re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Do you think its worth it to Russia to systematically target civilians with a million+ dollar missile only to kill 10-15 at a time? Does that make sense to you?

Just got off the phone with an international grain trader.

Russian money fleeing like crazy. Banks in Dubai are welcoming it, they don't care where it comes from.

The international grain business is in the shitter due no one has any money to pay for it, even Russia and China are broke

quote:

---

So the missiles that blow up schools, apartments, stores and hospitals are accidents? What is your theory?

---

And around and around we go. Good talk. You're not listening.

quote:

---

stormtroopers (who famously can't hit shite)

---

One of the things that has been shown most clearly in this war (and in Gaza) is that most of the world simply does not care about civilian deaths.

The only time that civilian deaths actually matter is if the US causes them. That's when the liberals of the world get all up in arms.

quote:

---

One of the things that has been shown most clearly in this war (and in Gaza) is that most of the world simply does not care about civilian deaths.

---

I think with Gaza you've got a bit of unmasking of people who are very open to the idea of revenge, an eye for an eye, etc.

quote:

---

For a week of war against Ukraine, the Russian Federation spends more money than 80% of its regions in a year, — The Moscow Times.

According to the publication, in 2025, Russia plans to spend $95.4 billion on military needs. This means that the daily costs of the war will amount to almost $275 million.

At the same time, only 18 out of 83 Russian regions have budgets that exceed the weekly expenses of the Russian Federation

---

Germany's war economy of WWI is why it lost the war. The Kaiser's grip on the public was shattered. Russian farmers have already complained that they might breakeven last year. Diesel might have been short for them this year. The export market is not profitable at all gobally per my convo this morning.

As for Ukraine it is one of the lowest cost producers of grain in the world. Russia is a very high cost producer with marginal farmland being used for crops and a weak transportation system based long haul rail.

Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.

quote:

---

I'll say what many might think but hesitate to voice: Ukraine is currently losing the war, and the trend is negative unless drastic measures are taken.

Debates over what constitutes loss or victory can be had, and yes, Ukraine’s survival so far is a big win. But even if Russia halts advances and goes on the defensive, we lack the resources to reclaim territories to the 2022 borders, let alone the 1991 borders. This is due to many factors: delayed mobilization, insufficient aid, weak sanctions enforcement, a lack of political will in the West, poor military decisions, delayed aid due to de-escalation concerns, and the sheer reality of fighting a country with four times our population, with superior numbers in almost all domains and one of the largest military industries, supported by regimes like North Korea, which contribute more than some European countries with far larger GDPs.

Manpower shortages are another issue, but that's a separate discussion. Ukrainian leadership bears a good part of the responsibility for these problems. Still, if the West can’t supply the 14 brigades Zelensky requested, why discuss drafting hundreds of thousands more? We need to completely re-arm way more existing brigades. Who’s going to pay for them? Let’s be honest - there’s little enthusiasm in the U.S. or Europe to fund this.

If Russia retains its occupied territories, it will undermine one of Europe’s core security principles: that borders cannot be redrawn by invading force. In 2014, Russia violated this order, leading to the 2022 invasion. This time, it’s not just Ukraine that will have failed - it’s Ukraine, the U.S., and Western Europe’s failure to defeat Russia.

Some might cite Finland's Winter War, as an example of what Ukraine should have done, but that war lasted three months and ended with Finland ceding territory, paying reparations in the form of machinery, and renting a port to the Soviets. Ukraine's demographics today are also very different: the 18-25 age group is among the smallest, a reality across modern Europe.

Unless Ukraine and the West create a serious plan to radically increase aid to support mobilization - where Ukraine commits to mobilizing more people on the condition that they are properly armed and trained, and the West provides robust air defense to intercept missiles as decisively as the U.S. does for Israel - Ukraine will lose the war of attrition. This will force unfavorable peace, and mass migration from Ukraine to other countries, setting a dangerous precedent, and making it look like the West lost to Russia in the eyes of the world, especially among the enemies of the West

---

They need to make peace as quickly as possible, and do whatever it takes to achieve that. That minimizes their territorial losses. A Harris victory is the worst thing that could happen to them at this point, because it means the war continues, and the Russians would seek a complete military victory, with Russian soldiers taking Kiev.

quote:

---

"Despite Russia’s claims that its economy is booming, economic data coming out of Russia indicates that the economy is not only overheating, but may be imploding."

---

I've been hearing that since the summer of 2022 from my friend the former finance director at Gazprom.

This morning an international grain trader friend, based in Toronto, told me about being in Dubai last year and Russians bringing satchels of dollars, rubles and euros to open up accounts while he was in the bank on company business.