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Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:48 pm to doubleb
quote:
Russia has had a bad time with logistics versus Ukraine. How bad would it be with US AirPower dominating?
We’d definitely hammer their logistics. But where we’d struggle is supporting a large conventional mechanized force over a matter of several months or more. If NATO were to fight a war against Russia, we’d be looking at at least an American Army* sized force on the ground, maybe even Army Group**. To support such a force would require a gargantuan logistics effort that would require things like rationing certain commodities here at home and a massive ramp-up of industrial output as well.
* An Army consists usually two or more Corps, each of which in turn consists of 2,3, or more divisions. Each division has about 15,000 men. On top of this, at the Corps and Army level, you will have several attached brigades (usually 2,000 - 5,000 solders) with various functions ranging from artillery, military police, and various support services. A field army will most likely consist of north of 100K soldiers.
** An Army Group consists of two or more field armies, so north of 200,000 troops.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:53 pm to Darth_Vader
Wouldn’t NATO plan for this and already have the infrastructure in place to pull that off?
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:54 pm to Darth_Vader
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:54 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
He cant call an election because Crimea is controlled by the Russians. Same place that voted 90% to be part of Russia, okay cargo pants does not have to worry about them voting against him.
quote:
He cant call an election because Donbas is controlled by the Russians. The same folks he had been bombing and killing for years before this started. okay cargo pants does not have to worry about them voting against him.
Expect Ukraine did hold an election after 2014...you know when martial law wasn't declared
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:57 pm to Darth_Vader
IIRC Russian divisions are smaller than NATO divisions. So a Russian army would be about the size of a NATO corps, etc.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:58 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
fully feasible Putin would have backed the frick off if you gave him Donbas and Crimea and full access to the Black Sea and securities Ukraine would never join NATO.
Despite Putin saying the April peace deals were a no go on April 12, 2022
quote:
In the strongest signal to date that the war will grind on for longer, Putin said Kyiv had derailed peace talks by staging what he said were fake claims of Russian war crimes and by demanding security guarantees to cover the whole of Ukraine.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:59 pm to trinidadtiger
quote:
Mother Russia will take back what is Mother Russia's.
So what is Mother Russias exactly?
Posted on 5/21/24 at 7:59 pm to Jim Rockford
I’m redrawing my borders. I now own my neighbors pool and outdoor kitchen.
Victoria Nuland and NATO made me do it.
Victoria Nuland and NATO made me do it.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 8:05 pm to doubleb
quote:
Wouldn’t NATO plan for this and already have the infrastructure in place to pull that off?
I know we use to. Back in my day, again I’m talking about the height of the Cold War, we would hold annual training exercises called “REFORGER”* where we did a mock war game in Germany that included forces being sent to Europe to take part in a possible war against the Soviets. The whole purpose was to ensure we had the capability to quickly move multiple divisions from the US to Europe in case of a Soviet attack. Part of this readiness was maintaining gargantuan depots of ammunition, weapons, and vehicles in Europe.
But with the end of the Cold War, all of that was scaled back. All this happened in the mid-90s, after my active duty time had ended, so I can’t say to what scale the drawdown was. But from what I’ve been told, our conventional force capabilities in Europe was severely curtailed in the 90s.
As for our NATO allies, when the Cold War ended most of them all but shutdown their military spending. The German military in particular was gutted to the point it became impotent.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 8:07 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
IIRC Russian divisions are smaller than NATO divisions. So a Russian army would be about the size of a NATO corps, etc.
I’m not sure how they’re structured now, but historically Russian divisions are indeed more akin to a reinforced Western brigade.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 8:22 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Hmmm, I’ve been told here repeatedly it’s impossible Russia will use tactical nukes. So why would they be training if you’re right?
So that people like you and Jake Sullivan will wet your pants and worry about escalation and continue the policy of not allowing Ukraine to use our weapons to strike Russian forces on Russian soil.
Thanks for asking.
This post was edited on 5/21/24 at 8:22 pm
Posted on 5/21/24 at 8:59 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Hmmm, I’ve been told here repeatedly it’s impossible Russia will use tactical nukes.
No, you were told it would be absolutely retarded. I get you struggle with picking up on the difference.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:02 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
require a gargantuan logistics effort that would require things like rationing certain commodities here at home and a massive ramp-up of industrial output as well.
Food stuffs, we have plenty of.
This is what the majority of the "Aid to Ukraine" has consisted of, including expanding capabilities. Note that the companies manufacturing munitions are also making it on contract for other nations. Needs of US could jump ahead in line.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:06 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Well tell that to the rest of the thread that have insistently said that not stopping Putin here would be like not stopping Germany in 1938.
Russia is redrawing its maritime borders, to expand them in the Baltic Sea.
