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Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 11/13/24 at 3:58 pm to doubleb
Posted on 11/13/24 at 3:58 pm to doubleb
quote:
Obviously NATO is not a nothing burger, but NATO isn’t a significant military threat.
Russia fears border nations turning to the West for political and economic reasons. Not military reasons. They do not want Georgia, Ukraine or any of their former satellite nations in a strong, democratic European alliance.
Yep. That is the most immediate thing...
the paranoia about being weakened in the near future and invaded is not about NATO or anyone is particular, just general paranoia and "The West (as in "everything West of Russia")" is the catchall... it is in their thinking and psyche, but more immediately...
Financial Times: Putin's deepest fear is the freedom of Russia's neighbors
To be sure, Moscow’s demands are clear. It wants to end Nato’s eastern enlargement, above all to Ukraine. It wants to ban offensive weapons near Russia’s borders — again, especially in Ukraine. And it wants Nato to withdraw all military forces and infrastructure it deployed to the 14 new members that have joined since 1999.
The problem with these demands is that Moscow knows they are non-starters for Nato. The possibility of adding new members is foreseen in Nato’s founding treaty and is a practice that dates to 1952. And the decision on how to provide security for all its members is Nato’s, not Russia’s.
At the same time, attacking Ukraine is hardly the best way to achieve Moscow’s demands. It would strengthen Ukrainian public support to align with the west, as when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. It would lead to more material support for Ukraine to defend itself. It would increase the US and Nato military presence on Russia’s borders.
For all Russia’s focus on Nato and its past actions, the answer to what Putin wants doesn’t lie in Brussels or Washington. It lies in Moscow. While Putin surely would have preferred it if Nato had not expanded, his real issue is with the collapse in 1991 of the Soviet Union, which he once described as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. This “catastrophe” left Russia surrounded by independent countries, each able to chart its own future.
...
Putin worries that if any of these states becomes a successful and prosperous democracy, let alone fully integrates with the west, the Russian people will demand the same. To forestall that, Putin has tried to ensure the neighbouring states are run by strongmen dependent on Russia to stay in power.
Also, instantly increasing the number of "Russians" and number of troops at his disposal is a plus, too, right?
Three birds with one stone...
1
Posted on 11/13/24 at 4:07 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
USSR collapsed because of the inefficiencies of communism lead to an economic collapse.
Russian nationalism killed it.
Are you saying that there was no economic collapse in the USSR in the late 80s and early 90s?
quote:
The Soviets could have cracked down on the protests like they did in 56,
Well our resident FSB agent would probably know this kind of stuff so I'll believe on this one point.
quote:
The leadership didn’t see the point.
Because they were all too busy plotting how they would become wealthy when the USSR was dissolved.
Posted on 11/13/24 at 4:12 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
quote:
USSR collapsed because of the inefficiencies of communism lead to an economic collapse.
Russian nationalism killed it.
The Soviets could have cracked down on the protests like they did in 56, but the desire was gone. The leadership didn’t see the point.
Uh, no...Gorbachev would not allow the military suppression of rebellions in the satellite countries ... he believed if their system was the right one people could be shown and convinced to stay in it...
If you're referring to Hungary's Revolution in 1956... what sparked that was Khrushchev giving a public speech about Stalinism being over, and that debate and criticism was allowed, not punishable. And that led to outright fighting for independence in Hungary... and that was crushed by Soviet invasion and military suppression of the revolution, but Stalinism was not re-imposed... and over time that led to the events of the collapse. Then in the Polish Crisis over the Solidarity movement, the Soviets didn't invade to stop it like they had in Hungary in 56 and Prague in 68.
The Soviet Union was really doomed when Stalin died. The leaders in his wake were not truly the monsters he was... and eventually, there were few left under a certain age who truly believed in forcing that form of government on people... and that's why it collapsed.
This post was edited on 11/13/24 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 11/13/24 at 4:25 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Are you saying that there was no economic collapse in the USSR in the late 80s and early 90s?
Cuba is an economic disaster. Venezuela is too. But they both persist.
Poverty didn’t kill the Soviet Union, the structural reforms weakened the state, and gave the nationalist under Yelstin an opening to seize power.
Edit
The Russians have entered Kupyansk
This post was edited on 11/13/24 at 5:35 pm
Posted on 11/13/24 at 5:53 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
Ukraine could develop a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if Donald Trump withdraws US military assistance, according to a briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The country would quickly be able to build a basic device from plutonium with a similar technology to the “Fat Man” bomb dropped on Nagasaki in 1945, the report states. “Creating a simple atomic bomb, as the United States did within the framework of the Manhattan Project, would not be a difficult task 80 years later,” the document reads.
