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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:24 pm to cypher
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:24 pm to cypher
quote:
Double taps, which are not part of a barrage, are evidence that:
1.The original target was not accidental or random since the same locations are hit twice within an hour.
2. The weapons being used for the double taps are not inaccurate since they hit the same location.
And I just provided evidence, via your numbers that they are:
not happening all that often
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:34 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
What we have held back? The JASSM?
We have even stripped items from 30+ year old Bradleys and M1A1's. We allowed older versions of Patriots batteries to be sent.
How are those T-14's doing on the battlefield?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:11 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
not happening all that often
"But we only intentionally kill/murder a few dozen first responders a year".
Maybe that will be their defense at The Hague.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 2:31 pm to cypher
Saudi Arabia has lost market share in several markets so Riyadh has indicated that oil prices could drop to $50 (£38.30) a barrel at a time when Russia is reliant on oil sales to keep its economy afloat.
Russia needs $50 per barrel to buy anything, along with payola to its troubled areas like Chechnya to keep local rulers reigned in. General Low Price for Oil is the most feared opponent of Russia. India and China will then start buying for qualities which make their refineries more efficient, not the under priced oil from Russia.
Tight shale drilling here will slow to a crawl, but existing producers can still make a profit at that price. After the 2014 price collapse, tight shale producers got breakeven price down to $34 per barrel on average.
Russia needs $50 per barrel to buy anything, along with payola to its troubled areas like Chechnya to keep local rulers reigned in. General Low Price for Oil is the most feared opponent of Russia. India and China will then start buying for qualities which make their refineries more efficient, not the under priced oil from Russia.
Tight shale drilling here will slow to a crawl, but existing producers can still make a profit at that price. After the 2014 price collapse, tight shale producers got breakeven price down to $34 per barrel on average.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 2:32 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:08 pm to cypher
quote:
"But we only intentionally kill/murder a few dozen first responders a year".
You're the ones claiming its a strategy they use to psychologically impact the population.
Even one time is too many times. BUT if its a psy-op tactic, you'd think it would occur more often.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:22 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
Even one time is too many times. BUT if its a psy-op tactic, you'd think it would occur more often.
They would, but they do not have enough good missiles.
But let me ask you, why do you think they do this if it’s not to terrorize the civilian population?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 3:31 pm to doubleb
quote:
They would, but they do not have enough good missiles.
So they don't have enough missiles, but are using what they do have to kill maybe 10 or 15 civilians?
Do y'all listen to yourselves?
quote:
But let me ask you, why do you think they do this if it’s not to terrorize the civilian population?
I think it probably is a case by case thing. There's more evidence for that than there is of a top-down, thought out plan to terrorize the populace.
Who is more important to convince not to keep going in this conflict: Some Ukrainian civilians, or the west? If you attack civilians intentionally and repeatedly in a systemic fashion, you're generating bad headlines for yourself.
So in your world they don't have enough missiles, but are going to use the ones they do have to not hit anything strategically important to the war AND while they are doing it generate more support for aid to Ukraine? Does that make any sense in a cost-benefit analysis?
I don't think something that happened 7 times a year over the span of 8 years in Syria and apparently less than a handful of times so far in Ukraine really qualifies as a psychological warfare directive. That's just not very logical. It sounds like they might have a few fricked up individuals in charge of shooting artillery or missiles.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 4:12 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
So they don't have enough missiles, but are using what they do have to kill maybe 10 or 15 civilians?
They don’t have enough missiles. That’s why Iran and N Korea is helping them.
Once in a while instead of targeting a military target they go after civilians. That is obvious.
Again I ask you if not to terrorize civilians, why are they firing missiles at civilian targets?
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 4:12 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
I don't think something that happened 7 times a year over the span of 8 years in Syria and apparently less than a handful of times so far in Ukraine really qualifies as a psychological warfare directive.
How about daily?
