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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/14/25 at 6:20 pm to John Barron
Posted on 1/14/25 at 6:20 pm to John Barron
Zelensky just seems like such a crayon at times. Nobody better suited to run Ukraine? I know they don’t have elections anymore after he got rid if them. But there’s got to be someone
1
Posted on 1/14/25 at 6:26 pm to texag7
Russia’s war economy is a house of cards
Putin’s privatised credit scheme, meanwhile, is storing up a credit crisis as the loans go bad. The state may bail out the banks — if they don’t collapse first. Given Russians’ experience of suddenly worthless deposits, fears of a repeat could easily trigger self-fulfilling runs. That would destroy not just banks’ but the government’s legitimacy.
Putin, in short, does not have time on his side. He sits on a ticking financial time bomb of his own making. The key for Ukraine’s friends is to deny him the one thing that would defuse it: greater access to external funds.
The west has blocked Moscow’s access to some $300bn in reserves, put spanners in the works of its oil trade and hit its ability to import a range of goods. Combined, these prevent Russia from spending all its foreign earnings to relieve resource constraints at home. Intensifying sanctions and finally transferring reserves to Ukraine as a down payment on reparations would intensify those constraints.
Putin’s obsession is the sudden collapse of power. That, as he must be realising, is the risk his war economics has set in motion. Making it recede, by increasing access to external resources through sanctions relief, will be his goal in any diplomacy. The west must convince him that this will not happen. That, and only that, will force Putin to choose between his assault on Ukraine and his grip on power at home.
Financial Times
Putin’s privatised credit scheme, meanwhile, is storing up a credit crisis as the loans go bad. The state may bail out the banks — if they don’t collapse first. Given Russians’ experience of suddenly worthless deposits, fears of a repeat could easily trigger self-fulfilling runs. That would destroy not just banks’ but the government’s legitimacy.
Putin, in short, does not have time on his side. He sits on a ticking financial time bomb of his own making. The key for Ukraine’s friends is to deny him the one thing that would defuse it: greater access to external funds.
The west has blocked Moscow’s access to some $300bn in reserves, put spanners in the works of its oil trade and hit its ability to import a range of goods. Combined, these prevent Russia from spending all its foreign earnings to relieve resource constraints at home. Intensifying sanctions and finally transferring reserves to Ukraine as a down payment on reparations would intensify those constraints.
Putin’s obsession is the sudden collapse of power. That, as he must be realising, is the risk his war economics has set in motion. Making it recede, by increasing access to external resources through sanctions relief, will be his goal in any diplomacy. The west must convince him that this will not happen. That, and only that, will force Putin to choose between his assault on Ukraine and his grip on power at home.
Financial Times
Posted on 1/14/25 at 6:29 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Germany killed its industry itself
Incorrect. The Ukraine War and blowing up the Nordstream pipeline did that. This chart shows it.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:05 pm to John Barron
quote:
Incorrect. The Ukraine War and blowing up the Nordstream pipeline did that. This chart shows it.
Problems were there way before the war.
Why is Germany the outlier in this chart?
Country's industrial production has shrunk by around 5% over past ten years, with no recovery in sight
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Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:15 pm to John Barron
quote:
Don't worry. I am built for this
How, you have very large intestines?
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:18 pm to John Barron
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:20 pm to cypher
quote:
Why is Germany the outlier in this chart?
That chart is not the same one I posted. "Energy Intensive Industries" had a drastic drop off in Germany after the War started with Russia Sanctions and Blowing up Nordstream.
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If tweet fails to load, click here. Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:26 pm to John Barron
Trump told Germany they were making a mistake. He was right again.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:26 pm to John Barron
quote:
Incorrect. The Ukraine War and blowing up the Nordstream pipeline did that. This chart shows it.
Yep, why do you think Zelensky, citizenK, and the other Ukrainians still won't admit they did it?
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:26 pm to John Barron
ISW Update Jan 14
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine's future membership in NATO.
