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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/20/24 at 12:52 am to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 7/20/24 at 12:52 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:To clarify, when Trump said Mexico would pay for the wall, tariffs were the intended instrument. So yes, Mexico was going to pay for the wall (unless it acted to stem flow-through immigration itself). Granted, Ryan and McConnell undercut Trump every step of the way, which created major impediments to implementation.
Unfortunately, a number of you seem unable to understand the point that I am making (or even what Trump is saying)
Regarding the war in Ukraine, when Trump is elected in November, his team will begin formulating plans to end the war. Those plans will be structured to pressure both sides to the negotiating table. Though the Trump team will not involve the parties directly prior to Trump taking office, their plans will be leaked. They will incent Russian-Ukrainian dialog. I would expect such dialog to be well underway by the time Trump takes the oath of office. So while cessation of hostilities within "24 hrs" may turn out to be hyperbolic, it is neither impossible nor inconceivable.
This post was edited on 7/20/24 at 12:55 am
1
Posted on 7/20/24 at 1:19 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
when Trump said Mexico would pay for the wall, tariffs were the intended instrument. So yes, Mexico was going to pay for the wall
No, us citizens were gonna be footing that bill. That's how tariffs actually work.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 5:54 am to MoarKilometers
quote:Ah, such simplicity.
No, us citizens were gonna be footing that bill. That's how tariffs actually work.
You assume tax/tariff costs are simply passed on in export pricing. In some cases your assumption may actually be true. In most cases it isn't. Even with domestic corporate taxes, the economics play out at around only a 2/3rds pass-thru consumer exposure. Meaning 1/3rd is absorbed by the corporation.
So in general economic terms, your premise of full consumer exposure to tariff costs is false. In actual application, additional to standard corporate measures noted above, the targeted country is domestically pressured to offer compensatory subsidies to further cover costs rather than risking diminished exports. In those instances, a substantial portion of tariff cost is borne by the exporting nation. E.g., That's of course what we saw with Chinese tariffs in response to targeted dumping.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 6:38 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
the economics play out at around only a 2/3rds pass-thru consumer exposure. Meaning 1/3rd is absorbed by the corporation.
That’s a really convoluted way to say “most of it is paid for by the consumer”
Posted on 7/20/24 at 6:50 am to Hateradedrink
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 July 2024
Russia continues offensive operations on several areas of the front line. It is likely that the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast remains the Russian main effort and consequently has seen the highest operational tempo by Russian forces over the last month. Russian forces have continued to gain territory to the north and west of the town of Ocheretyne, expanding its salient towards the town of Pokrovsk.
Also in the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector, Russia has made minor advances into the town of Niu-York, a heavily fortified area of the front line and the last remaining point of the pre-2022 line of contact that existed between Ukrainian forces and Russian-led Separatist Forces.
Near the Donetsk Oblast town of Chasiv Yar, there have been no significant changes in territorial control. It has been reported that major Russian infantry assaults have stopped over the past few days and that Russian forces are largely operating in dispersed small, dismounted squads. Russian forces in this area are likely taking a tactical pause while conducting probing attacks and reconnaissance activity.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 20 July 2024
Russia continues offensive operations on several areas of the front line. It is likely that the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast remains the Russian main effort and consequently has seen the highest operational tempo by Russian forces over the last month. Russian forces have continued to gain territory to the north and west of the town of Ocheretyne, expanding its salient towards the town of Pokrovsk.
Also in the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector, Russia has made minor advances into the town of Niu-York, a heavily fortified area of the front line and the last remaining point of the pre-2022 line of contact that existed between Ukrainian forces and Russian-led Separatist Forces.
Near the Donetsk Oblast town of Chasiv Yar, there have been no significant changes in territorial control. It has been reported that major Russian infantry assaults have stopped over the past few days and that Russian forces are largely operating in dispersed small, dismounted squads. Russian forces in this area are likely taking a tactical pause while conducting probing attacks and reconnaissance activity.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 7:26 am to cypher
Posted on 7/20/24 at 7:35 am to Hateradedrink
quote:Not convoluted at all.
That’s a really convoluted way to say “most of it is paid for by the consumer”
The reference was to domestic corporate tax.
That reference was juxtaposed with the lesser impact of tariffs.
The point was raised because most, perhaps like yourself, assume corporate tax to represent an automatic 100% pass-through to the consumer. The point being, even in that instance, consumer exposure can be somewhat mitigated.
Mitigation of domestic exposure to tariff costs is a far more prominent factor than that of standard corporate taxation. Any contention that tariffs, in an unbalanced trade scenario, represent the same consumer cost as domestic taxation is terribly uninformed.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 7:58 am to cypher
quote:
It is likely that the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast remains the Russian main effort and consequently has seen the highest operational tempo by Russian forces over the last month.
It's the only sector of the front where Russia is still making advances of any significance. The Kharkiv advance failed far short of expectations, and Ukraine is retaking territory there. The advances upon Chasiv Yar have slowed to a crawl.
Overall, we're beginning to see a lower operational tempo along the front. The last two weeks have seen a gradual lessening of casualties and equipment losses.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 8:01 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Any contention that tariffs, in an unbalanced trade scenario, represent the same consumer cost as domestic taxation is terribly uninformed.
I believe you have it backwards.
