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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/15/25 at 4:13 am to cypher
Posted on 1/15/25 at 4:13 am to cypher
quote:This needs repeating. The primary threat to Putin is the Russian interest rate, not the inflation or Ruble collapse. Money is a commodity like everything else and right now it is in very short supply in Russia. A quick and easy solution for Putin would be to access the Russian funds frozen overseas. This must be prevented at all cost.
Putin’s obsession is the sudden collapse of power. That, as he must be realising, is the risk his war economics has set in motion. Making it recede, by increasing access to external resources through sanctions relief, will be his goal in any diplomacy. The west must convince him that this will not happen. That, and only that, will force Putin to choose between his assault on Ukraine and his grip on power at home.
Although the EU and US have shown reluctance towards sending Ukraine amounts from the principal of these investments, a continued program of sending them all investment gains will ultimately be better for Ukraine and more harmful to Russia. Preventing Russian access to these overseas funds is the most important aspect of the sanctions regime.
This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 4:15 am
2
Posted on 1/15/25 at 4:45 am to Coeur du Tigre
CNN
quote:
Top Biden aides have been working to convince European partners to support moving some $300 billion of Russian money into a new escrow account that would be released only as part of a peace deal. The money belongs to the Russian Central Bank and was initially frozen three years ago after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Most of that money is still being held in European banks, though a fraction remains in banks based in the US.
quote:
Senior Biden officials have consulted closely on the idea with President-elect Donald Trump’s national security team, including Sen. Marco Rubio, his secretary of state designee, and Rep. Mike Waltz, tapped for national security adviser.
The Trump camp, according to people familiar with the matter, is generally supportive of the strategy, believing that the seized money could give Russia fresh incentive to come to the negotiating table, with Trump wanting to see a swift end to a war he believes has already gone on too long.
The Europeans, however, are not as keen on the idea and have raised concerns about violating international law if banks confiscate Russia’s money outright.
For more than a year, US officials have worked to ease those concerns and find a way to use the frozen Russian money in a way that could benefit Ukraine. In a deal that was seen as a compromise, G-7 countries agreed last year to use interest that had accrued from the frozen investments, which generate a return each year of about $5 billion, as a loan to Ukraine.
The resulting $50 billion loan would be paid back by the investments’ profit over a decade.
quote:
Senior US officials suggested that Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union party who is poised to become chancellor, is open to the idea of pursuing the strategy – but he hasn’t taken office.
quote:
In a recent interview, Zelensky said he told Trump to instead give the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to them to cement the strength of the Ukrainian military as a kind of security guarantee that Ukraine would want for agreeing to end the war.
“Take money, what we need for our interior production, and we will buy all the weapons from the United States,” Zelensky said. “We don’t need gifts from the United States. It will be very good for your industry, for the United States. We will put money there. Russian money, not Ukrainian, not European.”
Posted on 1/15/25 at 5:54 am to GOP_Tiger
i agree with Zelensky's proposal but highly doubt it will happen.
The current holding financial institutions will only agree to escrow accounts if they maintain control and thus their fees. And they would do the best job of maintaining profitabilty (and tax revenue) anyway. We absolutely do not want to see non-commercial control, i.e. governments. In addition, the bank's lawyers will tie up any proposals involving loss of control (and fees) for decades, so the agreement of the current holding institutions would be required. Not ideal.
Why not continue the system as it stands now? Russia cannot access these funds and Ukraine can. And at very agreeable terms. Like free with more-than-likely loan forgiveness in the future.
The current holding financial institutions will only agree to escrow accounts if they maintain control and thus their fees. And they would do the best job of maintaining profitabilty (and tax revenue) anyway. We absolutely do not want to see non-commercial control, i.e. governments. In addition, the bank's lawyers will tie up any proposals involving loss of control (and fees) for decades, so the agreement of the current holding institutions would be required. Not ideal.
Why not continue the system as it stands now? Russia cannot access these funds and Ukraine can. And at very agreeable terms. Like free with more-than-likely loan forgiveness in the future.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:43 am to John Barron
quote:
You seemed confused.
He seems confused because he is doing what an intern does at US media outlets: copies text from an article and posts the link on social media to promote it. Think about how low on the totem pole someone would have to be to get assigned to do that on a site like TigerDroppings
And if he isn't being paid and is doing it as a hobby, that's just outright sad
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:48 am to Coeur du Tigre
I was surprised to learn that SLB is still operating in russia
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:48 am to GOP_Tiger
I don't really agree with that practice, but Russia can't invade another country then ask to be treated "fairly" in other avenues. Let Ukraine access that money and stop sending them ours.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:53 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 January 2025
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In 2024, Russian courts issued a significant number of fines to journalists or readers of media outlets that the Russian authorities declared "undesirable", according to Russian independent media organisation Mediazona. The majority of these fines were reportedly levied against Latvia-based Meduza, with others including US-funded Radio Liberty / RFE outlets, and exiled Dozhd (Rain) TV also fined. Most fines targeted authors, editors or commentators who contributed to publications.
