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re: Louisiana COVID-19 - April 19, 2020 Update: 23,928 Cases - 141,504 tested - 1,296 dead
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:19 pm to tiger91
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:19 pm to tiger91
In all seriousness I am completely for opening back up so that the economy doesn’t continue to get slammed but what the hell do we do if there is another surge right after opening the flood gates? Quarantine for another 4 months?
3
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:22 pm to PropofolPapi
quote:
what the hell do we do if there is another surge right after opening the flood gates? Quarantine for another 4 months?
Handle it like we did the H1N1 flu and how we handle the seasonal flu
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:24 pm to PropofolPapi
quote:
but what the hell do we do if there is another surge right after opening the flood gates? Quarantine for another 4 months?
Well the delay would probably be about 10-14 days before we would notice the effects
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:26 pm to Golfer
quote:
7-Day Rolling Averages:
7 day trends look promising. Are 14 day avgs going to be used for phase advancements per the Open Up American plan?
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:28 pm to Stevo
quote:
7 day trends look promising. Are 14 day avgs going to be used for phase advancements per the Open Up American plan?
14-Day trendlines mirror the 7-day lines, FWIW.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:30 pm to Stevo
quote:
Are 14 day avgs going to be used for phase advancements per the Open Up American plan?
It would make sense as Trump said he'd want the governor's to monitor the trends for 14 days before advancing to the next Phase
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:31 pm to Golfer
quote:
14-Day trendlines mirror the 7-day lines, FWIW.
should be good news come May 1. I believe that the Plan suggests downward trajectory over 14 day period of time for phase advancement.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 12:34 pm to TigersSEC2010
when is LA going to start reporting "current" stats?
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:00 pm to PropofolPapi
quote:
In all seriousness I am completely for opening back up so that the economy doesn’t continue to get slammed but what the hell do we do if there is another surge right after opening the flood gates? Quarantine for another 4 months?
Hospitalizations are down for 6 days, and I think we have lots of capacity on that front. Vents trend is doing good too.
Plus, I'm no expert, but it seems unlikely future upturns would be as high as the initial wave. People know more about precautions Doctors know more about how to handle things. Suppliers have had time to ramp up. Some percentage of the population has the antibodies in them. If warm weather makes a difference, that is upon us.
As long as people don't freak out at any little rise when things start going back, I think it will work out.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:25 pm to Methuselah
quote:
As long as people don't freak out at any little rise when things start going back, I think it will work out.
Destroya is in charge of the biggest city in the state & Honor Code runs the state. Will be tough for them not to freak out since they want to micromanage everything from their respective thrones.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:38 pm to meldawg399
You dumbass Politards (redundant) running down JBE fail to realize that he's following Trump's guidance.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:43 pm to TigersSEC2010
shite, man. Cases and deaths still aren't decreasing.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 1:51 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
shite, man. Cases and deaths still aren't decreasing.
Did you not look at Golfer's graphs?
Posted on 4/19/20 at 2:15 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
Let the sick and elderly WFH or shelter in place for another month if necessary.
They can shelter in place forever if they arent contributing to economy
Posted on 4/19/20 at 2:16 pm to Stevo
quote:
You dumbass Politards (redundant) running down JBE fail to realize that he's following Trump's guidance.
I think we need more detailed data to really make good decisions. The new cases added today outpace some days after the stay-at-home order was in place. How many of those cases are from drive-thru testing completed 5+ days ago? How many are new cases from patients admitted or tested at hospitals or clinics in the last 24-48 hours.
I was critical at first of Destroya's parade cancellations, but in hindsight the decisions she & Honor Code made probably saved many lives. I'd rather them keep everything shut down a week too long than open up, shut down with a new spike, open up again, shut down with a new spike.
I think May 1, if these declines continue, we can reopen certain selected businesses. Then May 15, open up some more businesses, and maybe June 1 take all sanctions away.
I do think if (or when) we see a spike after reopening, they're likely to close stuff up again. Their major constituencies are disproportionately affected by COVID (AKA the majority of LA's population doesn't educate themselves on current events and isn't smart enough or responsible enough to practice the safest and best habits as recommended by experts).
Anecdotally, I was talking to one drive-thru worker about it, and when I told him the horror stories I was hearing from medical professionals about COVID & its effects, he responded well if you're meant to get it, you're meant to get it. Making no changes to your life is the best way to make sure yourself and others close to you get it. The stay-at-home orders and the steps taken by the public have affected the spread rate, number of cases, hospitalization, and death rates. If we choose to be responsible, we can knock this thing out (or down pretty hard)-not many folks here are willing to do that.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 2:30 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
shite, man. Cases and deaths still aren't decreasing.
Dropping deaths will lag.
The fact that cases are not dropping is not unexpected and is due to increased testing. For a while, with increased numbers of tests being done, there will be an increased number of cases. But, the declining number hospitalizations means a lot of the new positive tests are patients w/ mild cases that do not require hospitalization. Remember, the idea of "flattening the curve" is not to decrease the total number of cases, but to decrease the peak of the curve (the "surge") so the health care system is not overwhelmed; "flattening the curve" spreads out the same number of cases over a longer period of time w/ a lower peak in the curve.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 2:35 pm to LSUBoo
quote:
shite, man. Cases and deaths still aren't decreasing.
Cases look like they are decreasing to me. At this point, recoveries are probably outpacing new cases. You just never hear about those.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 2:39 pm to SloaneRanger
What ls the average rate of positives in the daily test results? Is that decreasing? That’s a key indicator.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 3:17 pm to TigerOnThe Hill
quote:
ire hospitalization. Remember, the idea of "flattening the curve" is not to decrease the total number of cases, but to decrease the peak of the curve (the "surge") so the health care system is not overwhelmed; "flattening the curve" spreads out the same number of cases over a longer period of time w/ a lower peak in the curve.
So we were told, but that is no longer the narrative. They dropped that a week ago.
Posted on 4/19/20 at 3:50 pm to Nature Boy
If this thing got a second set of legs during Easter those cases should be starting to become symptomatic. Here’s to hoping the numbers stay reasonable this week!
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