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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:13 pm to
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:13 pm to
quote:

he world has evolved. There aren’t any million man armies unless you consider China.



You and I know that... we're not in Moscow making decisions.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Are we seriously talking about direct routes hundreds of miles long when we've been watching $2000 drones destroy multi-million dollar tanks for 2 years?


Yes, we are... again, stupid as shite to us... be we aren't in Moscow, on those weird nightly talk shows screaming about military matters...
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42619 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:15 pm to
quote:

You and I know that... we're not in Moscow making decisions.


But I believe Putin is using NATO as an excuse. I don’t really believe that he was worried about a NATO invasion through Ukraine.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

“Proposals to freeze the conflict in Ukraine along the line of contact are essentially the same as the Minsk agreements in new packaging; worse, actually”


So you agree this isn't about to end, Lima?
This post was edited on 11/13/24 at 1:25 pm
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:19 pm to
quote:

Yes, we are... again, stupid as shite to us... be we aren't in Moscow, on those weird nightly talk shows screaming about military matters...



Do you think hosts on Fox News or MSNBC screeching about whatever accurately reflects how the government feels on an issue? Because I don't.

Even if you want to use the argument that they are told exactly what to say, that doesn't mean what they are told to say lines up with reality. And more often than not with controlled media it takes the form of more general guidelines about what NOT to say rather than a list of talking points straight from a despot's desk.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Kari Lake in Arizona and Mark Robinson in North Carolina


Those are awful examples



A Hollywood comedy screenwriter could not have thought up something on the level of Robinson... (though, if you've read Vonnegut's great "Mother Night," there's a character in that vein)

but Lake is quite popular on the PT and they took her loss hard... part of it is that those Latino Republican males making a difference for Trump there do not like the idea of women in politics, but also... I think we have 2 elections as proof that people there just don't dig her.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:22 pm to
Well, make sense of Russia's actions, then?

Why invade Ukraine at all?
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

quote:
You and I know that... we're not in Moscow making decisions.


But I believe Putin is using NATO as an excuse. I don’t really believe that he was worried about a NATO invasion through Ukraine.


there's a bunch of factors... but this has been an obsession of every Russian leader, ever. Call it historical PTSD

When Putin was amassing his forces in Belarus and the Ukrainian border, and people were doubting he would invade Ukraine...

I saw a woman on something, maybe PBS, saying "I'm afraid for the past couple of years Putin has been locked in the Kremlin, alone because he's a germophobe in normal times and the COVID thing has to be driving him nuts... but he's stuck there with the old maps and the old writings.. and Trump, who naturally just has a world view and attitude about US foreign policy that benefits Putin in a lot of ways, wasn't re-elected. And he's being given the mortality results for COVID in Russia, which just drives home that he can't ignore that the country is in serious trouble from a Demographic standpoint... and that means his military will be shrinking and shrinking... and he's looking at Ukraine and it does not seem like it will be a challenge to roll over. So, as a first step, he is going to invade it. Then, that makes rallying public support for putting pressure on the Baltic states, if not taking military action on them, easier. A last hurrah for the Russian Empire to stave off shrinking into oblivion."

And she was right.
Posted by VolSquatch
First Coast
Member since Sep 2023
8364 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:38 pm to
quote:


Well, make sense of Russia's actions, then?

Why invade Ukraine at all?


Everyone wants one big reason when I think it was a few smaller ones in conjunction.

If you wanted to boil it down to something as simple as possible, the Putin regime has tried land grabs throughout its existence, and I don't believe its hard to make a case that this is an example of that. . Its at least a large part of it.

I do think potential NATO expansion played a role. I don't believe it was "THE" factor, but it was "A" factor.

I also think there was a bit of 'strike while the iron is hot' in their thinking. They've likely had the structure of a plan ready for years, but it holds water that those plans really accelerated once Biden took office, and then came to fruition in 2022.

I did see one theory that was kind of interesting but may just be cope about Russia not ending the conflict swifly..... It goes like this: Russia more or less knew the war would be a long, drawn out conflict. They knew they could burn resources (mainly people) at a rate that Ukraine could not. Ukraine was on the cusp of potential NATO and possibly EU membership.... So before that happened and Russia had a neighbor with very close historical and even current ties to them that is now starting to seriously outpace them in quality of life and economically, they go grab a huge swathe of Ukraine's land, make a huge chunk of the Ukrainian population flee the country, and collapse Ukraine demographically so all that never happens.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:42 pm to
and actually I thought she was nuts, and that he wouldn't actually do it at the time, because it made no sense.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

I also think there was a bit of 'strike while the iron is hot' in their thinking.


Some have opined that timing played a part because there would be fewer and fewer young Russians to conscript going forward

quote:

I did see one theory that was kind of interesting but may just be cope about Russia not ending the conflict swifly..... It goes like this: Russia more or less knew the war would be a long, drawn out conflict. They knew they could burn resources (mainly people) at a rate that Ukraine could not. Ukraine was on the cusp of potential NATO and possibly EU membership.... So before that happened and Russia had a neighbor with very close historical and even current ties to them that is now starting to seriously outpace them in quality of life and economically, they go grab a huge swathe of Ukraine's land, make a huge chunk of the Ukrainian population flee the country, and collapse Ukraine demographically so all that never happens.


