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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/26/24 at 7:31 pm to StormyMcMan
Posted on 7/26/24 at 7:31 pm to StormyMcMan
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Russian military has recently expanded the Russian Central Grouping of Forces' area of responsibility (AOR) in Donetsk Oblast, suggesting that the Russian military command has deprioritized the grouping's previous task to act solely as an operational maneuver force in the Avdiivka direction. The Russian military command may instead be tasking the Central Grouping of Forces with overseeing the bulk of Russia's main offensive efforts in Donetsk Oblast.
The expansion of the Central Grouping of Forces' AOR indicates that the Russian military command may assess that rapid tactical gains in the Avdiivka area are unlikely.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted an ATACMS strike against Saky Airbase in occupied Crimea on the night of July 25 to 26.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) arrested former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Dmitri Bulgakov on corruption charges on July 26 – the latest in a concerted Kremlin effort to remove senior Russian defense officials since April 2024.
The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
The Kremlin continues intensifying efforts to control Russians' internet activities and to create a culture of self-censorship within Russia.
Russian security forces reportedly detained several unknown actors threatening to blow up an apartment building in the Republic of Dagestan on July 25.
Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Svatove, Avdiivka, and Donetsk City.
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported on July 22 that the Russian intelligence services appear to have further integrated Russian forces' cyber and conventional capabilities.
1
Posted on 7/26/24 at 8:13 pm to Auburn1968
All a 3 ton glide bomb will mean is a lot of Su-34 fighter-bombers getting blown out of the sky. It’s basic physics. The bomb is heavier which means the aircraft delivering it must get closer and at a higher altitude to get the bomb all the way to its target. Meanwhile the Su-34 will be in range of Ukrainian air defenses and we’ve already seen they don’t get away very often when they put themselves over that line.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 8:20 pm to Lima Whiskey
So what you’re saying is if Russia and your hero Putin decided to frick around and find out with an actual shooting war with the U.S. and predictably got the shite kicked out of them because we own the sky and the sea that your hero would then use nukes because that’s all he has left? Man how you can actually support someone like that and their actions is absolutely disgusting. I feel sorry for you honestly.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 8:34 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
This is like the third time I have seen this in three months.
If it makes you feel better, the error was in overstating of how much aid we have sent, so it’s 2 billion less in aid than we thought.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 9:14 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
This is like the third time I have seen this in three months.
Are the errors on the Ukrainian end or the American end? Also isn’t this the exact reason why we have an IG overseeing the aid?
Posted on 7/26/24 at 9:33 pm to LSUPilot07
quote:
So what you’re saying is if Russia and your hero Putin decided to frick around and find out with an actual shooting war with the U.S. and predictably got the shite kicked out of them because we own the sky and the sea that your hero would then use nukes because that’s all he has left? Man how you can actually support someone like that and their actions is absolutely disgusting. I feel sorry for you honestly.
The glee some of you have for actually getting the US involved in this war is beyond alarming.
We have nothing to gain from putting American troops over there. And Russia is not a real threat to the United States
Posted on 7/26/24 at 9:46 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The war would quickly devolve into a nuclear exchange and we would all be dead.
Again, this is not true. One thing that's increasingly clear is that the US would shoot down the vast majority of Russian missiles and bombers. A few would get through, of course, leading to devastating losses of millions of people, but the United States would survive.
Russia, on the other hand, would be completely annihilated.
The Cold War operated on the theory of Mutually Assured Destruction, or MAD. It's now one of those things that most people in the defense community understand but don't talk about -- but MAD really isn't a thing anymore, as the US would likely decisively win a nuclear war with Russia.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 10:30 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Are the errors on the Ukrainian end or the American end? Also isn’t this the exact reason why we have an IG overseeing the aid?
Presidential authority could have written them down to $0.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:02 pm to GOP_Tiger
We saw how skimming money affected their Feb 2022 actions with dry rotted tires and more. Imagine what we might think the state of their likely never to be used missiles have been maintained.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:40 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
The European Union (EU) transferred the first tranche of proceeds from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.
This should not be in cash, but in arms.
Posted on 7/26/24 at 11:44 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Presidential authority could have written them down to $0.
