please
less people going on vents means less people dying in the future
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:02 pm to Geaux23
quote:
Can you explain this to me like I’m an idiot please
The real threat of this virus is the risk of hospitals reaching capacity. The recent numbers show social distancing is working and that hospitals are still capable of handling patient load. Deaths, while tragic, are from those who were exposed a couple of weeks ago versus the immediate past. Far more important is to make sure people with the virus, especially those who are asymptomatic, are at home/distanced so that its spread is contained.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:03 pm to lsupride87
lsupride aren't you a numbers guy for/at a hospital?
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:06 pm to Btrtigerfan
quote:
Read the hemoglobin thread on the poli board. Vents may be treating it wrong.
I think the underlying proposition is that using vents strictly to increase pressure doesn’t help, but many on the Poli Board have taken that to mean that vents don’t help at all. That’s a big leap when patients are going on vent because they can no longer breathe unassisted.
As for today’s numbers, there’s definitely room for optimism.
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:10 pm to tigerskin
quote:
Deaths are usually from cases that began 2-3 weeks ago (or even longer)
According to the study released by lancet about a week ago, death comes about 18 days after the first symptoms. The symptoms usually start 5-6 days after exposure. So most deaths are in the around 23-24 days from being exposed.
This post was edited on 4/7/20 at 1:19 pm
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:11 pm to NOFOX
quote:
Vents are freed up when people die.
No kidding?
Posted on 4/7/20 at 1:13 pm to tiger91
quote:
Either deaths of those on vents OR coming off of vents is what reduces that number. As far as I know, we don't have any idea which scenario caused the drop.
Thanks for an actual answer.
Wasn't sure if they included deaths in the number of freed up vents or if that was reserved for only people that were successful in getting off the vent without kicking the bucket.
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