I think I can safely say that Russia did not expect this to last more than a week. Originally it was just a big Psy Op... and Zelensky (a "fool" of an actor out of his league in his position) was supposed to do what most national leaders do when a bigger force invades their country: hop on a jet to safety with his cabinet and family members. That didn't happen... Russians suffered humiliating defeats from lack of seriousness and preparation (aided greatly by corruption in every level of their military)... and the Ukrainians proved themselves worthy resistance, and that emboldened the West to come to their aid (which did not happen in the first hours or days of the invasion, when everybody thought the Russians would quickly prevail and Zelensky was as good as dead). Internal Russian propaganda was also used to convince people it was an easy, short term exercise... and that had to be retooled and then extended, causing some unrest and anger in the population. They thought Ukraine would be a pushover, and that would send a big message to Georgia and some of the -Stans that are starting to want to cast off Russian influence/control... as well as make the Baltic state's populations fearful and maybe more accepting to internally using political means to wiggle out of NATO...
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 1:58 pm to
quote:

Even if you want to use the argument that they are told exactly what to say, that doesn't mean what they are told to say lines up with reality. And more often than not with controlled media it takes the form of more general guidelines about what NOT to say rather than a list of talking points straight from a despot's desk.


If I'm not mistaken, Putin completely controls that broadcast network... and all networks inside Russia, now. And as a former KGB operative, he knows that you have to let some people seem a little rebellious or "off-script" or questioning of things to sell the propaganda... which is why we see some of them sometimes say things and wonder why they haven't fallen out of a window... but milbloogers who go too rogue get imprisoned, remember...
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4355 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

"Trankovsky is a war criminal who gave orders to launch cruise missiles from the Black Sea on civilian targets in Ukraine. In particular, he attacked Vinnytsia with Kalibr missiles in July 2022. Twenty-nine civilians were killed as a result of that attack.

quote:

One of the victims of the attack was Liza Dmytrieva, a 4-year-old Ukrainian girl who was born with Down syndrome. On the day of the attack, while walking from a speech therapy session with her mother, Liza Dmytrieva was killed in a missile strike in Vinnytsia. Images of her bloodied stroller lying on its side next to her body circulated widely on the Internet. After the missile strike, Liza's mother was hospitalized with injuries and temporarily lost her memory. Liza was buried on 17 July 2022 in the Spaso-Preobrazhensky Cathedral in Vinnytsia. Her mother could not attend the funeral due to her condition.




Justice Prevails. This is the only negotiation that works with Russians.

This post was edited on 11/13/24 at 2:08 pm
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 2:18 pm to
Also... internal Russian propaganda has been telling its citizens for years now that "we are fighting all of the West and NATO in Ukraine, and that is why we haven't yet prevailed."

I'm not sure if they're telling their citizens "The West and NATO invaded Kursk...." but I'm not sure they acknowledge that as even being reality inside Russia.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
138878 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

But I believe Putin is using NATO as an excuse
You've repeatedly made that absurd assertion.

As I've pointed out many times, adverse sentiment about NATO in Ukraine is held with virtual unanimity throughout the entire Russian Body Politic. It has been for the three decades of the Russian Federation's existence.

Forget Putin.
Cite one Russian military or political figure asserting, as you insist, that NATO in Ukraine or Georgia was/is a nothingburger.
Posted by SirWinston
Say NO to War
Member since Jul 2014
104464 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 2:56 pm to
It's time!

Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45556 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

First by the Czars, then the Soviets, and now Putin. They have been trained to grumble at home but do nothing to change their situation.


Its really weird that you say that, since two of the three examples you gave were overthrown or toppled, and the last one is in danger of a similar fate


It took Nicholas II getting millions of Russians killed in WW1, the Russian economy completely collapsing, and a person named Lenin for them to overthrow the Czar. The Russian people tolerated the other 300 years of oppression from the Romanov family without rising. The USSR collapsed because of the inefficiencies of communism lead to an economic collapse. The other 60 or so years of communism was fine for the Russians.

quote:

Most countries have similar timelines over their histories in terms of being controlled. Britain still has an (albeit now toothless) version of their monarchy I think Russians definitely do have their own traits and quirks, but this just seems like a dumb, emotional point from you



Again you throw out emotions to discredit my argument but you are not talking to me in person. How can you tell if I am emotional or not?

quote:

because you don't like Russia.


On the contrary, St Petersburg is one of my favorite cities in Europe. Have you ever been? It is a beautiful city. I actually like the Russian people, but their need for a strong ruler is a major flaw in their collective character. It might seem like I do not like Russians but that is because I am dumbfounded by them. How can the citizens of nation with the wealth of Russia be ok with being so poor and letting the oligarchs steal everything from the country? At least Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Georgia (pre-2008) tried to take back some power and wealth from the oligarchs. The Russians did not. When presented with Yeltsin's corruption in the 1990s instead of throwing Yeltsin and his people out of power and into the jail they elected his handpicked successor.
Posted by Lee B
Member since Dec 2018
3947 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

The Russians created Finland, they gave them independence from the Swedes.


Yep. The Fins don't want to be controlled or absorbed by Russia, though... they've fought off an invasion in the Winter War and haven't trusted them, since.
Posted by doubleb
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2006
42619 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

. Cite one Russian military or political figure asserting, as you insist, that NATO in Ukraine or Georgia was/is a nothingburger.


Your words not mine.

Obviously NATO is not a nothing burger, but NATO isn’t a significant military threat.

Russia fears border nations turning to the West for political and economic reasons. Not military reasons. They do not want Georgia, Ukraine or any of their former satellite nations in a strong, democratic European alliance.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 11/13/24 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

USSR collapsed because of the inefficiencies of communism lead to an economic collapse.


Russian nationalism killed it.

The Soviets could have cracked down on the protests like they did in 56, but the desire was gone. The leadership didn’t see the point.
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