re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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From pictures on the web, Glushkovo Bridge wasnt just hit and hole put in it like the bridge hit earlier this week, but the spans are now in the Seym river

i think the end goal for Ukraine is to consolodate all area south of the Seym in the Kursk Oblast from uthe west edge at the Ukrainian border to where the river turns north near Korenevo.

Russia loses LOC with both Bridges in that area out. Now Ukraine is defending a river crossing

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Yep. It's another 700 sq. km. that is simply going to fall into Ukrainian hands in the next few days.

Ukraine is still fighting for Korenevo -- I wrote yesterday that I thought they had captured it, and that was premature. I'm reading that they are in the city, have it about 2/3 surrounded, and have fire control on the road out. Finishing that particular job will open up a lot more opportunities, but it's also important to control the city, because it's the only other access to the Gluskovko area.

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I’m old enough to remember the deal we cut to end the Vietnam War. I’m fairly confident in saying that Ukraine like Vietnam would eventually be run over in short order. Russia would break this deal as soon as they retooled and they knew the West had moved on.

Ukraine unlike S Vietnam has took on the enemy by themselves. Sure the West has provided massive aid, but it’s the Ukrainians are are fighting and dying. We are not.

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The Emperor of Vietnam thought of himself as a French European Royal with exotic features who inherited a big plantation he didn't like living on stocked with slaves. We couldn't save South Vietnam when it frankly didn't care if it was saved or not.

I'm really curious to see how many Russians and how much equipment gets trapped on the wrong side of the river.

There are still two bridges left for now, and the Russians can still build pontoons, but they will have to move quickly before the Ukrainians catch them.

If the majority of troops in Kursk were conscripts, would they even have pontoons?

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Eight days into Ukraine’s invasion of Russia’s Kursk Oblast, the Ukrainian invasion corps—some or all of five mechanized brigades, three air assault brigades and several independent battalions—has fully occupied its first major settlement: the town of Sudzha.

But the Ukrainians didn’t just capture Sudzha with its pre-invasion population of 5,100—they also captured many of the Russian troops who were defending the town.

Ukrainian special forces took 102 Russian prisoners as Sudzha fell on Wednesday. “This is the largest one-time ‘catch’ since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine,” according to an Estonian analyst who posts under WarTranslated.

How those Russians from the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment became prisoners speaks volumes about the main dynamics of the ongoing battle in Kursk.

When Ukrainian forces rolled into Kursk on Aug. 6, the first Russian troops they encountered weren’t the Russian military’s best professional troops. Instead, they were lightly equipped, ambivalently led conscripts.

It was official Russian policy that conscripts—men between the ages of 18 and 30 who performed a year of mandatory military service—would strictly serve in second-line military roles. They wouldn’t see combat.

That changed in Kursk, as the Ukrainian advance overtook units and parts of units that were never supposed to be on the front line. There have been several instances of large groups of bewildered and terrified Russian conscripts, some of whom only fired a few rifle rounds during their cursory military training, surrendering to battle-hardened Ukrainian troops.

There were reportedly conscripts among those 102 Russians the Ukrainians captured on Wednesday.

The 488th Motor Rifle Regiment was in a difficult position as Ukrainian brigades closed in. Outgunned by the Ukrainian army’s 88th Mechanized Brigade, parts of the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment tried retreating on or before Wednesday. According to the Center for Defense Strategies, the fleeing Russians got turned back by Chechen “blocking units” working for the Kremlin.

In Soviet and Russian tradition, a blocking unit forces poorly motivated troops to fight—by threatening to arrest them ... or even shoot them. Compared to well-trained professional troops, undertrained conscripts are more likely to try fleeing after coming under fire. In that sense, conscripts and blocking units go hand-in-hand in the Russian military.

But forcing the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment to turn around and fight didn’t improve the regiment’s odds against the 88th Mechanized Brigade.

Some of the Russian regiment’s 2,000 or so troops were able to retreat from Sudzha on Wednesday when an adjacent Russian unit gained control over at least one route out of the town, CDS reported. But parts of the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment got left behind—and grabbed by the special forces at the vanguard of the Ukrainian advance.

Inasmuch as the 488th Motor Rifle Regiment’s heavy reliance on conscripts contributed to the unit’s defeat in Sudzha, similar embarrassments could be in the cards for the Russians as the Ukrainian invasion grinds into its second week.

That’s because the Kremlin appears to be sending more conscripts into Kursk in a desperate bid to slow the Ukrainian advance. “The Russian military command is transferring conscript soldiers from the spring draft of this year from Moscow, Leningrad, Kaliningrad, Sverdlovsk, Murmansk and Samara Oblasts to Kursk Oblast to reinforce their troops,” CDS explained.

Everyday Russians, who never expected their conscripted sons to do any actual fighting, are unhappy. According to CDS, “there is negative feedback from human rights activists and relatives who protest the use of conscripts in active combat operations.”

It’s unclear why the Kremlin is violating its policy against conscripts in combat and risking a political crisis. It’s possible Russian commanders are saving their professional troops for the ongoing Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.

But it’s also possible there aren’t any professional troops to spare—that sending good troops to Kursk would create new gaps in Russian lines in Ukraine. Redeploying professional soldiers might help contain the Ukrainian invasion, but at the risk of inviting separate Ukrainian breakthroughs elsewhere.

“We haven’t seen a substantial move [of Russian troops] just yet,” a source familiar with U.S. intelligence told CNN, “and we can’t tell whether that’s just because they’re only just getting started moving forces, or whether they just don’t have the forces to move.”

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LINK

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It was official Russian policy that conscripts—men between the ages of 18 and 30 who performed a year of mandatory military service—would strictly serve in second-line military roles. They wouldn’t see combat.

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With Russian territory that would all change. Yet, it is interesting that they don't serve in Russian claimed annexed territory in Ukraine.

Russia really doesn't need to do much to contain Ukraine beyond say 3000 square km of territory due logistics involved. However, it looks really bad for them to allow Ukraine to remain on actual Russian soil. The other problem is how bad does this affect Russia's rail logistics. I'm sure as hell hopeful that what has been claimed is correct, but who actually knows track work arounds.

"Amateurs talk Tactics - Professionals talk Logistics"

The two sites Intelschizo and Trent Trelinko are some of the best, most professional sources on logistics. There's too much to quote here, but if you really want to get an idea of the depth of Putin's problems in Kursk now, read both.

Ukraine's Kursk 2024 operation has effectively degraded Russian near front GLOC

MTO Brigades are Russia's logistical support to bring supplies from rail hubs to the front ground forces

We are now seeing anecdotal evidence of the logistical chaos on the Russian railways behind the front lines in Kherson & Zaporizhzhia Oblast. RuAF shell usage there is down ~36%. Russian logistical pipeline thread.

Edited to correct link.

This makes a lot of sense to me, especially starting at the 23:30 mark. What taking Kursk territory does and how it impacts Russian air defense, logistics, etc... Putin has a choice to make.

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You do realize that it was Putin and not Zelensky that killed that deal. Don't you?

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No. You've repeatedly jabbered that. It is false, and either stupid or horribly informed.

Johnson killed the deal, and was he clearly speaking for DC when he did.

"Johnson's position was that the collective West, which in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined.

Moreover, there was a chance to "press" Putin. And the West wanted to use it."

When Zelinskyy decided to go along with Johnson's desire to "press Putin," the Peace Talks were OBVIOUSLY done.

Putin simply issued the verbal acknowledgement.

By your measure, the doctor who pronounces a patient dead must then be the cause of death.