re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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With Trumps inuaguration, I believe we are entering the end phase of the war. What do you think the basics of the final settlement will be?

Ukraine returns what lands it holds in Kursk
Ukraine gives up NATO membership
Ukraine retains the right to self-defense
Russia keeps Crimea
Russia retains the land it currently controls
Russia gets the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
Russia gives up its claim on what land it doesn't control in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts. This leaves Ukraine with ports on the Black Sea (Odesa and Mykolaiv), which I think will be significant for them.

I think there will be a couple of sticky points to be negotiated in the final settlement, namely reparations and war crimes.

What do you think?

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This is a good outline however it is a bit early in the process for me to choose. Lots of things can change in the short term. Let’s look at it from a needs-based perspective to try to see what results are most likely. What does Trump need, what does Putin need and what does Ukraine need. Not want but need. I would add Europe/NATO to this list but they won’t have a veto in negotiations so to speak. Now that they’re weaned off Russian energy, their deal-killers are the same as Ukraine’s.

Trump - Like most US presidents, he's bored with foreign policy. It’s difficult to understand, changes constantly and can quickly become a tar baby. Plus, the Europeans have been mocking him for decades. What he needs is a quick ‘peace’ that makes him look good and allows him to withdraw from the problem. Trump’s need to look good is more important than actually getting anything done. He doesn’t really see this war as his problem, but it’s a giant stage and he can’t resist that.

Putin – As said before, he absolutely has to have relief from the sanctions and he also needs a ceasefire. These two issues put Putin in a far more vulnerable position than the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian drones and rockets are destroying the Russian economy every night and the sanctions are killing it even faster. Therefore time is not on Putin’s side. But he knows that Trump’s final term in office will be over in four years. Which is just the time he needs to rearm and rebuild the Russian economy, if he gets an end to the sanctions and a ceasefire.

Ukraine – They need assurances of future Western armaments and supplies. They would like a ceasefire as well but know that this helps Putin far more, so that’s not high on their list. Besides, with the current drone campaign, they are winning. That’s why every night without a ceasefire brings Russia further into irreparable harm. So the guarantee of weapons comes first. The issues of occupied land and NATO membership can be resolved later. And there will be a later. Given what he needs, Putin will guarantee that.

Russia is now trying to gain leverage where it has none with one exception – Trump’s lack of interest in a protracted, difficult peace process. That’s Putin’s ace in the hole. He will drag this out endlessly with constant position changes until Trump gets frustrated and decides to just end the sanctions so they can move forward. At that point, Putin wins. His behavior is then accepted by the world’s energy markets, he has funding for his internal security problems, rebuilding the economy and the furtherance of the aggression against Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan. Plus the hybrid war against the West. All his problems are solved with one decision by Trump.

But here’s Putin’s dilemma - he needs to have a fast ceasefire to call off the C4 flying in from Ukraine every night but also needs to drag out the negotiations endlessly to create leverage against the sanctions. But a ceasefire will be a Ukrainian decision. Yes, subject to Western leverage in regards to their need of weapons, but the US is not their sole source of armaments. The European NATO members have been and will be very supportive in this regard. They have much more to lose than the US. Besides, everyone is getting addicted to the video war porn of Russian shite blowing up every night. No one’s in a rush to stop that.

Finally, this negotiation will just be the first of many. Without the current sanctions, the Russians will ignore agreements and never cease their aggression. Just like their philosophy with disinformation campaigns, they will work to keep everything constantly in flux and confusing, thus encouraging their opponents to get frustrated and withdraw. With Russia, if you want peace, you must keep your boot on their throat with full sanctions. Sanctions are the answer, sanctions are the answer, sanctions are the answer.


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Coeur, there's a lot I agree with in your analysis, and there's a lot that I don't.

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What he needs is a quick ‘peace’ that makes him look good and allows him to withdraw from the problem. Trump’s need to look good is more important than actually getting anything done. He doesn’t really see this war as his problem, but it’s a giant stage and he can’t resist that.