The fines are almost certainly intended to deter independent media outlets from reporting anything that contradicts or criticises official Russian narratives regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The fines are intended to deter and intimidate those in Russia who engage with independent media and reject government-controlled narratives disseminated via state-controlled media.
This activity fits with a pattern of increased Russian government efforts to control the media and further restrict freedom of speech since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Most independent Russian media has been shuttered or forced abroad, and the Russian government has instituted and enforced increasingly draconian restrictions on citizens' abilities to access foreign media. Russian efforts to constrain independent media will highly likely continue throughout the conflict, reflecting heightened leadership sensitivity to the conflict's inherent potential to impact regime stability.
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 January 2025
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
In 2024, Russian courts issued a significant number of fines to journalists or readers of media outlets that the Russian authorities declared "undesirable", according to Russian independent media organisation Mediazona. The majority of these fines were reportedly levied against Latvia-based Meduza, with others including US-funded Radio Liberty / RFE outlets, and exiled Dozhd (Rain) TV also fined. Most fines targeted authors, editors or commentators who contributed to publications.
The fines are almost certainly intended to deter independent media outlets from reporting anything that contradicts or criticises official Russian narratives regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The fines are intended to deter and intimidate those in Russia who engage with independent media and reject government-controlled narratives disseminated via state-controlled media.
This activity fits with a pattern of increased Russian government efforts to control the media and further restrict freedom of speech since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Most independent Russian media has been shuttered or forced abroad, and the Russian government has instituted and enforced increasingly draconian restrictions on citizens' abilities to access foreign media. Russian efforts to constrain independent media will highly likely continue throughout the conflict, reflecting heightened leadership sensitivity to the conflict's inherent potential to impact regime stability.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:35 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank has sought to dismiss rumours about a possible freezing of retail deposits, which have seen explosive growth in recent months due to rising interest rates aligned with the regulator's benchmark rate.
Russia's benchmark rate rose to 21% last year, marking the highest level since the early years of President Vladimir Putin's rule, as the central bank targets inflation driven by government spending and spiralling wage growth.
Concerned about their savings, Russians inundated the central bank with questions about a possible freezing of deposits as a way to combat the emerging bubble, after retail deposits reportedly grew by one-third in 2024, according to official estimates.
quote:
"This idea [of freezing retail bank accounts] is absurd. Besides being a gross violation of the rights of citizens and companies to manage their assets, such a step would undermine the foundations of the banking system and the financial stability of the country," the [Russian central bank] regulator said on its Telegram channel.
Oh shite, there it is. The Official Denial. It looks like the patriotic support for the Glorious SMO will be instituted soon.
"a gross violation of the rights of citizens and companies to manage their assets"
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:12 am to Coeur du Tigre
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 9:24 am
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:15 am to cypher
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:22 am to John Barron
quote:
You seemed confused. Everyone knew we blew up Nordstream. And everyone predicted German industry would collapse because of it including German officials in 2022
That was predicted for Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands when all of the world scale NEW chemical plants were announced for Texas and Louisiana. As far as Nordstream, only ID!OTs bought the article which made everything up by a longtime hate America far leftist, Sy Hersh, who was known for his fabrications in lieu of facts
You are confused because you know ZERO about life. If you do know anything, they it is because you are desparate to please your lord and savior, Putin..
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:21 am to John Barron
quote:
The head of the German Federation of Trade Unions is not Aaron Mate. His name is Yasmin Fahimi
You are on pace for about 17K posts on here in your first year. Just curious, but do you spend your entire life being consumed by political social media? It can't be healthy, right?
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:37 am to SoonerK
quote:
t can't be healthy, right?
It is very healthy compared to getting deployed to the front lines. Good work if you can get it.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 10:47 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 1/15/25 at 11:23 am to SoonerK
$
Posted on 1/15/25 at 11:42 am to dagrippa
russians struck another apartment building in Kramatorsk...
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 11:45 am
Posted on 1/15/25 at 11:43 am to cypher
Posted on 1/15/25 at 12:05 pm to John Barron
Can you NAFO Fellas at least denounce torturing of Civilians?
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 1/15/25 at 12:11 pm to John Barron
Your video mysteriously cuts out right before the Russian drone humanely killed him 
Posted on 1/15/25 at 12:32 pm to John Barron
NO gas was going through the pipelines. Russia phucked up their own compressors. Thus, no gas was being pushed through them. They were about to spend MORE in contract default penalties and have to pay for LNG from the USA with others. It filed for insurance payment which is in court now.
Neither you nor any of your sources knows anything at all. 100% dullards or bought and paid for.
Try harder, you lost this argument long ago, except in the eyes of losers.
Neither you nor any of your sources knows anything at all. 100% dullards or bought and paid for.
Try harder, you lost this argument long ago, except in the eyes of losers.
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