re: Laura - President Trump visits Lake Charles, Louisiana for Hurricane Response Update

quote:

---

hat you are doing is being a massive douche. People are searching for valuable info, from the people who know what they are talking about. Nobody wants to read through your constant BS to find it.

---

Where?

Where am I being a douche. Give me a specific example today.

Stop the derailment and frick off.

quote:

---

Let’s pound beers

---

Good idea. I don't want to start a shite slinging.

quote:

---

Does a stronger/weaker storm factor in if it will make the Turn to the north earlier/later?

---

Sometimes it does but in this case it really doesn't matter.

Meteorologist Nick Mikulas

quote:

---

This afternoon brings a bit more clarity to the forecast, though specific impacts are still up in the air. The basics are, the threat from Marco in Central Louisiana is diminishing, and the threat from Laura is increasing. Here are the details.

Hurricane Marco…

LOCATION...25.8N 87.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Marco continues to fight against moderate wind shear, and has done a heck of a job holding its own. It looks like Marco could maintain strength, or start to weaken before landfall, but the prospects for strengthening are quite low. This could still be a hurricane at landfall, and will definitely cause some surge flooding issues along the coast, but it looks like Marco will really start to weaken tomorrow evening, regardless of the exact track. Even though Marco is closer to landfall, the track guidance is much more chaotic than Laura. It looks like Marco will bend to the west around landfall, with some models even suggesting that Marco won’t make landfall at all. I still think Marco moves in somewhere near Grand Isle, most likely as a strong tropical storm or category 1 hurricane. For us in the middle of the state, look for a few bands of rain, some of which could briefly be heavy, and a nice breeze. I don’t foresee any major power outage issues, or flooding in our area from Marco.

Tropical Storm Laura…

LOCATION...19.5N 75.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

Laura continues to defy logic, as it has slowly strengthened as parts of the circulation have been over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and southeastern Cuba for the last day or so. Laura has stayed on the southern end of the model guidance, and that could allow more time over water, as the circulation center is forecast to be very near, or just south of the coast of Cuba. The official forecast is for Laura to remain a strong tropical storm until it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Laura become a hurricane sooner than that, if it misses most of Cuba. By the time Laura enters the Gulf, conditions will be nearly perfect for strengthening up until landfall, unless something changes. It’s not impossible that the remnants of Marco could have a little negative impact on Laura’s strength, but I’m not banking on that outcome. The official forecast brings Laura to just below category 3 strength before a landfall near the Louisiana Texas border. Models are fairly tightly clustered for a landfall that is 3 1/2 days away, and it seems like Houston to Morgan City will be the main threat zone.

This obviously puts us near enough to the path of Laura to feel the effects. Exactly how that shakes out remains to be seen, but a worst case scenario would be a major hurricane making landfall Wednesday night, and moving directly through the area. This is entirely possible, but before I’m able to put numbers on wind speeds and rainfall, I’ll just say that you need to prepare for the possibility of several days without power. I know it would help the power crews immensely, if Marco decides to weaken, or miss land altogether, so they can focus on the issues Laura will almost certainly bring. Laura should have a steady forward motion after landfall, with a forward speed of 12-14 mph. That should make the flooding threat a bit more manageable, though it will definitely still be with us. But that steady forward speed would mean that the storm could stay a hurricane more than 100 miles inland, if it makes landfall as a category 3+. These are still non specific threats, but you should be ready for a potential major impact from Laura. There is still a chance this moves into Houston, and we have more of a fringe hit locally, or that it isn’t quite as strong as it looks like it could be. That being said, I’m leaning toward Laura causing some pretty big problems locally, or very close by. I’ll update as needed.

---

To lighten things up a bit

About to fly into Marco on MS Flight Sim. I will let you guys know whats up.

quote:

---

None. We left for Lili (2002), Rita (2005), and I think Gustav maybe? I know that there was another one and we went to LC.

I hope this doesn't sound ugly but are you saying nicely that we should consider leaving for a 2?? 3 for definite sure. I'm originally from North of I10. When Lili came through, I was like "why do we need to leave?" -- it was my first experience with a hurricane. My husband very nicely said pack your shite, we're leaving.

---

If you've ever spoken to someone who stayed through a direct hit, even a low end storm like a 1/2 is typically a terrible experience. The problem is that it only really applies to those in the direct isolated wind areas, yet you don't know exactly who will get it until it's too late for most to leave.

Lili is a great example. Much of Acadiana left, but only those in Intercoastal City and extreme southern parts of Vermillion Parish had any substantial wind impacts. The surge impacts were widespread, but most people know they're prone to that. The problem was the people who left in Lafayette and New Iberia who felt like they were duped, or the people who stayed and now think they've ridden out a hurricane.

My suggestion would be pretty simple - if you're expected to get hurricane force winds, you should leave if you have the means. If you're expected to get surge, that's a no brainer.

You people need to leave Slackster alone.

quote:

---

If I lived in perry I would of left for those also
Anywhere south of 14 in vermillion parish i wouldn’t stay

---

For either Rita or Lili, the sheriffs deputies drove through our neighborhood making sure everyone who was still home at that point had plans to leave -- I told them we definitely were just hadn't done so yet. I think we had to give some contact info as well.