Tariff costs are compounded by profit margins. For instance: if I am importing a container from China that costs me $10,000, I would be selling that container for $15,000, which is a 33% profit margin.
But if I get slapped with a 25% tariff of $2500, I'm not marking the goods up by $2500 (to $17,500 per container). In order to maintain my profit margin I'm marking them up to $18,750 to maintain my 33%.
So that $2500 tariff becomes a $3750 tax on the consumer.
Another important difference between consumer taxes (like tariffs) and corporate taxes is that consumer taxes are highly regressive. They hurt the poor and working class people the most.
Corporate taxes have the effect of lowering dividends and reducing corporate CAPEX, which is less regressive and hurts long term growth and investment.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 8:28 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I'm heartbroken.
You're brain broken.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 8:57 am to No Colors
quote:Then you will lose sales.
But if I get slapped with a 25% tariff of $2500, I'm not marking the goods up by $2500 (to $17,500 per container). In order to maintain my profit margin I'm marking them up to $18,750 to maintain my 33%.
Again, though, the point is the exporting country is politically incented to issue counter-tariff subsidies to lessen its domestic industry impacts. In fact, that is what we are seeing in scenarios involving nations with export >>> import US trade imbalances.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 9:22 am to No Colors
I’m sure you’d know a lot about importing containers. That went well
Posted on 7/20/24 at 9:53 am to No Colors
quote:
Tariff costs are compounded by profit margins. For instance: if I am importing a container from China that costs me $10,000, I would be selling that container for $15,000, which is a 33% profit margin. But if I get slapped with a 25% tariff of $2500, I'm not marking the goods up by $2500 (to $17,500 per container). In order to maintain my profit margin I'm marking them up to $18,750 to maintain my 33%.
You can't look at these as single transaction scenarios.
The way it really works:
China decides they want to take market share and grow their widget manufacturing base. They look at US domestic prices at $5 per widget and their domestic production and realize they can deliver widgets at $5.25 per widget. So they subsidize widgets by $1 to accomplish their goal of taking widget market share.
US domestic manufacturers can't compete because they are standing on their own as well as being hampered by the US and state governments through a myriad of labor, environment, and other taxes and regulations.
US domestic production shuts down. Factories are decommissioned. China then raises prices to $5.50 per widget once their competition is eliminated. They know because of the retarded enviro-commies and the fact widget manufacturing is high in co2 emissions and the factory was within 100 miles of a reservation it will never reopen. They also know that investors know that if you try they'll dump widgets again and destroy your investment.
Now retarded us policy has caused 10% widget tax on consumers.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 9:54 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Overall, we're beginning to see a lower operational tempo along the front. The last two weeks have seen a gradual lessening of casualties and equipment losses.
Please tell me where you see this cripple fight in 12 months?
Posted on 7/20/24 at 10:55 am to Tiger985
quote:
Please tell me where you see this cripple fight in 12 months?
There are too many variables to give a forecast, but we do know that it won't look like today's fight. Some reasons:
1) Russia's vast stocks of Soviet equipment are beginning to run low. Russia will soon begin changing tactics to conserve artillery and armored vehicles (some would argue that is already happening).
2) In 12 months, Ukraine will have 9 Patriot systems, and F-16s and Mirage 2000 fighters will protect Ukrainian skies and prevent Russian bombers from saturating the front with glide bombs.
3) European assistance to Ukraine will continue to keep Ukraine in the fight, even if US assistance decreases.
4) Russia will be broke. They have burned up over half of their sovereign reserves already and cannot continue to finance the war indefinitely. Financial collapse is the ultimate end of this war.for Russia. No one knows exactly when that will happen, but it will happen eventually.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 11:14 am to GOP_Tiger
How good are T54 tanks?
Posted on 7/20/24 at 11:22 am to GOP_Tiger
You said this same shite last year. Thanks for proving my point:
Russia running out of shite.
NATO weapons would be a difference maker. This year it's planes instead of tanks.
The only thing different will be a lot more bodies and money burned up.
Map will be largely the same. Same as last year, same as next year.
Mass madness.
Russia running out of shite.
NATO weapons would be a difference maker. This year it's planes instead of tanks.
The only thing different will be a lot more bodies and money burned up.
Map will be largely the same. Same as last year, same as next year.
Mass madness.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 11:25 am to Auburn1968
quote:
How good are T54 tanks?
They are deadly, but much, much easier for Ukrainians to kill before the T-54 kills them first. Russian combat power in this war has already peaked.
Another reason that the war will not look the same in 12 months is that Putin desperately doesn't want to do another big mobilization, because that would bankrupt the economy even faster and cause civic unrest. And Russia is finally struggling to recruit enough soldiers to maintain current force levels
Posted on 7/20/24 at 11:26 am to texag7
quote:
I’m sure you’d know a lot about importing containers. That went well
Yes I do. And yes it did.
I've got 2 full of custom hardwood floors on the water right now. I've got 12 employees. I appreciate the compliment.
Posted on 7/20/24 at 11:26 am to texag7
quote:
Who gives a shite if it’s 24 hours or 48 hours or 96 hours. When you resort to focusing on the smallest details it shows you have nothing. I’m just happy your tax dollars will go to the wall next year and not Ukraine.
What Trump is saying is the actions he takes on day one are going to help end the war.
He is also saying the dollars spent on the green scam will be spent elsewhere. He didn’t exclude Ukraine.
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