‘Human safari’ – Kherson civilians hunted down by Russian drones
by Zarina Zabrisky October 2, 2024 8:07 PM
The Kyiv Independent
Don't take the Ukrainians word for it, the russians are bragging about it.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 10/14/24 at 4:22 pm to cypher
Russia is short on missiles, but they have a lot of drones.
It’s by design. Russia wants to terrorize civilians to weaken Ukrainian resolve.
It’s by design. Russia wants to terrorize civilians to weaken Ukrainian resolve.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 5:54 pm to doubleb
Posted on 10/14/24 at 6:33 pm to Bunk Moreland
Russia’s milbloggers celebrate executions of Ukrainian POWs in Kursk region
by Oleg Sukhov October 14, 2024 8:55 PM
Russian pro-war milbloggers have reacted to yet more reports of Ukrainian POWs being executed by Moscow’s forces by seeking to justify the killings, while some have even called for more.
In the latest case of what appears to be an increasingly common occurrence, Russian troops reportedly shot dead nine Ukrainian drone operators who surrendered near the village of Zeleny Shlyakh in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on Oct. 10.
Several prominent milbloggers did not deny the reports but instead argued that the killing of POWs was justified. Several even reveled in the alleged murders.
The Kyiv Independent
by Oleg Sukhov October 14, 2024 8:55 PM
Russian pro-war milbloggers have reacted to yet more reports of Ukrainian POWs being executed by Moscow’s forces by seeking to justify the killings, while some have even called for more.
In the latest case of what appears to be an increasingly common occurrence, Russian troops reportedly shot dead nine Ukrainian drone operators who surrendered near the village of Zeleny Shlyakh in Russia’s Kursk Oblast on Oct. 10.
Several prominent milbloggers did not deny the reports but instead argued that the killing of POWs was justified. Several even reveled in the alleged murders.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 10/14/24 at 6:33 pm to Bunk Moreland
If he hasn't already, Bunk may as well join Communist Party USA due he loves them very far lefties
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:56 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
They aren't fighting with kid gloves by any means, but they haven't gone completely scorched earth either because there is a sizable population in Russia who have friends and relatives in Ukraine, and because it doesn't (usually) make sense to completely level something you want to take over and use for yourself.
I think there are two other factors at play in this too.
The first is Western red lines and some of their (Russian) allies. For the purposes of this I would say it's Nukes. If Russia launched a nuke I do think it would draw direct intervention for several European countries (not necessarily NATO) and cause China to balk at their support. The only other weapon that would probably by in that category is bio warfare or chemical weapons (not pepper spray)
The other half is the actual Russian population. If they did a full mobilization to "take the gloves off" I would wager public support would drop pretty quick. As it stands they are ha ing to increase payments somewhat regularly to continue to get "volunteers"
Otherwise I agree with you that Russia does have other options, but they are having to balance domestic and international tolerance of said actions and its much more than just the 3 high level ones we hit on here
Posted on 10/14/24 at 7:56 pm to StormyMcMan
Isw update oct 14th
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in the People's Republic of China (PRC) for an official visit on October 14, highlighting continued Russia-PRC defense cooperation against the backdrop of bilateral naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean.
Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since October 5, part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine's grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces recaptured positions in Kursk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces recently regained positions in central Toretsk.
Russian forces recently conducted a reduced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Kurakhove direction and recently made confirmed advances northeast of Vuhledar.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on October 11 that sources within the Russian Presidential Administration stated that the Kremlin's "Time of Heroes" program, which places veterans of the war in Ukraine into government positions after returning to Russia, is meant to increase the popularity of contract military service and boost recruitment.
Russian occupation officials continue to pathologize Ukrainian identity in an effort to indoctrinate children in occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 5:31 am to doubleb
quote:Interesting.
Russia wants to terrorize civilians to weaken Ukrainian resolve.
In accordance with a desire to break resolve, they are employing a tactic that did not work on the Brits, did not work on the USSR during Barbarossa, did not work on the Germans, did not work on the North Vietnamese, has not worked on Israel, and brings with it the wrath of all parties not-Russian? If that is the bent, they really are a stupid lot.