With no time to build and run the large facilities required to enrich uranium, wartime Ukraine would have to rely instead on using plutonium extracted from spent fuel rods taken from Ukraine’s nuclear reactors.
Ukraine still controls nine operational reactors and has significant nuclear expertise despite having given up the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal in 1996. The report says: “The weight of reactor plutonium available to Ukraine can be estimated at seven tons … A significant nuclear weapons arsenal would require much less material … the amount of material is sufficient for hundreds of warheads with a tactical yield of several kilotons.” Such a bomb would have about one tenth the power of Fat Man, the document’s authors conclude.
LINK
Posted on 11/13/24 at 8:12 pm to Jim Rockford
ISW Update Nov 13
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin is attempting to dictate the terms of any potential "peace" negotiations with Ukraine in advance of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia's objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation. The Kremlin does not appear any more willing to make concessions to the incoming Trump administration than it was to the current administration.
Lavrov's pre-emptive rejection of the potential suggestion to freeze the current frontline further indicates that Russia is not interested in softening its approach or demands in negotiations and maintains its objective of total Ukrainian capitulation, which Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly outlined in June 2024.
Ukrainian security services reportedly assassinated a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) official in occupied Crimea on November 13.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian oil executives reportedly rejected a proposal to merge Russia's three largest oil companies. Contradictory reporting on the proposed Russian oil merger highlights a possible factional struggle between close affiliates of Putin and Russian energy executives.
South Korean and US intelligence separately confirmed that North Korean troops have deployed into combat alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast.
Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Chasiv Yar.
Russian forces continue to heavily rely on refurbished tanks and armored vehicles pulled from storage to replace vehicle losses during ongoing combat operations, but likely will not be able to sustain these losses in the long term.
Posted on 11/13/24 at 9:01 pm to StormyMcMan
Seems like ISW has been saying this for at least a year about various aspects of Russian capabilities
I wonder how they define "long term" and if they believe Ukraine can effectively resist till then...
quote:
but likely will not be able to sustain these losses in the long term.
I wonder how they define "long term" and if they believe Ukraine can effectively resist till then...
Posted on 11/13/24 at 9:11 pm to TigersnJeeps
quote:
I wonder how they define "long term" and if they believe Ukraine can effectively resist till then
Looks like at least 2-3 years in this case
quote:
Russian forces continue to heavily rely on refurbished tanks and armored vehicles pulled from storage to replace vehicle losses during ongoing combat operations, but likely will not be able to sustain these losses in the long term. Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies expert Viktor Kevlyuk stated on November 13 that Russian forces continue to manufacture and refurbish about 150 to 160 new tanks per month — roughly 1,920 tanks per year — about equal to the current replacement rate of Russian vehicle losses.[79] Dutch open-source project Oryx reported that Russian forces have lost about 3,558 tanks since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.[80] Kevlyuk stated that about 30 percent of all Russian tanks produced per year (or about 567 of a total 1,344 tanks produced per year) are newly-manufactured tanks, and that Russian forces pull the remaining 70 percent from storage, noting that recent estimates from UK intelligence suggest that Russia will deplete its stores of tanks and armored fighting vehicles by Fall 2025 if Russia continues to pull these vehicles from storage at this rate.[81] The British International Institute for Stategic Studies (IISS) assessed in February 2024 that Russian forces will likely be able to sustain about 3,000 annual vehicle losses for at least the next two or three years by reactivating vehicles from storage.[82] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets previously assessed that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) can produce about 250–300 new tanks and repair an additional 250–300 tanks per year.
Posted on 11/13/24 at 9:39 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Cuba is an economic disaster. Venezuela is too. But they both persist.
Venezuela isn't Communist... just screwy.
Cuba... well, they got into some scrap with China recently on trade issues... China is angry because Cuba stubbornly insists on staying Communist... which is... c'mon, we can all laugh long and hard at that one, right?
Fundacion Andres Bello: China Cancels Trade Agreements with Cuba Due to Lack of Market Reforms and Unpaid Debts
quote:
Poverty didn’t kill the Soviet Union, the structural reforms weakened the state
The structural reforms had to happen because increasing poverty and cratering productivity, in a feedback loop, were weakening the state...
the state had been "weakened" by Kruschev compared to Stalinism, kind of following on that same path with time under Brezhniv, and by the time we get to the 80s and those old dudes Andropov and Chernenko, who were lucky to live for 2 years by the time they got put in charge, things didn't seem to be going well...
Gorbachev was a popular and optimistic "young (early 50s)" outsider from an agricultural background. He was a Hail Mary by a dying regime... literally as far as the party elite, and figuratively as far their system.
Something that came to me earlier...