In many cases, it is like buying 30 year old pick-up truck and paying the original show room price.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 3:51 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Gergely Gulyas, chief of staff for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, accused Ukraine of blackmail due to Hungary’s and Slovakia’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Firstly, notice that you never hear from Orban or Fico directly on this issue. Always statements from their Foreign Ministers or Chiefs of Staff, keeping this PR shite sandwich away from the ones responsible.
Secondly, take all this squealing in context. There is another source of crude oil for both Hungary and Slovakia, via the Adria pipeline from a Croatian port on the Adriatic.
So what's all the complaining about? Answer: The oil from the Adria pipeline does not come from Russia. With all the inherent financial advantages to Orban, Fico and their bud Putin. Financial advantages that help keep Orban and Fico in power.
Brussels knows all of this very well and after all of Orban's shite over the last decade, they are happy to let him stew. They almost certainly had this discussion with Kyiv beforehand, giving their blessing to the pig roast.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 5:25 am to Coeur du Tigre
The truly funny part is how surprised Orban & Co. are pretending to be. The EU prohibited the importation of Russian oil and gas almost two years ago and gave Hungary a temporary exception to give them time to find alternative supply.
How did they spend the time? In any case, the very idea of Ukraine being forced to allow the transit of Russian oil across its territory is absurd. That very oil funds their oppression.
How did they spend the time? In any case, the very idea of Ukraine being forced to allow the transit of Russian oil across its territory is absurd. That very oil funds their oppression.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 5:40 am to Coeur du Tigre
Orban knows that his natural gas is next.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 5:47 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
In any case, the very idea of Ukraine being forced to allow the transit of Russian oil across its territory is absurd. That very oil funds their oppression.
Good point, of course. However Kyiv has to depend on support from the EU countries and cutting off their crude oil - in spite of its origin - is not the way to do it. Plus, and the current issue with Orban and Fico demonstrates this, there is leverage with these pipelines.
There is more to this story if anyone wishes to look into it. It seems that Ukraine is specifically targeting Lukoil - a private Russian company - and the possibility that crude shipments from Rosneft and Tatneft - both essentially state-owned - will continue. Makes no sense unless you follow the money. Could Ukraine be targeting a Lukoil - Orban/Fico relationship?
Edited to add that many recent changes to the management and ownership of Lukoil have taken place since the invasion. To keep it short, I'll just add this:
quote:
In September 2022, chairman Ravil Maganov died after falling from a hospital window. This was not long after board member Alexander Subbotin had died an unusual death. Maganov's replacement as chairman, Vladimir Ivanovich Nekrasov, died suddenly in October 2023. In March 2024, vice president Vitaly Robertus died suddenly.
LINK
This post was edited on 7/27/24 at 5:57 am
Posted on 7/27/24 at 5:50 am to texag7
quote:
We have nothing to gain from putting American troops over there.
It's so bizarre listening to you guys gaslighting us this way:
Putin critics: "we should give Ukraine ATACMS"
Putin apologists: "I guess you sicko liberal freaks are OK with causing a nuclear exchange"
Putin critics: "Putin would never dare risk a hot war with NATO. He knows he would get his arse kicked."
Puting apologists: "It's disgusting how you people want to see American troops killed in a shithole country that you can't even pronounce."
Posted on 7/27/24 at 6:01 am to GOP_Tiger
I laugh when I hear people describe our "nuclear capabilities".
Remember, this is the same govt that cant stop a 20 year old pimpled kid from taking out our leader......but we will "win" a nuclear war. Is this before or after we take a couple hundred nukes while we wait for the stand down order to be removed????
Do you have any idea the state of our silos, or the dei characters in charge of them? Nuclear subs, the same ones we crash into things in the Pacific Ocean with millions of miles of space?? Or our planes many of which arent even operational because we spend to much money on nonsense and not enough on parts.
The last live test of a nuclear bomb was Russian's Tsar I believe, it was nearly a 1000 times larger than those we dropped on Japan. Can you even conceive of the nuclear fallout from a handful of these?
America goes crazy when they run out of Cheetos, or The View is reruns, now imagine an actual nuclear war.
Remember, this is the same govt that cant stop a 20 year old pimpled kid from taking out our leader......but we will "win" a nuclear war. Is this before or after we take a couple hundred nukes while we wait for the stand down order to be removed????