Hopefully they don't advance the strategy though, because the one-time bombing civilians terrorized a people into capitulation was Hiroshima/Nagasaki.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 6:46 am to NC_Tigah
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 October 2024
On 5 October 24, Russia shot down their own S-70 Okhotnik 'Hunter' uncrewed combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) as it flew west over the front lines of the Ukraine conflict. It is likely that Russia lost control of the UCAV and took the decision to destroy the aircraft to avoid it falling into adversary hands.
A Sukhoi enterprise, the S-70 has been in development for at least a decade, having been observed testing at Russia's Akhtubinsk airbase. A key attribute of the S-70 is its reduced radar cross section which is intended to make it a 'stealth' deep-strike asset, potentially capable of penetrating adversary radar and air-defence coverage. The system is purported to be able to operate jointly with the Su-57 FELON fighter.
It is likely Russia waited to the last moment before choosing to engage the UCAV having exhausted attempts to bring it back under control. This demonstrates yet another expensive and embarrassing failure of Russian weapons development and will almost certainly delay the S-70 programme.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 October 2024
On 5 October 24, Russia shot down their own S-70 Okhotnik 'Hunter' uncrewed combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) as it flew west over the front lines of the Ukraine conflict. It is likely that Russia lost control of the UCAV and took the decision to destroy the aircraft to avoid it falling into adversary hands.
A Sukhoi enterprise, the S-70 has been in development for at least a decade, having been observed testing at Russia's Akhtubinsk airbase. A key attribute of the S-70 is its reduced radar cross section which is intended to make it a 'stealth' deep-strike asset, potentially capable of penetrating adversary radar and air-defence coverage. The system is purported to be able to operate jointly with the Su-57 FELON fighter.
It is likely Russia waited to the last moment before choosing to engage the UCAV having exhausted attempts to bring it back under control. This demonstrates yet another expensive and embarrassing failure of Russian weapons development and will almost certainly delay the S-70 programme.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 6:49 am to cypher
We were talking about double taps.
Do you have any sources other than a Ukraine propaganda outfit?
Do you have any sources other than a Ukraine propaganda outfit?
Posted on 10/15/24 at 6:55 am to cypher
ISW explains why Russia is attacking Ukrainian ports
15.10.2024 11:51
The Russians are attacking Ukrainian ports in order to undermine international support for Ukraine and push it to negotiate.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.
As noted, Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since October 5.
“That is part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine's grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations,” the report says.
The Odesa region officials reported that Russian forces struck the port of Odesa with a ballistic missile during the day on October 14, hitting the civilian vessels NS Moon flying the Belize flag and the Optima dry cargo vessel flying the Palau flag, as well as port infrastructure and a grain warehouse, the analysts recalled.
Ukrinform
15.10.2024 11:51
The Russians are attacking Ukrainian ports in order to undermine international support for Ukraine and push it to negotiate.
This is stated in a report by the Institute for Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.
As noted, Russian forces struck civilian vessels docked at Ukrainian ports for the fourth time since October 5.
“That is part of an apparent Russian strike campaign targeting port areas to undermine Ukraine's grain corridor, spoil international support for Ukraine, and push Ukraine into premature negotiations,” the report says.
The Odesa region officials reported that Russian forces struck the port of Odesa with a ballistic missile during the day on October 14, hitting the civilian vessels NS Moon flying the Belize flag and the Optima dry cargo vessel flying the Palau flag, as well as port infrastructure and a grain warehouse, the analysts recalled.
Ukrinform
Posted on 10/15/24 at 7:00 am to VolSquatch
quote:
We were talking about double taps.
Do you have any sources other than a Ukraine propaganda outfit?
One example...
Ukraine war: Russian double-tap strikes hit civilians then rescuers too
13 April 2024
Vitaly Shevchenko
Russia Editor, BBC Monitoring
BBC
Feel free to link your TASS version of these strikes.
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