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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:46 am to cypher
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:46 am to cypher
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
17 May 2024
In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, with Shoigu replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Patrushev has been appointed a Presidential Aide. Shoigu and Patrushev are influential and long-term allies of Russian President Putin.
Belousov is a professional economist with no military background. He was First Deputy Prime Minister from January 2020, and prior to that served as a Presidential Aide for economic issues. It is likely that he has been appointed to ensure greater efficiency in defence spending and to ensure closer coordination between defence industries and the needs of the Armed Forces.
This is likely to prove extremely challenging for Belousov given the high degrees of corruption in the Russian MOD and Armed Forces. Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, and the head of personnel General-Lieutenant Yury Kuznetsov was arrested on 14 May 2024 on suspicion of involvement in a bribery scheme.
The change of Defence Minister is highly unlikely to have a major immediate impact on the prosecution of the Russian war in Ukraine. With Putin also announcing that there will be no changes to senior appointments in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces the current Russian approach to the war is likely to continue.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE
17 May 2024
In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, with Shoigu replacing Nikolai Patrushev as Secretary of the Russian Security Council. Patrushev has been appointed a Presidential Aide. Shoigu and Patrushev are influential and long-term allies of Russian President Putin.
Belousov is a professional economist with no military background. He was First Deputy Prime Minister from January 2020, and prior to that served as a Presidential Aide for economic issues. It is likely that he has been appointed to ensure greater efficiency in defence spending and to ensure closer coordination between defence industries and the needs of the Armed Forces.
This is likely to prove extremely challenging for Belousov given the high degrees of corruption in the Russian MOD and Armed Forces. Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in April 2024 on corruption charges, and the head of personnel General-Lieutenant Yury Kuznetsov was arrested on 14 May 2024 on suspicion of involvement in a bribery scheme.
The change of Defence Minister is highly unlikely to have a major immediate impact on the prosecution of the Russian war in Ukraine. With Putin also announcing that there will be no changes to senior appointments in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces the current Russian approach to the war is likely to continue.
2
Posted on 5/17/24 at 4:50 am to doubleb
quote:... because if Reagan or Trump is president, we don't push the Ukraine to NATO dialogue, nor do we overthrow a duly elected Ukrainian government. Iif Reagan or Trump is president, Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine in 2014, because he'd have no reason to.
If Reagan, a Bush or Trump is president Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine in 2014.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 5:57 am to cypher
quote:
In a surprise reshuffle the Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has been replaced by First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov...
For a good explantion of this, why it's major news and ultimately will be good for Ukraine, check this short video:
LINK
Belousov won't last a year. Putin is nationalizing military manufacturing bases now with an eye on large profit centers - all owned currently by oilgarchs. He needs a fall guy like Belousov to take the heat. Besides, Belousov has previous experience shaking down oligarchs for 'windfall taxes' twenty years ago. Also under Putin's direction and support. But he has no experience in dealing with the military parasites or the FSB.
If you're currently a Russian oligarch and don't have a large standing private army, you are in trouble.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:14 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
we don't push the Ukraine to NATO dialogue, nor do we overthrow a duly elected Ukrainian government. Iif Reagan or Trump is president, Putin doesn’t invade Ukraine in 2014, because he'd have no reason to.
Things never promised or never happened
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:27 am to OMLandshark
quote:
Up double digit percentages since I last posted here.
Yet still down huge from when you said it was going to moon and there would be a shortage announced in mere weeks.
quote:
Really going to try to own me on that?
Not only did I try, I'd call it a
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 6:29 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 6:33 am to OMLandshark
quote:
have fun pretending to be a morally superior person while demanding tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians die for you to beat off on your LARP. Not to mention being fine with the possibility of a nuclear bomb going off. It was all worth it for your sociopathy.
Says the person who is
quote:
pretending to be a morally superior person
No one here is demanding anyone fight. But you keep demanding Ukraine should just accept a complete surrender and have failed after numerous posts to even show a peace plan that Russia was willing to sign off on that wasn't a complete Ukraine surrender. And then turn around and bitch about how Ukraine is the only party that won't negotiate and its all their fault. But sure sure it's I'm demanding those people go die....and you call me a LARPer
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 6:45 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:02 am to StormyMcMan
video has english subtitles
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
"It's been over 80 drones. They're flying in a row. It's really crazy!"
Footage of a drone attack on Novorossiysk and Tuapse in Russia's Krasnodar region last night.
The commentary of witnesses is curious.
LINK
Dmitri has better translations
LINK Dmitri videos
Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
"It's been over 80 drones. They're flying in a row. It's really crazy!"
