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Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:22 pm to msutiger
quote:
Yep, further west it goes, the stronger it will be (More time over the warm gulf water). I think HWRF model is showing Cat 4 around Galveston. I’m no JBE fan, but this isn’t fear mongering
In this case, the stronger it is the deeper(taller) it is and the more it will feel the ridge push it west. It's not so much the western track making it stronger as the storm being stronger makes it take a more western track.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:22 pm to slackster
quote:
My comment is just asking how many people in this thread have actually ridden out a hurricane and where did they do it? My suspicion is very, very few have actually experienced sustained hurricane force winds.
I've ridden out every storm and hurricane from 1961 through today with two exceptions - Katrina we went to Houston and one I can't remember the name of sometimes in the early 2000's when we left and for some reason ended up in Montgomery.
Rode all the rest out in River Parishes with the exception of Gustav which, in another head-scratcher, we decided to ride out in Baton Rouge at my sister-in-law's house.
Things I remember as notable:
Betsy - I was only five so I don't remember much except sleeping on a blanket in the hallway and the fact that two trees were blown down blocking a couple hundred feet of the road in front of our house and our parents allowed even us young ones to ride out bikes in the road afterwards because no cars could pass. Things I have been told - a house across a field from us lost its entire roof during the storm; my grandfather started to burn palms in a pot on the stove and my father took exception, the church we attended was destroyed and people had to wait in line for ice and water.
Camile - we went to a grain elevator where my brother worked with thick concrete walls, but the storm hooked to Mississippi at the last minute.
Andrew - stayed at my mother in law's house and I kept checking out this huge pine tree in their back yard which
I was worried was going to snap.
Katrina we returned from Houston a day or two after the storm and when I pressed the garage door opener and it opened showing we had power I was very thankful we were on the same line as the local hospital.
Gustav - people praying the rosary in the hallway and a wooden fence on the side of the house losing some boards.
I also remember going to Biloxi not long after being married and there was a small tropical storm or depression raking the coast and we decided we'd go swimming in the gulf anyway. I dunno why other than we were young and in love.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:23 pm to bigberg2000
quote:
He is a dunce because he wants people to be safe?
He is a dunce and it has nothing to do with his accurate assessment of the potential strength of Laura.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:23 pm to Methuselah
Laura looks bigger than Marco. I think Marco might knock over a chair for me tomorrow.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:23 pm to slackster
quote:
We might see a repeat of 2005 Rita
One of the top 5 in terms of intensity of all storms ever recorded in the gulf? I doubt it.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:27 pm to slackster
Latest HMON that just finished runnning...
Strong Cat 3 / Borderline Cat 4

Strong Cat 3 / Borderline Cat 4

Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:27 pm to slackster
I hope she rides the spine of Cuba. Then..I guess we should hope for Marco to linger and enhance the mid layer shear?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:27 pm to stout
quote:
One of the top 5 in terms of intensity of all storms ever recorded in the gulf? I doubt it.
Read the entire post good sir, but nice attempt at a gotcha.
The Rita evacuation in Houston killed 25 times more people than the storm did in Louisiana.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:28 pm to slackster
Honestly making landfall at TX/LA line isnt the worst place. Relatively sparsely populated
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:29 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
HMON
Notorious a-hole as far as intensity goes. Not as bad as the old HMON though
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:29 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Honestly making landfall at TX/LA line isnt the worst place. Relatively sparsely populated
For direct wind impacts, yes.
Unfortunately, storms that landfall there push water up across all of LA down to Terrebonne Parish.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:29 pm to NorthEndZone
Laura is going that far west now? 
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:30 pm to slackster
quote:
The Rita evacuation in Houston killed 25 times more people than the storm did in Louisiana.
3000 people died evacuating?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:30 pm to slackster
quote:
We might see a repeat of 2005 Rita clusterfrick if the 18z GFS pans out for Laura. Basically heading directly to Houston until it finds the edge of the ridge and shoots north to Port Arthur.
Aren’t the GFS ensembles starting to trend back east?
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:31 pm to slackster
quote:
Unfortunately, storms that landfall there push water up across all of LA down to Terrebonne Parish.
That happens no matter what though
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:31 pm to stout
quote:
3000 people died evacuating?
Rita killed 1 person in Louisiana.
Posted on 8/23/20 at 6:32 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Honestly making landfall at TX/LA line isnt the worst place. Relatively sparsely populated
Nah... That puts me East of it. No thanks. Let it hit some other shite hole.
Speaking of shite holes, not sure if I should head to Houston or Shreveport tomorrow. Need to ensure I have internet and electricity for business this week and I live too close to the lake for comfort.
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