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I believe that one of President Trump's primary foreign policy goals for this administration is for him to win the Nobel Peace Prize, so I mostly agree with this.

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Putin – As said before, he absolutely has to have relief from the sanctions and he also needs a ceasefire. These two issues put Putin in a far more vulnerable position than the Ukrainians. The Ukrainian drones and rockets are destroying the Russian economy every night and the sanctions are killing it even faster. Therefore time is not on Putin’s side. But he knows that Trump’s final term in office will be over in four years. Which is just the time he needs to rearm and rebuild the Russian economy, if he gets an end to the sanctions and a ceasefire.

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I disagree with most of this. The Russian public would see a ceasefire right now as a defeat. I think that the minimum goal of Russia in this war was the conquest of the Donbas. Without Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, I don't think that Putin can sell a ceasefire as anything other than complete humiliation of Russia.

That's the single biggest problem that Trump faces in trying to get a ceasefire, and it isn't going away. That's why I don't think that we're at the endgame yet: Russia isn't going to seriously come to the table until it gets much more desperate.

People on this board frequently try to say that Ukraine missed its chance at peace in Istanbul (with the regular false claims that Boris Johnson scuttled a potential deal), but the truth is that Putin missed his chance. That was the last opportunity he had to actually take a W. A ceasefire only makes every Russian angry that they gave up so many Russian lives for a few destroyed towns.

And, as I've said repeatedly, I don't think that the Russian economy is anywhere near a collapse -- I think that's a year away, barring substantial change. And that's why Trump is going to have to impose substantial pain on the Russian economy. He's already working on that, in the form of much lower oil prices, but it's going to take more than that.

Both Ukraine and Russia cannot continue to fight this war as it has been fought. Russia has completely depleted its artillery reserves (buying artillery from the Norks is only a temporary fix) and is rapidly approaching the same point with its armored vehicles (why we see more and more unsupported infantry assaults) And while more attention is paid to Ukraine's manpower issues than Russia's, Russia is now having to pay absurdly high enlistment bonuses to maintain its force structure, and that problem is getting worse, not better.

Ukraine continues to struggle in several areas. Part of it is manpower, and a lot of those problems could've been prevented by better rotation and troop management. Ordinary Ukrainians see getting enlistment or getting drafted as a one-way ticket to the front. That's also created the problems with desertion, because guys would never get rotated out and would eventually get to the breaking point where they would just leave, and commanders understood and hoped they'd return (most eventually do), and so desertion came to be unofficially tolerated.

Ukraine also still doesn't have nearly enough weapons, jets, etc. to equip its troops. The Europeans basically gave Ukraine everything that they have, and there aren't significant reserves of old equipment left in the armies of our NATO allies.

The US, by contrast, has many thousands of Bradleys, Abrams, Strykers, etc. mothballed in long-term storage, but Biden didn't want to give Ukraine too much of that, because he didn't want Ukraine to win. Now, the question is whether or not Trump wants to give any of it to Ukraine. I think that he will be hesitant to give Ukraine much more than ammo, until Putin finally makes him truly angry.

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Russia is now trying to gain leverage where it has none with one exception – Trump’s lack of interest in a protracted, difficult peace process. That’s Putin’s ace in the hole. He will drag this out endlessly with constant position changes until Trump gets frustrated and decides to just end the sanctions so they can move forward. At that point, Putin wins. His behavior is then accepted by the world’s energy markets, he has funding for his internal security problems, rebuilding the economy and the furtherance of the aggression against Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan. Plus the hybrid war against the West. All his problems are solved with one decision by Trump.

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Completely disagree. That simply won't work. The EU is America's largest trade partner. It's ridiculous to think that Trump could sell out Ukraine and Europe will meekly go along.-- they are too aware of their own vulnerability for that. If Trump tries to sell out Ukraine, the EU will simply double down to funding and supplying Ukraine, and the war won't end. And that doesn't get Trump a Nobel Peace Prize. If he were going to sell out Ukraine, he wouldn't be telling the Saudis that we need $45 oil.

