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re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:36 pm to geauxtigers87
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:36 pm to geauxtigers87
quote:
That looks more north to me those last couple of frames
Y'all are going to make yourselves crazy wobble watching.
Shear let off which was pushing convection south. In the short term it moves a little NW as the northside starts to build and wrap around. It's probably going to come back west some as this SW burst keeps cooking. You're seeing wobbles because of the organization process, not because the steering isn't as expected.
3
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:37 pm to LSURussian
Those last few frames show “Marco” trying to push north against the ridge? Looks like he might be making some northerly progress or is he wobbling too?
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:37 pm to EveryoneGetsATrophy
Holy shite, its raining hard in South BR. Also to me, in that feed Laura is moving N/NW or am I just loop stupid?
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:37 pm to The Boat
quote:
Excuse the path of Marco still on there but you can see Laura has been moving much more towards the eastern side of the projected path and even outside the cone for a while now. Almost NW while the forecast track has it moving barely WNW right now.
I think there is some small details the models are having issue with, and that is the remnants of Marco. Perhaps Marco left a slight weakness causing the ridge to take a little longer to build in, so that WNW motion may happen later, or not at all. I’m just speculating and asking here, I’m not an expert so don’t shred me
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:38 pm to Impotent Waffle
Loop stupid
I like it
I like it
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:38 pm to Duke
Classic organizational wobbling or OW.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:39 pm to Triple CB
quote:
Expect a few more runs to come back and push the track east a bit. Some moderate wind shear has it tracking further east.
Wind shear doesn't steer a hurricane. If it did Marco would have been in Great Britain by now.
Bunch of pro mets up in here.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:39 pm to GEAUXmedic
Said it two hours ago, she is East if the 700 AM advisory. This is a Vermillion Bay storm. I would keep my eye on it if I lived within 20 miles East or West of New Iberia.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:39 pm to michael corleone
quote:
Said it two hours ago, she is East if the 700 AM advisory. This is a Vermillion Bay storm. I would keep my eye on it if I lived within 20 miles East or West of New Iberia.
Don't do this to me
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:40 pm to bayoudude
quote:
Not to mention a swath of 70+ mph winds across the entire length of TN...
That’s just insane
That's what we ended up with in Kentucky after Ike. Sustained 60-80 mph winds for about two hours. Ended up with no power and a ton of trees down/damage for almost two weeks.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:41 pm to burdman
Is Houston about to be in the clear or is next advisory moving towards the west?
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:42 pm to BluegrassBelle
I'm not worried unless she misses her next forecast point.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:42 pm to LSUsmartass
In St Francisville I remember Rita being worse than Katrina for some reason
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:42 pm to deltaland
When looking at the seemingly NW jog recently, it's important to remember that the earth is round. When looking at the satellite, watching the "jog" to the NW, remember that you're looking at it from a flat perspective. The earth is round and satellite usually distorts the way it looks. Therefore a seemingly NW jog is usually not all that "NW" and just a mind frick of an eye trick.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:42 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
quote:
I remember Rita being worse than Katrina for some reason
Rita was worse in the BR area than Katrina was. We were on the west side of Katrina.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:42 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
it's important to remember that the earth is round
debatable
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:43 pm to FelicianaTigerfan
I thought the Felicianas were unscathed for both Rita and Katrina 
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:43 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
When looking at the seemingly NW jog recently, it's important to remember that the earth is round. When looking at the satellite, watching the "jog" to the NW, remember that you're looking at it from a flat perspective. The earth is round and satellite usually distorts the way it looks. Therefore a seemingly NW jog is usually not all that "NW" and just a mind frick of an eye trick.
So the center location that the NHC is putting out on their advisory are “just a mind frick” too?? When you compare their projected points to where Laura is currently located, she is well north of what the NHC projected for this current time
This post was edited on 8/25/20 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:43 pm to Duke
quote:
Y'all are going to make yourselves crazy wobble watching. Shear let off which was pushing convection south. In the short term it moves a little NW as the northside starts to build and wrap around. It's probably going to come back west some as this SW burst keeps cooking. You're seeing wobbles because of the organization process, not because the steering isn't as expected.
I can't tell if these randoms popping in saying expect a more easterly shift in the next few hours know anything about anything or just playing storm tracker and watching these wobbles.
Obviously I recognize the names of posters more educated and trustworthy, but people making a definitive statement like I've seen is annoying as frick.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 2:43 pm to burdman
quote:
debatable
Aw frick did I just inadvertently derail this thread?
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