re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Wash Post saying Russia fricked Ukraine staaaacked “The front lines have barely moved in more than a week. Russians are being killed or injured at the rate of up to 1,000 a day, according to Western intelligence estimates, and even more according to Ukrainian ones.”

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I just don’t trust our NATO allies not to be stupid. You make it clear to them any action they make must first go through us. If you let your dog off the chain and it mauls someone, you are responsible for it. That’s my perception of the situation at least.

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Pretty much the way NATO has operated since inception. Idk why now would be different.

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The question becomes what happens if Putin is backed into an even smaller corner and decides to nuke Warsaw. Then what?

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If his response to being backed into a corner is to nuke his enemy, we have to let Ukraine fall or hope Putin dies before he gets backed into a corner there, or else he will nuke Lviv and Kyiv.

Edit: I don’t know if we have enough evidence yet that Putin is actually insane. He still seems rational and calculating, if not also ruthless and Machiavellian.

There has to be a breaking point for Russia where every thing will collapse if they don’t find a way to end the war. Who knows when that will be.

To facilitate some sort of ‘save face’ scenario where Putin gets to proclaim some small victory, I’ve been saying that I think at some point, when he can officially negotiate from a place of leverage, Zelensky should offer up Crimea to Russia and independence referendum opportunities to the separatist regions, contingent on fair oversight of the referenda.

In exchange, Russia would have to sign a binding treaty to recognize Ukraine’s full and complete sovereignty and right to join any peaceful organization it so wishes (i.e. namely NATO and the EU).

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or else he will nuke Lviv and Kyiv.

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I find it more likely they would target agriculture or drinking water or use some sort of non-persistent chemical warfare agent, the Russians want to absorb and take over Ukraine. Something that can be done with plausible deniability has more potential value. Based on past history they may botch it though. I think you should still try for arms controls agreements and make what headway you can to ensure nuclear weapons are not used. Certainly these issues go well beyond Russia though.

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rumored US Tier 1 assets

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I've never been in -- would that be highest level, or lowest?

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It doesn't seem that would be worth the paper it's written on, as long as the same kind of guys are in charge of Russia.

I'm guessing we need to see incontrovertible proof of a major change before Russia gets off the hook of being devastated economically.

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Parties external to Ukraine and Russia, can and should, continue economic sanctions while either Putin or a Putinist is in power.

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I've never been in -- would that be highest level, or lowest?

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Tier one is generally considered Seal Team 6 and Delta Force along with some other units that attach to them as enablers. The military calls these units “Special Mission Units” as opposed to regular Green Berets, Army Rangers, the rest of the Navy SEAL teams and Marine Special Operations (Marine Raiders).

You’ll here terms like White SOF/ Black SOF or Tier 1/2/3.

Tier 1/SMU/Black SOF/JSOC(Joint Special Operations Command) are for the most part pretty interchangeable terms. These would be the guys doing extremely high profile raids like killing Bin Laden or high profile rescue operations(Captain Phillips). Also if we do have any US military currently engaged in Ukraine it would be these guys.

The rest of the Tier 2&3/White SOF/SOCOM units do less classified shite or act in support of the JSOC dudes.

(no message)

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I just don’t trust our NATO allies not to be stupid. You make it clear to them any action they make must first go through us. If you let your dog off the chain and it mauls someone, you are responsible for it. That’s my perception of the situation at least.

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If Belarus with or without Russia begins to mass troops and equipment on the border with Poland that will be a trigger point. I expect Belarus to do something stupid.