re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years, but Syrskyi's statement is not indicative of a sudden increase in the Russian military's presence in Ukraine and is instead representative of the manpower and material disadvantage that Ukrainian forces have faced for over two years.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with People's Republic of China (PRC) Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou on July 24 and discussed the war in Ukraine and the PRC's potential role in a future negotiated settlement of the war.

The Russian State Duma adopted an amendment on July 24 that will allow Russian commanders to punish subordinates for using personal communication and navigation devices at the frontline, drawing continued backlash from Russian ultranationalists as well as other Duma deputies.

The Georgian State Security Service (SUS or SSSG) reiterated standard Kremlin information operations targeting former Georgian opposition figures and former Ukrainian law enforcement officials.

An assassination attempt injured a reported senior Russian military intelligence officer in Moscow City on July 24.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.

Russian officials continue efforts to entice Russians into military service with monetary incentives.

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Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years

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Everything still going according to plan?

Ahahahhahahah

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 25 July 2024

On 23 July 2024 Ukrainian forces damaged the rail Roll On-Roll Off (RO-RO) ferry SLAVYANIN in Port Kavkaz, Russia. The strike will almost certainly cause Russia further logistical problems in supplying its occupying forces in southern Ukraine and the regional export of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG).

The SLAVYANIN has the largest capacity of the three rail RO-ROS transiting the Kerch Strait between Russia and the Crimean Peninsula. Following the successful Ukrainian missile strikes which damaged the other two rail RO-RO vessels on 29 May 2024, SLAVYANIN had been put back into service as the only rail RO-RO ferry. Prior to 29 May, the SLAVYANIN was highly likely transporting LPG to customers in the Black Sea.

Rendering RO-RO ferries non-operational, even temporarily, reduces imposes increased costs as well as reducing Russia's flexibility to transport fuel, munitions and equipment across the Kerch Strait. Since these attacks Russia has highly likely been forced to change its security procedures and risk the movement of fuel trainsets across the Kerch bridge, something it had tried to avoid doing since the first attack on the bridge in October 2022.

To be fair to Ukrainian pilots you it’s an impossible task to ask them to go straight from their rushed training on a completely new airframe that has way more advanced systems than what they were used to with their Mig-29s and then ask them to put all that brand new knowledge they just learned and apply it to a battlefield setting attacking the hottest spots on the combat line. I always thought and agree that this is the correct way to integrate the F-16 into Ukraine’s AF. Let these new pilots get some actual seat time and real life experience protecting Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure from missiles and drones so that when more pilots and aircraft are ready for Ukraine to take delivery they will have a small group of pilots that have that knowledge they can pass down to newly graduated F-16 pilots. Notice he said 40 km though. That still means that along with working to protect from missile strikes far behind the lines that they also will be used to drop JDAMs on enemy positions from altitude much like the Russians are doing to the Ukrainians with their glide bombs. That being said I think a lot of people who have hoped Biden would lift the ban on using ATACMS deep into Russia now that he’s out of the race will be very disappointed. Its clear he’s not the guy in charge calling the shots and hasn’t been in a really long time. I don’t see Joe stepping up to do much more for Ukraine now that he’s not getting anything out of it anymore (votes).

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about the "quality" of US weapons in the war not really being up to snuff.

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Not an expert here but at some level I could see there would be at least some truth to that. Assuming of course a good deal the what has been delivered was not in pristine condition to begin with.

A Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter crashed in the Kaluga region of Russia, barbecuing the pig crew.

LINK

Nothing but lies. These people are evil as hell.

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Not an expert here but at some level I could see there would be at least some truth to that. Assuming of course a good deal the what has been delivered was not in pristine condition to begin with.

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True, and there could be a bit of people not being precise with their language as well in that maybe they mean the weapons aren't as effective as they thought because of the new tactics being deployed, not that they are necessarily bad pieces of equipment when used in the environment they are designed for.

U.S. Intercepts Russian and Chinese Bombers on First Joint Mission Off Alaska (WSJ)

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Russian and Chinese warplanes were intercepted off the coast of Alaska by U.S. and Canadian fighters Wednesday, marking the first time strategic bombers from the two U.S. adversaries have operated together near North America, a U.S. official said.

Two Russian TU-95 Bear and two Chinese H-6 bombers flew into the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, a buffer zone in international airspace, the North American Aerospace Defense Command said. The flights were the most recent sign of growing military and security cooperation between Moscow and Beijing.

The Russian and Chinese bombers all took off from a Russian air base, a development first reported by Air & Space Forces Magazine and confirmed by a second U.S. official.

Norad, a joint U.S. and Canadian command that protects against air threats to North America, said the Russian and Chinese planes didn’t enter U.S. or Canadian airspace and weren’t seen as a military threat.

The Russian and Chinese planes were intercepted by U.S. F-16s and F-35s as well as Canadian CF-18s. “Norad will continue to monitor competitor activity near North America and meet presence with presence,” the command said.

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In August last year, a combined Russian and Chinese naval force patrolled near the coast of Alaska in what experts said was the largest such flotilla to approach American shores.

Eleven Russian and Chinese ships steamed close to the Aleutian Islands. The ships, which were shadowed by U.S. destroyers and P-8 Poseidon aircraft, never entered U.S. territorial waters.

China has also bolstered Russia’s military industry by providing it with microelectronics, machine tools and other dual-use components, which have helped Moscow to produce more weapons for its invasion of Ukraine.

In 2023, some 90% of Russia’s microelectronics imports, critical for the production of missiles, tanks, and aircraft, were sent from China, according to U.S. officials.

China has also provided satellite imagery that Moscow has used for military operations. China has denied supplying weapons to Russia and says it strictly controls the trade of dual-use goods.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, at its summit meeting in Washington earlier this month, called on Beijing “to cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry said its aerospace forces and the Chinese air force had conducted a joint air patrol mission.

“An air group of the Tu-95MS strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Hong-6K strategic bombers of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force conducted a joint air patrol over the Chukchi Sea, the Bering Sea and the northern part of the Pacific Ocean,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.

It added that the joint flight had lasted over five hours and that the bombers were escorted by Russian jet fighters. After completing the flight, the planes returned to their home airfields.

“The activity was carried out as part of the 2024 military cooperation plan and was not directed against third countries,” the Russian Defense Ministry said.

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