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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:15 pm to texag7
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:15 pm to texag7
Rubio: "This conflict needs to end." Refreshing to hear reality instead of the propaganda and lies that Blinken, Sullivan and Austin have spewed over the last couple of weeks.
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Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:29 pm to Chromdome35
Today sure, 95% of Cypher's lifetime posting in this thread has been sharing Kyiv post or Kyiv Independent articles. JB shares a bunch of different Twitter accounts, not two slanted news outlets repeatedly. But yes you can absolutely (and should absolutely) question the validity of those Twitter accounts
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:41 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
JB shares a bunch of different Twitter accounts, not two slanted news outlets repeatedly.
See, shite like this ruins your credibility. The overwhelming majority of his shares are via 2 very slanted people, not even outlets. The lord bebo and dd geopolitics. Exactly like he spams the poli board with collin rugg and eric daugh shite, incessantly.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 7:49 pm to VolSquatch
Putin to demand Ukraine never join NATO during talks with Trump, Bloomberg reports
by Kateryna Hodunova January 15, 2025 10:17 PM
Russia will demand that Ukraine cut its ties with NATO and become "a neutral state with a limited military" during talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 15, citing its sources.
Trump has previously signaled that he is ready to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin "very quickly" following his inauguration, adding that the Kremlin is also seeking it. Trump has repeatedly reiterated that he plans to end the war in Ukraine swiftly, in part because he allegedly has good ties with Putin.
The Kremlin reportedly accepts that individual NATO member states can continue to send weapons to Ukraine as part of bilateral security agreements, but the weapons "should not be used against Russia or to recapture territory," one of the sources told Bloomberg.
Moscow's position is that it will de facto retain control over almost 20% of Ukraine's territory, including the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014. In the meantime, Russia is allegedly open to exchange some territories, the media outlet reported, citing its sources.
The Kyiv Independent
Footnote: The Kyiv Independent does a good job of summarizing articles that are behind paywalls such as Bloomberg, FT, NYT, etc. I appreciate their effort.
by Kateryna Hodunova January 15, 2025 10:17 PM
Russia will demand that Ukraine cut its ties with NATO and become "a neutral state with a limited military" during talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 15, citing its sources.
Trump has previously signaled that he is ready to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin "very quickly" following his inauguration, adding that the Kremlin is also seeking it. Trump has repeatedly reiterated that he plans to end the war in Ukraine swiftly, in part because he allegedly has good ties with Putin.
The Kremlin reportedly accepts that individual NATO member states can continue to send weapons to Ukraine as part of bilateral security agreements, but the weapons "should not be used against Russia or to recapture territory," one of the sources told Bloomberg.
Moscow's position is that it will de facto retain control over almost 20% of Ukraine's territory, including the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014. In the meantime, Russia is allegedly open to exchange some territories, the media outlet reported, citing its sources.
The Kyiv Independent
Footnote: The Kyiv Independent does a good job of summarizing articles that are behind paywalls such as Bloomberg, FT, NYT, etc. I appreciate their effort.
This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 7:53 pm
Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:09 pm to MoarKilometers
quote:
very slanted people
I also post Rob Lee who is very Pro Ukrainian. It's a very balanced approach
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Posted on 1/15/25 at 8:38 pm to texag7
ISW Update Jan 15
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian forces conducted a large series of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of January 14 to 15.
Ukraine and Russia conducted a one-for-one prisoner of war (POW) exchange on January 15, their first POW exchange in 2025.
A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian drone and artillery capabilities are providing Ukrainian tanks with tactical advantages over Russian tanks in unspecified, select areas of the frontline.
Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky announced on January 15 that Russia will soon provide Transnistria with gas as "humanitarian aid" but did not specify the delivery date or method.
Armenia continues to enhance its relations with Western partners amid waning relations with Russia.
Russian forces recently advanced in the Borova, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk directions.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 15 that about 600,000 Russian soldiers are currently operating in Ukraine.
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:03 pm to cypher
Trump has signaled he agrees with Vlad on this point, as he should
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:04 pm to MoarKilometers
He was resoundingly voted Poli Board poster of the year, which is insane because he didn't really start posting until like July.
This post was edited on 1/15/25 at 9:05 pm
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:39 pm to SirWinston
latest Bond villains episode...
Posted on 1/15/25 at 9:41 pm to SirWinston
quote:
He was resoundingly voted Poli Board poster of the year, which is insane
Insane, but very apropos.
quote:
because he didn't really start posting until like July.
You know we can all see he joined late September, right?
Posted on 1/16/25 at 2:32 am to MoarKilometers
first mention of a USSR resurrection by a russian MP that I've seen...
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Posted on 1/16/25 at 4:53 am to Coeur du Tigre
Craig Kennedy's excellent report (thanks again cypher) is getting a great deal of exposure. This from the Moscow Times site.