Patrushev stated that Russia's goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia's war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defense industrial targets in Russia on the night of January 13 to 14.
Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor reportedly caused a brief but widespread internet outage in Russia while operating restriction systems of its Sovereign Internet on January 14.
Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.
Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:27 pm to John Barron
"Ukraine has stopped production at its coking coal mine in Pokrovsk, which feeds the country's steel industry, because of the proximity of advancing Russian forces, two industry sources told Reuters on Monday.
The facility in the embattled city of Pokrovsk is Ukraine's only mine that produces coking coal needed for the country's once giant steelmaking industry, which has withered since Russia's February 2022 invasion."
LINK
The facility in the embattled city of Pokrovsk is Ukraine's only mine that produces coking coal needed for the country's once giant steelmaking industry, which has withered since Russia's February 2022 invasion."
LINK
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:29 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
But a diminished Russia and a stronger (non-US) NATO will largely free up the US to focus on threats from China and Iran. And that's a good thing.
So I guess you support closing all US bases in Europe and removing all US troops from that theatre?
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:32 pm to StormyMcMan
It's objectively funny that Russia was in an effective military stalemate for 2 years with an entity that it doesn't consider a country 
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:34 pm to John Barron
quote:
Incorrect. The Ukraine War and blowing up the Nordstream pipeline did that. This chart shows it.
I guess that their incredibly stupid woke climate change policies had nothing to do with that?
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:34 pm to John Barron
Nord stream wasn't even in use when it was blown up.
From 31 August 2022, Gazprom had halted delivery via Nord Stream 1 indefinitely, officially because of maintenance.
Nord Stream 2 - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended its certification on 22 February 2022.
From 31 August 2022, Gazprom had halted delivery via Nord Stream 1 indefinitely, officially because of maintenance.
Nord Stream 2 - German Chancellor Olaf Scholz suspended its certification on 22 February 2022.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:43 pm to cypher
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:48 pm to John Barron
Lord Bebo - more fake news , not surprising that you would reference it
Nord Stream 1: Gazprom announces indefinite shutdown of pipeline
Nord Stream 1: Gazprom announces indefinite shutdown of pipeline
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:49 pm to John Barron
[quote]Incorrect. The Ukraine War and blowing up the Nordstream pipeline did that. This chart shows it.[/quote
How old are you and have you any understanding of business?
German companies have invested heavily moving manufacturing to the USA for over a decade. They had on small ammonia plant which uses natural gas as feedstock. The rest of their chemical economy uses naphtha from refineries or NGL's, not anything like Nordstream. The day the Shale Revolution began in the USA, German's chemical business was doomed. Nordstream (which wasn't even necessary due the full capacity of the Brotherhood pipeline system could have easily accommodated that increase flow of natural gas.
WTF did Germany do before the first cubic foot came through to be competitive.
You Putin cocksuckers are morons who have zero clue about business.
How old are you and have you any understanding of business?
German companies have invested heavily moving manufacturing to the USA for over a decade. They had on small ammonia plant which uses natural gas as feedstock. The rest of their chemical economy uses naphtha from refineries or NGL's, not anything like Nordstream. The day the Shale Revolution began in the USA, German's chemical business was doomed. Nordstream (which wasn't even necessary due the full capacity of the Brotherhood pipeline system could have easily accommodated that increase flow of natural gas.
WTF did Germany do before the first cubic foot came through to be competitive.
You Putin cocksuckers are morons who have zero clue about business.
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:51 pm to John Barron
Lord Bebo is a moron like you. In fact, all of you sources have an IQ of drool all over themselves when it comes to business and the war itself
Posted on 1/14/25 at 7:54 pm to cypher
quote:
Nord stream wasn't even in use when it was blown up.
You are making my point. Regardless of the reason... Cheap Russian gas stopped flowing to Germany in 2022 and their Energy Intensive Manufacturing Industry collapsed which lines up with this chart.
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