Footage of a drone attack on Novorossiysk and Tuapse in Russia's Krasnodar region last night.
The commentary of witnesses is curious.
LINK
Dmitri has better translations
LINK Dmitri videos
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 7:10 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:16 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
14, because he'd have no reason to.
So why did Putin invade Chechnya? Georgia?
Why did Ukraine want in the EU? Why do nations want in NATO? Not to attack Russia, but to have allies agsinst a Russian attack.
By your logic NATO is the bad guy. Russia the victim. Sorry, common sense tells me Russia is the aggressor and the prime cause of this war and several others.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:24 am to CitizenK
quote:OFFS, you're certainly welcome to your own opinion, but not substitution of fiction for fact. Sorry. Fairytales are best reserved for children or adults with an intellectual disability.
Things never promised or never happened
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 7:25 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 7:57 am to doubleb
quote:
Why do nations want in NATO? Not to attack Russia, but to have allies agsinst a Russian attack.
What is the downside to NATO membership for these countries?
A lot of them are spending nearly 2% GDP on defense anyway (and once they are in NATO its not exactly overly enforced if they don't hit 2%). Why not get the strongest militaries in the world to subsidize your defense?
ETA: I ask this because there definitely is downside for the US. We do most of the heavy lifting in NATO. We are tactically isolated geographically. Even the UK and France, who could defend themselves against most armies in the world rather easily, benefit from the strength in numbers aspect with actual neighbor countries being in a defense pact.
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 8:02 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:02 am to StormyMcMan
(no message)
This post was edited on 5/29/26 at 11:16 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:11 am to doubleb
quote:According to the independent EU mission assessment as requested by Georgia? You know the answer to that.
So why did Putin invade Georgia?
The question in any instance of belligerence relates to rationale and/or justification. As in the instance of the Georgia conflict, that is a question around which reasonable people can differ, whereas denying known foundational facts forming basis of justification is not.
quote:By my logic NATO is a stupid, needlessly reckless guy provoking an instinctively paranoid Russia. I see Ukraine as the victim.
By your logic NATO is the bad guy. Russia the victim.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:12 am to OMLandshark
quote:
before the inevitable?
What, specifically, is the inevitable?
The fall of Kiev? Odessa? Total surrender? Four oblasts? What does a Ukraine defeat look like? What does a Russian victory look like?
Russia clearly tried to take the whole country in February of 22. When that failed, the objective of the whole invasion became murky.
But since you seem to know, tell us.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:16 am to CitizenK
quote:Goodness, you really are intellectually immature.
Your lord and savior
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:32 am to cypher
quote:
Tuapse
The refinery has been expanded since 2010 from 85,000 BPD to 240,000 BPD which included a hydrocracker and a FlexiCoker (Exxon technology), The Flexicoker is a fluid bed type process which doesn't produce petroleum coke, instead the coke is used as fuel/gasified to produce more light gases/liquids instead of the profit center of petroleum coke.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:35 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Goodness, you really are intellectually immature.
Not at all. I'm not an ignorant dumbass to buy the far leftist/Kremlin propaganda that the CIA overthrew a government or that Eastern European nations seeking and then joining NATO was any threat to Russia.
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:40 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
By my logic NATO is a stupid, needlessly reckless guy
NATO has been highly successful if you review European history prior to NATO and post NATO.
NATO has defended NATO from Communism. NATO has stopped Western Europeans from fighting each other. NATO had brought stability to Europe. NATO isn’t perfect, NATO had made mistakes, but the success of NATO is apparent. Just look at the number of countries that have wanted in under their defensive umbrella.
Your opinion of NATO is seriously flawed, it isn’t perfect by any means, but it’s proven to be a great alliance and its viability csn be seen by the recent actions of Sweden and Finland as well as Ukraine.
This post was edited on 5/17/24 at 9:02 am
Posted on 5/17/24 at 8:50 am to No Colors
quote:
What, specifically, is the inevitable?
The fall of Kiev? Odessa? Total surrender? Four oblasts? What does a Ukraine defeat look like? What does a Russian victory look like?
Russia clearly tried to take the whole country in February of 22. When that failed, the objective of the whole invasion became murky.
But since you seem to know, tell us.
I think his point is more about, at least in his view, a narrow if not nonexistent path to victory for Ukraine.
It doesn't really matter what Russia's victory looks like if Ukraine can't win regardless, at least in terms of the fact that we need to find an off ramp and take it now before the end-game for Ukraine looks worse than it did in 2022 and at least as bad as it does now.
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