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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:18 pm to
Posted by Jwho77
cyperspace
Member since Sep 2003
84339 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

HTOWNTIGER1


I know someone who won't be getting any rice in their Christmas stocking.
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

It’s 2020 I wouldn’t be surprised if this sucker hits right in the middle of Louisiana. Just been that kind of year lol.


Careful... I said basically this about 100 pages ago and was booed off stage....
Posted by purple18
Lafayette
Member since Aug 2009
1789 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

i don't know what to think anymore since marco was projected to be a landfalling hurricane that turned into hardly anything because it got sheared apart that wasn't shown in earlier projections



Exactly and now the “experts” tell us to trust the models for Laura but when you look at what’s happening at this moment with Laura, it’s showing a more northwest track
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177436 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:19 pm to
Time to start placing bets on how the track shifts at 4 pm. Time to listen to those gut feelings.

Posted by Festus
With Skillet
Member since Nov 2009
86128 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

GEAUXmedic

When is the next major update, and what is the update you think is that's gonna really nail the track down?
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14324 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:20 pm to
HRRR mesoscale model is a little east of the global and hurricane models. This is just one possibility that one of the experts like Rds or Duke could maybe explain why it is not a main model for tropical weather.

Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18624 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:20 pm to
My prediction was Vermillion Bay Cat 3.

They were mean to me.
Posted by JudgeHolden
Gila River
Member since Jan 2008
18566 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

Is that premium membership a real thing?????


Sure is. Just Venmo me @gmail.com. I can get you in for a small initiation fee.
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50860 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

Time to start placing bets on how the track shifts at 4 pm.

East closer to Lake Charles but no further than 10 miles east of Lake Charles.
This post was edited on 8/25/20 at 3:23 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
42053 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

When is the next major update, and what is the update you think is that's gonna really nail the track down?



4pm, hopefully 10pm.
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Not Phillytiger9
Member since Dec 2015
11866 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:21 pm to
Calcasieu Lake

#GutFeeling
Posted by jimbeam
University of LSU
Member since Oct 2011
75703 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:22 pm to
Johnson. Bayou.
This post was edited on 8/25/20 at 3:22 pm
Posted by Festus
With Skillet
Member since Nov 2009
86128 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:22 pm to
quote:

4pm, hopefully 10pm.

Appreciate you.
Posted by bnb9433
Member since Jan 2015
14833 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:22 pm to
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105337 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:23 pm to
I just got a call from the Governor, informing me there's a hurricane on the way.
Posted by Hamma1122
Member since Sep 2016
22336 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:23 pm to
80 miles is huge. I saw during Katrina what a difference of damage 20 miles had
Posted by Impotent Waffle
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2007
10129 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

My prediction was Vermillion Bay Cat 3.

They were mean to me. 


I am here for ya, baw.. They are ruthless fricks
Posted by Splackavellie
Bayou
Member since Oct 2017
12761 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:24 pm to
Tell him to frick off.
Posted by MWP
Kingwood, TX via Monroe, LA
Member since Jul 2013
11060 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

Johnson. Bayou.



Damn that would frick some shite up in Hackberry....
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/25/20 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

This is just one possibility that one of the experts like Rds or Duke could maybe explain why it is not a main model for tropical weather.


Convective allowing models do funky things with tropical systems because of the schemes they use to depict the impact of convection (how this works is more complicated than this thread needs).

Depending on the scheme, you can get some crazy shite like the 3kNAM.

What they are good for in tropical systems is checking rainfall and seeing if they start throwing up big numbers. The NAM first and HRRR soon after starting throwing out biblical numbers on Harvey as an example.

But they aren't going to nail you track and intensity. It's why we made hurricane specific models.
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