Kruschev was born in Kursk and spent a lot of his life and career in Ukraine, kind of being in charge of it during Stalin's time, trying to soften things from Moscow... and thought and spoke highly of the country and its people in his memoirs, I believe.
Brezhnev was born in Ukraine, but considered himself Russian.
Chernenko was Ukrainian but his family had been sent to Siberia, where he was born.
Gorbachev's mother was Ukrainian.
That's half of the 8 Soviet leaders (if we count that guy who was in charge for maybe a year between Stalin and Kruschev whose name I can't even remember) with a Ukrainian connection.
This post was edited on 11/13/24 at 9:45 pm
Posted on 11/13/24 at 9:46 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
Ukraine could develop a rudimentary nuclear bomb within months if Donald Trump withdraws US military assistance, according to a briefing paper prepared for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
I'm not big on proliferation...
Posted on 11/13/24 at 9:55 pm to Lee B
quote:
That's half of the 8 Soviet leaders (if we count that guy who was in charge for maybe a year between Stalin and Kruschev whose name I can't even remember) with a Ukrainian connection.
Lenin prohibited the creation of a Russian Communist Party, he had just led a minority revolution against the Russians, and he didn't want to make it easy for them to take back power. And that was an intelligent decision. He was certainly tactically right.
In the absence of a Russian Communist Party, the Ukrainian Communist Party became the heavyweight within the USSR, and that's why so many of the Soviet leaders came out of it.
Posted on 11/13/24 at 10:05 pm to Lima Whiskey
That makes some sense... but a lot of these people were far from Ukraine and it doesn't seem as though their parents were anybody important in anything.
I just took it as an example of how interwoven Ukrainians and Russians really are...
I just took it as an example of how interwoven Ukrainians and Russians really are...
Posted on 11/13/24 at 10:08 pm to Lee B
quote:
That makes some sense... but a lot of these people were far from Ukraine and it doesn't seem as though their parents were anybody important in anything.
The Soviets shattered the social order. The aristocrats were dead, or in exile. In that chaos, unusual people came to the top.
quote:
I just took it as an example of how interwoven Ukrainians and Russians really are...
It depends on where they're from. Most people have family in Russia, but that isn't true if you're from the western regions. The areas that were ruled by the Poles are culturally different, and look westward.
To your point though, Syrskyi is Russian, his parents live in the Moscow oblast.
This post was edited on 11/13/24 at 10:13 pm
Posted on 11/13/24 at 10:18 pm to Lee B
quote:
I'm not big on proliferation
If Trump pulls the rug out,we have no leverage to stop them. They would have absolutely no disencentive to go ahead with it.
Posted on 11/13/24 at 10:23 pm to Jim Rockford
and God help us all...
Posted on 11/13/24 at 10:26 pm to Lee B
quote:
though, if you've read Vonnegut's great "Mother Night," there's a character in that vein
I really think that book is one of the best books for where we currently are. With media forces like Tucker Carlson, I often wondered if they are just truly trolls on a lark, just good at playing a character and want to let their talent run, or are they true believers in what they say. But then I think to mother night and wonder is it the motivation or the action that ultimately matters to determine what a person is.
Posted on 11/13/24 at 10:29 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
I really think that book is one of the best books for where we currently are. With media forces like Tucker Carlson, I often wondered if they are just truly trolls on a lark, just good at playing a character and want to let their talent run, or are they true believers in what they say. But then I think to mother night and wonder is it the motivation or the action that ultimately matters to determine what a person is.
"We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be."
Posted on 11/13/24 at 11:16 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
I often wondered if they are just truly trolls on a lark, just good at playing a character and want to let their talent run
InfoWars/Prison Planet was making bank on website hits unlike other websites like Breitbart. The other media outlets saw and everyone began to change their business model to foster more outrage and revenue.
Posted on 11/13/24 at 11:31 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
With media forces like Tucker Carlson, I often wondered if they are just truly trolls on a lark, just good at playing a character and want to let their talent run, or are they true believers in what they say
TIFWIW, I've read that he and Hannity are both very nice people IRL. When the camera goes on, they jump into character.
Posted on 11/14/24 at 12:29 am to Jim Rockford
quote:
I'm not big on proliferation
quote:
If Trump pulls the rug out,we have no leverage to stop them. They would have absolutely no disencentive to go ahead with it.
Correct. If - no, when - the Ukrainians develop nuclear weapons, the primary goal will not be to use them against Putin, but to force the US to take whatever action needed to stop the Russians.
However, by the time the Ukrainians develop a nuclear weapon, they will have developed their own surface to surface missiles which will give them the ability to take out the Russian air bases and push them away from the legal border.
If Trump is smart, he will facilitate these missiles being developed to prevent getting caught between the use of nuclear weapons against Russia and active involvement of US forces in this conflict.
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