LINK
This post was edited on 5/21/24 at 9:08 pm
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:10 pm to Darth_Vader
Thxs for the insight
Posted on 5/21/24 at 9:16 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
The Kremlin continues to time its nuclear saber-rattling to coincide with major policy discussions in the West as part of a Kremlin reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision-makers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that the limited Russian offensive in northern Ukraine is achieving its goal of drawing attention away from intense Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
The Russian military command reportedly initially planned that Russian forces would quickly make significant advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast, but the limited force grouping deployed to the area suggests that the Russian military command likely changed these plans in the lead up to offensive operations in Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian authorities recently arrested the former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA), Major General Ivan Popov, on fraud charges.
The Kremlin is likely using the pattern of recent arrests of high-ranking officials on corruption charges in the Russian MoD to conceal the real reasons for Popov's punishment almost 10 months after his conflict with the Russian military command and subsequent dismissal from his command position.
Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian forces likely damaged the Russian Black Sea Fleet's (BSF) Tsyklon small missile ship in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on May 19.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Donetsk City.
A Russian milblogger claimed that frequent Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian vehicles that lack electronic warfare (EW) systems along the frontline have created an "urgent" shortage of off-road vehicles.
Russian authorities continue to illegally and forcibly deport Ukrainian citizens, including children, to Russia and to forcibly remove Ukrainian citizens deeper into occupied Ukraine.
Posted on 5/21/24 at 11:30 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Drunkle per Drunkle, Russia is way more experienced
those who manage to survive on the battlefield... and the brass who don't fall out of windows...
This post was edited on 5/21/24 at 11:31 pm
Posted on 5/22/24 at 6:14 am to Lee B
Random tweets
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quote:
China has imposed sanctions on 12 U.S. companies and 10 senior U.S. officials - Chinese Foreign Ministry
"The sanctions are imposed for arms sales to Taiwan and as a response to restrictions against Chinese enterprises because of their cooperation with Russia," the statement said.
LINK
quote:
The enemy is delaying the repatriation of the bodies of fallen Ukrainian defenders, –– Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reports.
"All our appeals to return the bodies of the defenders to Ukraine are ignored by the russian side - they refuse to do so without any reason," –– the statement reads.
According to the headquarters, the issue of handing over the bodies of prisoners of war who, according to the russian federation, died in an Il-76 aircraft at the end of January 2024 remains open. In reality, the russian side is once again postponing the possible repatriation.
LINK
quote:
#Sweden has strengthened the defense of Gotland island in the Baltic Sea for fear that #Russia intends to establish control over it.
This was announced by the commander-in-chief of the Swedish Armed Forces, Büden.
Sweden will also allocate about 7 billion dollars for three-year military support to Ukraine.
LINK
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The pre-war aggregate annual output capacity from European 155mm manufacturers (15 companies across 11 countries) is less clear, with maximum estimates at over 450,000, split across: Germany (with Rheinmetall able to make some 100,000 shells per year), Sweden (Saab capacity: 100,000 yearly), Spain (estimated total capacity of around 150,000), Norway (Nammo, around 20,000), France (Nexter, around 15,000), Poland (PGZ, perhaps 30,000), the UK (approximately, 20,000), plus the Czech Republic (CSG and STV Group, with an ability to make tens of thousands of 155s).
Despite many practical problems, political squabbles and delays, NATO-wide 155mm shell production is already showing results. Rheinmetall’s output is expected to hit 450,000 rounds per year by the end of 2023, helped by its acquisition of one of Spain’s two main producers.
Saab will likely reach the 200,000 mark, the Czechs expect to hit 150,000 in 2023, Poland 40,000. Meanwhile, America’s rapid output growth is set to reach 360,000 155s made in 2023, while a new Rheinmetall factory in Australia will be turning out 100,000 of these rounds this year.
Already the 2024 155mm shell production numbers are estimated to further rise from 450,000 to 600,000 for Rheinmetall (across its different plants), 10,000 to 80,000 for Nammo and from 15,000 to 36,000 for Nexter. In the US, 155mm production is expected to reach over 700,000 shells by the end of 2024.
In 2025, Saab alone will be able to make 400,000 of these rounds – about as much as the whole of Europe before Putin’s invasion – while the United States will be producing at least 1.2 million.
Together with the output from the rest of Europe and adding the expanded production at BAE in the UK, as well as Australian and perhaps Japanese factories, there is little doubt that Ukraine’s annual requirement of around 2 million 155mm artillery shells will be easily met by late 2024 and especially in 2025.
LINK
quote:
Ukrainians should prepare for blackouts in winter, not just in summer, as electricity consumption increases in winter, says Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, Chairman of the Board of Ukrenerho.
He said that it would take months and years to restore the power plants that were attacked by the Russian army. "These will not be blackouts, but controlled outages that we, as an operator, are making to preserve the integrity of the system."
LINK
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