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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:13 pm to
Posted by Camp Randall
The Shadow of the Valley of Death
Member since Nov 2005
17571 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 1:13 pm to
3 more days at most
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 4:06 pm to
quote:


To be fair to Ukrainian pilots you it’s an impossible task to ask them to go straight from their rushed training on a completely new airframe that has way more advanced systems than what they were used to with their Mig-29s and then ask them to put all that brand new knowledge they just learned and apply it to a battlefield setting attacking the hottest spots on the combat line.


Going back to a Ward Carroll (Tomcat RIO) video a month or two ago, the tactics for US weapons are different than Russian tactics and systems designed for different tactics. Former Soviet Bloc top aviators flunked training in F-16s on their honed instincts reverting back to Soviet tactics, Poland's best two pilots flunked while less experienced pilots passed the tactics part.
This post was edited on 7/25/24 at 4:07 pm
Posted by Trevaylin
south texas
Member since Feb 2019
10974 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 4:42 pm to
why don't we just get a company of Maverick quality pilots to parachute into Russia and steal their fighter planes for recycle use
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 5:43 pm to
quote:


why don't we just get a company of Maverick quality pilots to parachute into Russia and steal their fighter planes for recycle use


So Russian trained pilots suited for Russian tactics? Got it
Posted by cypher
Member since Sep 2014
5645 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 6:54 pm to
Pentagon finds accounting errors worth $2 billion in aid for Ukraine

by Abbey Fenbert July 26, 2024 2:06 AM

The U.S. Defense Department has identified another $2 billion worth of accounting errors in its estimations of military aid sent to Ukraine, a U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report revealed on July 25.

The Pentagon announced on June 21, 2023 that it had overestimated the value of arms sent to Ukraine over the past two years by $6.2 billion. Now, the discovery of additional errors brings the total unspent sum to $8.2 billion.

The Pentagon has struggled to accurately estimate the cost of defense articles shipped to Ukraine, the GAO report said.

U.S. Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) allows the president to allocate equipment from U.S. stocks, such as ammunition, vehicles, and medical supplies, to respond to crises abroad. PDA arises from the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961.

The Pentagon's "efforts to properly value defense articles for drawdown are hampered because the Foreign Assistance Act does not clearly define certain terms and DOD lacks PDA-specific valuation guidance," according to the GAO.

Due to the errors, the Defense Department can send a further $2 billion in weapons to Ukraine to cover the amount already approved by U.S. President Joe Biden.

The Kyiv Independent
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 7:01 pm to
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 7:37 pm to
Seems like a big deal if true. A quick Google search says the shortest distance between Romania and Ukraine is 386 miles. Can air defence cover that sort of distance?
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14807 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 7:51 pm to
The Danube separates Romania and Ukraine by the Danube port city of izmail


The Danube meanders from Izmail to the Black Sea. Easy for a drone to cross into Romania
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 8:00 pm to
Gotcha. So it's definitely not 386 miles or whatever it was. Friggin google
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 8:01 pm to
ISW Update

quote:

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24.

The Russian military command's willingness to expend a large number of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanized assaults costlier with time.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) indicated that Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash has become Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov attempted to frame Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while demonstrating the Kremlin's own unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations by reinvigorating Russian information operations falsely portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an "illegitimate" leader of Ukraine.

The Kremlin continues to strengthen its ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states.

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and National Police announced that they neutralized a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that had been preparing to commit arson against civilian objects in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.

Select Russian officials continue to call for measures targeting diaspora groups while the Russian government continues efforts to extend its control over migrants in Russia.

Syrian President Bashar al Assad met with Russian President Vladmir Putin in Moscow on July 24.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on July 24 granting deferments from military conscription to employees of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office and Investigative Committee who have higher education and special ranks starting in September 2024.


Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 8:05 pm to
quote:

So it's definitely not 386 miles or whatever it was


Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 8:23 pm to
Admittedly, my eastern European geography is weak. Wasn't sure they shared a border. Apparently they do
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
15671 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 8:55 pm to
386 miles from Russia seems about right, at the closest points
Posted by ticklechain
Forgotten coast
Member since Mar 2018
834 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 9:18 pm to
Just checked again. It for sure says 386 miles. And then there's a tab about the shared border if you scroll down. I'm thinking it's midpoint to midpoint
Posted by WeeWee
Member since Aug 2012
45551 posts
Posted on 7/25/24 at 10:29 pm to
Did yall read Mike Pompeo and David Urban’s take on Ukraine and Russia and peace. Here is part of the plan.

quote:

Impose real sanctions on Russia. The Biden administration’s sanctions sound good on paper but are hollow. The Treasury, for example, exempts Russian banks from U.S. sanctions if their transactions are related to energy production—the most important revenue source for the Kremlin’s war machine.

Bulk up America’s defense industry. We must show our adversaries, especially Russia and China, that they can’t compete with U.S. defense capabilities. Russia’s economy is smaller than Texas’. We can’t allow China to match and surpass the U.S.

Revitalize the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This includes making Europeans pay their fair share. It is time to raise the bar on spending to 3% of member countries’ gross domestic product.

Create a $500 billion “lend-lease” program for Ukraine. Instead of saddling U.S. taxpayers with more bills, let Ukraine borrow as much as it needs to buy American weapons to defeat Russia. This is how we helped Britain in World War II before Pearl Harbor. It’s how we can send a clear signal to Mr. Putin that he will never win.

Lift all restrictions on the type of weapons Ukraine can obtain and use. This will re-establish a position of strength, which Mr. Putin will understand means the war must end. He will face rising costs and no chance of further gain.

These steps would position Mr. Trump to set the terms of a deal: The war stops immediately. Ukraine builds up substantial defense forces so Russia never attacks again. No one recognizes Russia’s occupation and claimed annexation of any Ukrainian territories—just as we never recognized the Soviet incorporation of the Baltic states and withheld recognition from East Germany until 1974. Crimea is demilitarized. Ukraine rebuilds with reparations from Russia’s frozen central-bank reserves, not U.S. taxpayer dollars

Ukraine joins NATO as soon as possible so all European allies assume the burden of protecting it. NATO should establish a $100 billion fund for arming Ukraine, with the U.S. share capped at 20%, as is the case with other alliance common budgets. The European Union should swiftly admit Ukraine and help it modernize and develop its economy.

If Russia complies with these terms, the West will gradually lift sanctions. They will be fully removed once Ukraine is in both NATO and the EU.

These steps, and not the half-measures of the Biden administration, will end the war, establish a lasting peace, ensure Europe bears the burden of maintaining it, and re-establish freedom and security on the Continent.

To those who doubt: The last thing Mr. Trump wants in a second term is a foreign-policy failure that distracts from his domestic agenda and makes Mr. Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan look like a success in comparison.

WSJ

All of the people who know Trump best think that he will not abandon Ukraine and this is just one of several plans “leaked” by Trump’s people. Yet the PT board posters and Russian cum drinkers want us to believe that a Trump win is curtains for cargo pants.
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4325 posts
Posted on 7/26/24 at 3:11 am to
quote:

Syrian President Bashar al Assad met with Russian President Vladmir Putin in Moscow on July 24.
Birds of psychopathy flock together. Assad is shopping for a bolt hole in Russia. And shopping fast.
Posted by Lima Whiskey
Member since Apr 2013
22594 posts
Posted on 7/26/24 at 3:54 am to
quote:

Bulk up America’s defense industry. We must show our adversaries, especially Russia and China, that they can’t compete with U.S. defense capabilities. Russia’s economy is smaller than Texas’. We can’t allow China to match and surpass the U.S.

Revitalize the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. This includes making Europeans pay their fair share. It is time to raise the bar on spending to 3% of member countries’ gross domestic product.

Create a $500 billion “lend-lease” program for Ukraine. Instead of saddling U.S. taxpayers with more bills, let Ukraine borrow as much as it needs to buy American weapons to defeat Russia. This is how we helped Britain in World War II before Pearl Harbor. It’s how we can send a clear signal to Mr. Putin that he will never win.

Lift all restrictions on the type of weapons Ukraine can obtain and use. This will re-establish a position of strength, which Mr. Putin will understand means the war must end. He will face rising costs and no chance of further gain.