My conclusion is that real negotiation doesn't start until there's a real crisis of some kind in Russia. And I think that's months away, at least.

I'm not going to argue with Lord Bebo.

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I'm not going to argue with Lord Bebo

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That's NATOs General Secretary Mark Rutte in the Video telling you Russia produces in 3 months what all of NATO produces in a year. Also Russia produces it for less money. So I guess you know more that he does.

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That's NATOs General Secretary Mark Rutte in the Video telling you Russia produces more bullshite in 3 months than all of NATO produces in a year

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Well, he's certainly right about that.

If GOP_Tiger is making a prediction, just come back in 2-3 weeks and it will be wrong. You can take that to the bank every day and twice on sundays.

Thanks for the extensive reply. Here are my thoughts -

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I believe that one of President Trump's primary foreign policy goals for this administration is for him to win the Nobel Peace Prize, so I mostly agree with this.

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If Obama can get one, why not? But of course, Obama didn't wish to get involved in Ukraine.

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The Russian public would see a ceasefire right now as a defeat.

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The Russian public counts for zero in this calculation. They will believe what they're told to believe. The oligarchs/siloviki are different, they will know the truth. But as it's their livelihoods that are getting destroyed every night, they will get behind a ceasefire.

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That's the single biggest problem that Trump faces in trying to get a ceasefire, and it isn't going away. That's why I don't think that we're at the endgame yet: Russia isn't going to seriously come to the table until it gets much more desperate.

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Agree, but the Russians are much closer to desperation than 12-18 months as commonly believed. At the current rate of drone attacks, assuming Putin gets the truth, they will be 'open to take proposals' far sooner. Either that or they will lose their entire energy industry plus a lot more. Within six months. With the Biden restrictions gone and ability of the Ukrainians to produce their own drones in increasing numbers, things will come to a head sooner than expected.

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And, as I've said repeatedly, I don't think that the Russian economy is anywhere near a collapse -- I think that's a year away, barring substantial change. And that's why Trump is going to have to impose substantial pain on the Russian economy. He's already working on that, in the form of much lower oil prices, but it's going to take more than that.

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I can see your point, we just have to remember that economic collapse doesn't approach in a linear fashion. Historically the trouble accelerates and the decline takes the shape of the downhill side of a bell curve. Except without a soft landing. Note the drop in central bank liquid reserves last month compared to the previous 12 months. Thirty percent in thirty days. As Hemingway said, 'Bankruptcy comes gradually, then suddenly.' Its accelerated arrival always confounds the experts.

I agree with you on Ukrainian manpower and Russian equipment concerns, but neither of these are issues that will force parties to negotiate. They don't blink in that part of the world.

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The US, by contrast, has many thousands of Bradleys, Abrams, Strykers, etc. mothballed in long-term storage, but Biden didn't want to give Ukraine too much of that, because he didn't want Ukraine to win. Now, the question is whether or not Trump wants to give any of it to Ukraine. I think that he will be hesitant to give Ukraine much more than ammo, until Putin finally makes him truly angry.

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Yes, let's just hope Trump gets pissed off and starts reaching for the Bradleys early and often. Maybe every time Putin says no, overtly or not, another big shipment of US arms heads over. Keep the pressure on. This would be a much better solution than throwing up his hands in frustration and deciding to rethink the sanctions. As you point out, he has options.

Finally, as to the sanctions, the EU members have the ability to maintain sanctions independently of the US regime (and will), however the US controls the US markets. The recent 180 towards accepting Russian cargos we have seen in the last two weeks by the Indians and Chinese were due to this fact. Without access to US markets, any serious commercial organization in the world will be ring fenced and die a slow death. New Delhi and Beijing both understand this.

The sanctions are working and becoming more effective now that the Biden staff finally took off the gloves. Undercutting the price of oil would also be great, but with no markets open for Russian oil, it won't matter.