A critical point Kennedy demonstrates is the Kremlin's very serious vulnerability to uncontrolled credit event risk. The growing reality is that Russian banks will go tits up due to the massive forced loan program finally becoming unservicable. Corporations forced to take out these loans are being crushed by the current 21% interest rates and clearly cannot continue such payment levels indefinitely.
This time bomb is far more dangerous than inflation, the Ruble fall or even interest rates themselves. Such an event would require massive bailouts to both banks and indebted corporates but even worse, would severely compromise Putin's attempt at projecting strength -
Nothing talks like money or its absence. And importantly, no ceasefire will end this risk. It will continue to defy control and increase in probability no matter what happens with the war.
The only way Putin can avoid the damage from such a bank collapse is to negotiate a ceasefire before it happens. But a fast ceasefire goes against his negotiating position. It's a war of attrition and he believes the longer it lasts, the stronger his hand.
So... recently, parties that have an interest in accelerating the arrival of this 'credit event' have been putting forward discussions of retail bank accounts in Russia being frozen. This kind of talk is the prime method of starting a bank run.
It got so serious that the Russian Central Bank stepped in to formally announce that no seizure of bank accounts would occur. But that predictably failed and now these accusations have escalated to the floor of the Duma.
The Russian public is very gun-shy of bank runs, having experienced them in 2016-17 and again in 2019-20. Both caused by these same off-budget defense funding schemes blowing up. Middle class Russians saw as much as 85% of their savings disappear to 'bank stock equivalent' swaps. So televised discussions in the Duma about another raid is more than just extended bun fights between the Central Bank and the corporate debt holders. Much more.
Tick tock.
A critical point Kennedy demonstrates is the Kremlin's very serious vulnerability to uncontrolled credit event risk. The growing reality is that Russian banks will go tits up due to the massive forced loan program finally becoming unservicable. Corporations forced to take out these loans are being crushed by the current 21% interest rates and clearly cannot continue such payment levels indefinitely.
This time bomb is far more dangerous than inflation, the Ruble fall or even interest rates themselves. Such an event would require massive bailouts to both banks and indebted corporates but even worse, would severely compromise Putin's attempt at projecting strength -
quote:
For Moscow, credit event risk—with its seismically disruptive potential—will be of far more immediate concern than slow-burn risks like declining GDP. Moscow now faces a dilemma: the longer it puts off a ceasefire, the greater the risk that credit events—such as corporate and bank bailouts—uncontrollably arise and weaken Moscow’s negotiating leverage.
Nothing talks like money or its absence. And importantly, no ceasefire will end this risk. It will continue to defy control and increase in probability no matter what happens with the war.
The only way Putin can avoid the damage from such a bank collapse is to negotiate a ceasefire before it happens. But a fast ceasefire goes against his negotiating position. It's a war of attrition and he believes the longer it lasts, the stronger his hand.
So... recently, parties that have an interest in accelerating the arrival of this 'credit event' have been putting forward discussions of retail bank accounts in Russia being frozen. This kind of talk is the prime method of starting a bank run.
It got so serious that the Russian Central Bank stepped in to formally announce that no seizure of bank accounts would occur. But that predictably failed and now these accusations have escalated to the floor of the Duma.
quote:LINK
the Russian Duma is trying to stop the Central Bank's proposal to confiscate all funds from every citizen's bank account of any balance over 1.4 million rubles ($13,300).
The Russian public is very gun-shy of bank runs, having experienced them in 2016-17 and again in 2019-20. Both caused by these same off-budget defense funding schemes blowing up. Middle class Russians saw as much as 85% of their savings disappear to 'bank stock equivalent' swaps. So televised discussions in the Duma about another raid is more than just extended bun fights between the Central Bank and the corporate debt holders. Much more.
Tick tock.
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:03 am to Coeur du Tigre
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
Russia will buy gas for unrecognized Transnistria in Europe
The Russian authorities and unrecognized Transnistria are discussing an option under which Transnistria will receive gas by purchasing it on the European spot market with the help of an intermediary company, while the expenses will be borne by the Russian budget. This is reported by Kommersant.
LINK
quote:
Ukraine will start producing 180, 130 and 110 nm chips: this will require $1 billion, the goal was approved on January 14 in the Innovation Strategy of the Ministry of Digital Affairs.
Production will be able to cover the needs of the defense, agricultural and automotive sectors.
LINK
quote:
Russian assault involving over 40 motorcyclists on the Siversk front.
During five massive enemy attacks on January 14, soldiers of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade destroyed 39 motorcycles, 2 BMPs, 2 vehicles, 2 ATVs, 16 FPVs, and one antenna.
A total of 52 invaders were eliminated, 12 were wounded, and one was captured.
LINK
quote:
A Russian air defense officer was sentenced to nearly 3 years in prison for mistakenly shooting down a Russian helicopter after mistaking it for a Ukrainian drone
Three crew members of the Mi-8 helicopter were killed after a Russian anti-air missile system shot it down down over annexed Crimea on Oct. 18, 2023.
