re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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No wonder you love Putin. You're a nutter.

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He's just punching a clock for the FSB. Nothing personal.

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Appalachia

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No wonder you love Putin. You're a nutter.

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I love my people, and they will always come first for me.

A 20-story-high fountain of poo? I bet Tucker is on a plane right now to see Moscow's latest tourist attraction. It sounds even more exciting than coin-operated grocery carts.

What is the issue with North Korean soldiers helping Russia?

We are giving 100s of billions in weapons and are shocked, shocked I tell you that Russian allies are helping them?

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So you are in NC, working full time to help the people there? Thanks for your service.



You’re being nasty.

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LMAO.

ISW Update Oct 28th

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Key Takeaways:

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that South Korean intelligence officials shared evidence with NATO officials on October 28 that North Korean units are operating in Kursk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces conducted another series of drone strikes against Russian distilleries on the night of October 27 to 28, reportedly to reduce Russian aviation capabilities.

Russian President Vladimir Putin briefly acknowledged Russia's labor shortages on October 28, but highlighted Russia's low unemployment rates in an attempt to reframe this challenge in a beneficial light and claim that the Russian economy is able to sustain a long war in Ukraine.

The Moldovan Constitutional Court stated it that it will review the results of the October 20 European Union (EU) referendum on October 31, and the third runner up in the first round of the presidential election announced that he would not endorse a candidate in the runoff.

Georgian civil society, opposition, and international election observers continue to reject the results of the 2024 Georgian parliament elections amid a large-scale demonstration in Tbilisi on October 28.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Kupyansk, southeast of Pokrovsk, and southwest of Donetsk City.

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So by extension you wouldn't have a problem with South Korea deploying 100,000 troops to help Ukraine?

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South Korea is not the US, so if thats what they feel like is in their best interests then sure.

I would take issue with the premise that doing so would be beneficial to them at all, though.

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would take issue with the premise that doing so would be beneficial to them at all, though.

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If Russia "wins" in Ukraine (whatever that might look like) then it will be North Korea who made the difference. Russia would not have the artillery to maintain their offensive tempo without NK shells (at least 3 million of them by now). And now NK is providing troops.

So Russia now "owes" North Korea a debt that could be repaid with a quid pro quo. So it makes a future conflict between NK and SK more dangerous, because it brings Russia in.

So I can see how SK might feel obligated to push back and counter the NK troops.

Another way to put it is: If Russia loses in Ukraine despite NK help, it weakens NK considerably

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If Russia "wins" in Ukraine (whatever that might look like) then it will be North Korea who made the difference. Russia would not have the artillery to maintain their offensive tempo without NK shells (at least 3 million of them by now). And now NK is providing troops.

So Russia now "owes" North Korea a debt that could be repaid with a quid pro quo. So it makes a future conflict between NK and SK more dangerous, because it brings Russia in.

So I can see how SK might feel obligated to push back and counter the NK troops.

Another way to put it is: If Russia loses in Ukraine despite NK help, it weakens NK considerably

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Who starts this future NK/SK conflict?

NK has set the stakes at total annihilation based on their nuclear policy. They can't go any further than that. It also means that they don't have motivation to start a conflict because they've already set the parameters of what that leads to, and for them it means they are completely wiped out regardless of any damage they do to SK.

Could a future leader come in and change that? Possibly. But for now any open conflict with NK is going to be "started" by SK. I don't think SK is particularly motivated to start an open conflict with NK.

TLDR: I think a conflict between NK and SK is highly unlikely.

However, I think a weaker Russia (so one that 'loses' in Ukraine) is more likely to actually follow through and help NK in the event of a conflict. A loss would make the relationship between NK and Russia that much more important for Russia.

If we compare this to a boxing match IMO we want Russia standing on its own two feet, but staggered and wobbly. If they get help it will be from NK and China.... Those 3 being friendly with each other is the current state of affairs and isn't a huge deal.... but we definitely don't want them completely interdependent on each other.