Do you have any idea the state of our silos, or the dei characters in charge of them? Nuclear subs, the same ones we crash into things in the Pacific Ocean with millions of miles of space?? Or our planes many of which arent even operational because we spend to much money on nonsense and not enough on parts.
The last live test of a nuclear bomb was Russian's Tsar I believe, it was nearly a 1000 times larger than those we dropped on Japan. Can you even conceive of the nuclear fallout from a handful of these?
America goes crazy when they run out of Cheetos, or The View is reruns, now imagine an actual nuclear war.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 6:07 am to trinidadtiger
The latest, same as the last, brick by brick......
To the last ukranian alive we will continue to milk the US taxpayer. Honest question. Since you believe its just obsolete weapons......are we paying the civil servants and retirees in ukraine with old tires rather than US cash?
quote:
Russian forces have captured a number of villages since seizing the strategic city of Avdiivka in Donetsk region in February. The region is the focal point of Russia’s slow advance through eastern Ukraine along the 1,000km (600 mile) front.
Since last October, Ukraine has lost large swathes of territory in the east of the country to Russian forces -
To the last ukranian alive we will continue to milk the US taxpayer. Honest question. Since you believe its just obsolete weapons......are we paying the civil servants and retirees in ukraine with old tires rather than US cash?
Posted on 7/27/24 at 6:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
Germany has received oil from Kazakhstan via the same pipeline network, in place of Russia crude.
Posted on 7/27/24 at 6:37 am to CitizenK
Random tweets
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quote:
Kadyrov Calls for Complete Ban on YouTube in Russia
The head of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, has called for a complete blocking of YouTube in Russia, stating, “Unfortunately, we are late: YouTube should have been closed a long time ago, not slowed down, but blocked. Because all our channels – those that protect the interests of Russia in general, the Chechen Republic in particular, people, freedom of speech – they immediately block.”
Kadyrov criticized the platform for promoting “shaitans who mislead people and wreak havoc,” while hindering the development of Russian channels that protect national and regional interests, as well as freedom of speech.
He further argued that other American sites should also be banned in Russia to encourage the use of domestic internet resources. These local resources, he added, need to be made more interesting to attract users.
Kadyrov cited China as an example, where YouTube is officially blocked, leading to the development of robust local media resources. He believes that Russian social networks are not developing because “our top artists, actors, football players” prefer foreign platforms.
“If we closed everything like in China, like in other places, then our sites would develop,” Kadyrov concluded.
LINK
quote:
Residents of the Russian city of Ryazan reported powerful explosions overnight and in the morning
They claim that drones were shot down as they approached the oil refinery and the Diaghilev military airfield.
Pictures of smoke over the city have been posted online.
LINK
quote:
"Ukraine will receive more Patriot air defense systems."
The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak fascinated with a statement.
LINK
quote:
NYT: Russia complains to US about Ukraine's 'covert operation'. Kyiv was asked not to do so
Russia's new defense minister, Andrei Belousov, called Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin in July. According to US officials, he said that the Russians had learned of a "covert operation" that Ukraine was allegedly preparing with the approval of the Americans.
The NYT reports that Pentagon officials were surprised by the allegation, and Belousov's statement was taken seriously. As a result, the U.S. asked Ukraine to take no action.
LINK
quote:
Russian military reporter Alexander Kharchenko reports that logistics on the Russian side are getting worse over time due to the abundance of drones on the Ukrainian side. He says that even a year ago in Robotyne they were dismounted 1 kilometer from the positions, but now dismounting from armour takes place 8-10 km from the front. However, there are no available solutions to the problem yet.
LINK
quote:
Cyberattack on Russia's financial sector intensifies as Russians can't withdraw cash from banks
According to Ukrainian intelligence sources, brokerage applications and ATMs have joined the major banking institutions in Russia that have already had their online services blocked.
From now on, users of several Russian banks will be unable to withdraw cash as their debit and credit cards will be immediately blocked when they try to use an ATM.
LINK
quote:
Russians appeal to Putin to close the skies over Belgorod
"Help the residents of Belgorod, they need air defense," the poster reads.
LINK
quote:
In Russia, after another dam burst, water is approaching a major regional center - the city of Chelyabinsk
In the neighboring village of Mihiri, people are stranded because of a bridge destroyed in the disaster.
People are already being evacuated from other villages. The water has already receded from some settlements.
LINK
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