LINK
quote:
The Telegraph has outlined three scenarios for the deployment of western peacekeeping forces to Ukraine:
Scenario 1: Formation of rapid reaction forces by the Western coalition on the front line, which will enter the battle in the event of an attack from the Russian Federation.
Scenario 2: Ensuring the defense of Kyiv by Western troops, which will allow the release of Ukrainian reserves to fight along the contact line.
Scenario 3: Protection of the western border of Ukraine with air defense systems and the formation of Ukrainian troops in these regions under the instruction of NATO countries. Currently, this option is considered the most realistic.
LINK
quote:
"Apparently, we're North Korean now"
"Who said that?"
"Some OSINT guys"
Vietnamese and Laotian cadets enjoying their meal and appreciating the Russian winter next to a column of BMP + BTR + trucks. As tropical countries, Vietnam and Laos seldom experience "true" winters.
LINK
quote:
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has received its 1st load of rails from French producer Saarstahl Rail SAS. The delivery consisted of an approximate 1000 tonnes of rails, but as part of the underlying intergovernmental agreement between France and Ukraine, the latter will get 19,000t. in total
LINK
quote:
Hamas leader thanks Russia and other nations for support
Hamas leader in Gaza and chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya expressed gratitude to countries that supported the "Palestinian people in their struggle against Israel."
"We deeply appreciate the stance of nations that have supported us in various areas, especially Turkey, South Africa, Algeria, Russia, China, Malaysia, and Indonesia," al-Hayya said, according to Kremlin media citing AL Hadad.
This announcement comes as Israel and Hamas reportedly reached an agreement to implement a ceasefire in Gaza starting January 19, alongside a prisoner exchange.
LINK
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:13 am to MoarKilometers
quote:
The overwhelming majority of his shares are via 2 very slanted people, not even outlets. The lord bebo and dd geopolitics. Exactly like he spams the poli board with collin rugg and eric daugh shite, incessantly.
I rarely go on the poliboard, so I wouldn't know that part of it.
I also admittedly don't pay much attention to exactly who he posts because I don't really find Twitter posts that compelling for the most part.
I said my post more accurately described Cypher, not that you couldn't also describe JB in a similar (but differently worded) negative light.
quote:
See, shite like this ruins your credibility.
If the crowd it 'ruins my credibility' with didn't also celebrate proven liars and fraudsters like CitizenK, I would be more concerned about this.
ETA: Its like you ignored this part of my post
quote:
But yes you can absolutely (and should absolutely) question the validity of those Twitter accounts
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 7:15 am
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:17 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Craig Kennedy's excellent report (thanks again cypher) is getting a great deal of exposure.
You're welcome, I also recommend following Craig on twitter for anyone interested in the current financial situation in russia -
Craig Kennedy
@CraigKennedy77
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 7:18 am
Posted on 1/16/25 at 7:27 am to cypher
the morning human safari update from Kherson...
Russians attack Kherson, suburbs with drones, 2 wounded
In Kherson and the suburbs, two people were injured in drone attacks on the morning of January 16.
This was reported on Facebook by the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Ukrinform reports.
“Russians continue to attack Kherson and the suburbs with UAVs. At approximately 09:40, a 62-year-old man sustained an explosive injury and a leg injury in Kindiytsia due to the dropping of explosives from a UAV,” the report says.
The regional state administration added that at about 10:30 a.m. a 68-year-old woman was injured in a drone attack in the Dniprovsky district of Kherson. According to preliminary information, she suffered an explosive injury.
Both victims were hospitalized in moderate condition.
As Ukrinform reported, in the morning, Russian troops fired on the village of Yantarne, Kherson region, and a 92-year-old local resident was injured.
Ukrinform
Russians attack Kherson, suburbs with drones, 2 wounded
In Kherson and the suburbs, two people were injured in drone attacks on the morning of January 16.
This was reported on Facebook by the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Ukrinform reports.
“Russians continue to attack Kherson and the suburbs with UAVs. At approximately 09:40, a 62-year-old man sustained an explosive injury and a leg injury in Kindiytsia due to the dropping of explosives from a UAV,” the report says.
The regional state administration added that at about 10:30 a.m. a 68-year-old woman was injured in a drone attack in the Dniprovsky district of Kherson. According to preliminary information, she suffered an explosive injury.
Both victims were hospitalized in moderate condition.
As Ukrinform reported, in the morning, Russian troops fired on the village of Yantarne, Kherson region, and a 92-year-old local resident was injured.
Ukrinform
This post was edited on 1/16/25 at 7:29 am
Posted on 1/16/25 at 8:10 am to cypher
Posted on 1/16/25 at 9:18 am to John Barron
Posted on 1/16/25 at 9:40 am to John Barron
Posted on 1/16/25 at 10:07 am to John Barron
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