These steps would position Mr. Trump to set the terms of a deal: The war stops immediately. Ukraine builds up substantial defense forces so Russia never attacks again


This won't work because the industrial capacity doesn't exist in the West to achieve anything like parity with the Russians. Russias industrial advantage has increased since the war started. Ukraine's leverage is time and cost, they can offer Russia a cheaper victory if Russia is willing to settle for less
Posted by Coeur du Tigre
It was just outside of Barstow...
Member since Nov 2008
4325 posts
Posted on 7/26/24 at 4:02 am to
quote:

The Treasury, for example, exempts Russian banks from U.S. sanctions if their transactions are related to energy production—the most important revenue source for the Kremlin’s war machine.


They have a point but sanctioning Russian energy exports is very complicated. Too many allies dependant on Russian oil and gas. Piped gas to the EU markets was shut down by the Russians themselves (and the loss of the Nord Stream pipelines), so Gazprom is really hurting.

However, LNG and crude oil exports continue, albeit under heavy price constraints. It pisses us off to see crude lightering operations going on in the Agean, but when you realize that Russia is getting hammered on this revenue, it starts making sense. Keep potential Russian allies sweet with oil that is a minimal help to the Russians.

quote:

The Russian oil industry has, however, suffered from significant revenue and profit losses due to the EU oil embargo. From December 2022 through March 2023, for example, Russia’s average monthly Urals crude-export prices have fallen to $48–50 per barrel due to the steep price discounts demanded by Asian consumers.

Russian oil exporters have managed to reduce these Asian discounts. In the second quarter of 2023, Urals oil prices rebounded to $55–58 per barrel. They exceeded $60 per barrel in July 2023 and reached $80 per barrel in September 2023. Overall, Asian price discounts for Urals oil have been reduced to $10–12 per barrel. Since November 2023, after the US Government has exerted some sanctions enforcement pressure on oil shippers and traders, discounts for Russian oil shipped to Asia grew again – they now stand at about $17 per barrel, but the average price of the Russian Urals oil export crude was around $68 per barrel in April 2024, well above the G7 oil price cap .

Oil-price level is not the only parameter influencing the profitability of Russian oil exports to Asia. Another is the significantly higher cost of shipping oil to Asian markets. For instance, there’s a reason why Russia barely exported any crude-oil volumes to India before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It takes approximately a month for an oil tanker to travel from Russia’s Black or Baltic Sea ports to India. In contrast, it takes just a few days to ship oil to Genoa or Rotterdam. Shipping oil to India also involves passing through additional bottlenecks, such as the Suez Canal or Bab al-Mandeb Strait, where tankers risk delays due to traffic and incur additional demurrage and insurance costs. Per the author’s estimates (as exact figures are unavailable), the extra costs of shipping Russian oil from Novorossiysk or Primorsk to India vary in the range of $10–15 per barrel, significantly reducing the efficacy of exports to India and other Asian destinations.


We could do better, but the options are limited. If you want a deep dive, here are two good coverages of the issue:

US Treasury on US actors.

Above quoted material.
This post was edited on 7/26/24 at 4:26 am
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
13312 posts
Posted on 7/26/24 at 5:57 am to
quote:

the industrial capacity doesn't exist in the West to achieve anything like parity with the Russians.


I realize this is a talking point that you get paid to parrot. But it's so absurd that I have to keep calling it out.

Russia produces zero computer chips. It has one factory that produces about 100 artillery barrels per year. The machines in that factory all came from Germany. All of its oil refining equipment comes from Asia or Europe. It cannot make ball bearings to modern specs. Its auto manufacturing triumph is the Lada.

Russia makes a few raw commodities in large quantities. But a war machine takes millions of SKUs to keep rolling.

The economies of the US, EU, UK, Japan and South Korea alone are 35x larger than Russia's.

If Russia had such an advantage over the West, why is it buying artillery shells and barrels from North fricking Korea? Why are its drones made in Iran?

You don't even believe what you're spewing.
Posted by StormyMcMan
USA
Member since Oct 2016
4669 posts
Posted on 7/26/24 at 6:05 am to
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