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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:19 pm to Outdoorreb
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:19 pm to Outdoorreb
quote:
And we are all only a gnat’s arse from nuclear war and if the shite goes sour.
Russia’s submarines would never make it to launch depth and the THAADs would protect the USA. Ukraine and most of Eastern Europe would not have enough time to protect themselves if Russia launched a lot of nukes but the USA would be fine. Plus Putin is evil and has a warped since of history but he has shown no signs of being stupid or irrational enough to risk nuclear war.
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Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:20 pm to Darth_Vader
I dont know, Russia has only really taken control of areas that were already disputed and where they had political support already among the people. It's a completely different ballgame to conquer and hold areas where the majority of residents don't want you there. While i think its a near zero chance ukraine takes back significant territory, maybe that's why putin is talking about buffer zones now. They know they probably cant take the rest of ukraine, but they could slowly make it unlivable and push people out.
To the post above, can thaad even intercept icbms? I don't believe so.
To the post above, can thaad even intercept icbms? I don't believe so.
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 8:25 pm
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:25 pm to Pendulum
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Russian state media highlighted Russia and China’s joint effort to combat perceived Western “dual containment” targeting Russia and China during Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing on April 9.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on April 9 that it transferred roughly a brigade’s worth of small arms and ammunition seized from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to Ukraine on April 4.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) is likely responsible for a drone strike against the Borisoglebsk Airbase in Voronezh Oblast overnight on April 8 to 9.
Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to employ virulently anti-migrant rhetoric and calls for xenophobic domestic policies, but in doing so are exposing the inherent hypocrisy in Russia’s treatment of its own indigenous ethnic minority communities.
The Kremlin will likely be able to leverage a new agreement signed by the Kremlin-affiliated governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, and a state-owned Russian bank to further its efforts to destabilize Moldovan society, attack Moldova’s democratic government, and prevent Moldova’s accession to the European Union (EU).
Russia is reportedly considering creating a new ministry for youth policy and patriotic education, likely as part of an ongoing attempt to instill pro-Kremlin and Kremlin-approved ideology in Russia’s next generation.
Russian military authorities in Armenia detained another Russian citizen in Armenia, likely in an effort to assert military and political power over Armenia and to challenge Armenia’s sovereignty amid a continued deterioration of Armenian–Russian relations.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, west of Avdiivka, and south and southwest of Donetsk City on April 9.
Kremlin officials continue efforts to ease public fears about another possible wave of partial mobilization.
The Russian occupation regime in Crimea is systematically persecuting clergy and parishes affiliated with the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) in occupied Crimea.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:25 pm to Tigris
quote:
quote:
I’m sorry, but that’s the unbiased cold, hard truth.
This declaration always turns out to be opinion.
The truth is that western Democracies hold the cards in this. They have economies that dwarf that of Russia. Production problems, sure. But they can buy what they need to supply Ukraine, and still have plenty of obsolete stuff in reserves. It comes down to politics, period. That is the real problem.
In my opinion... we are already in WWIII, 21st-century style... which means less overt military action and more covert things like cyber-warfare and economic moves.
Military hardware, down to Howitzer shells and sidearm ammo, still play a part... but what if there's more effective ways to defeat your opponents (or better yet, trick them into defeating themselves)?
The sides are representational Democracy vs. Autocracy. Many of the battles will be internal and electoral.
I think the West should shift to a Wartime production economy... we've got ground to make up from getting a bit lazy when it seemed like this stuff was mostly in the past. Plus, that would provide quite the economic boost.
I hope Taiwan is stocking up on those Ukrainian-style Naval drones by the hundreds of thousands, and some solid Air defense systems.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:26 pm to WeeWee
quote:
the Power of Siberia pipeline to China
Has it been completed? That was expected for 2025 Limited amounts before then projected so who knows how much actually goes through the substandard pipeline.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:26 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know you don’t want to admit this, but the cold hard unemotional truth is, while the war cannot go on forever, Russia possesses the ability to sustain it far longer than Ukraine does. And in a war of attention, which is exact what this war has been for almost two years, the side that has the manpower and industrial capability to feed the meat grinder longer, will win. It’s only a matter of time.
These are the facts. Whenever they hear something they don't like, they immediately go to personal attacks, it's pathetic.
I could post about 20 videos of Ukrainian positions and warehouses getting absolutely wrecked by FABs in the last 48 hours but I don't think they can handle it right now.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:28 pm to Pendulum
quote:
I dont know, Russia has only really taken control of areas that were already disputed and where they had political support already among the people. It's a completely different ballgame to conquer and hold areas where the majority of residents don't want you there. Maybe that's why putin is talking about buffer zones now. They know they probably cant take the rest of ukraine, but they could slowly make it unlivable and push people out.
If Kharkiv and Odessa had dedicated Patriot batteries like Kyiv has it would be fine. Russia already has to almost an entire month’s worth of missiles per attack and route missiles through undefended airspace corridors to overwhelm Ukraine’s depleted air defenses.
Also Putin’s focus on the SMO and ignoring stuff at home is going to cost him. Russians are already protesting about the response to the flooding from the dam break and the spring thaw hasn’t even really started yet.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:30 pm to WeeWee
quote:
That is not counting shell production in Japan, Australia, Chile, Brazil, Egypt, Turkey, or South Korea. It is also not counting the 1.2 million 152mm and 155mm shells the Czech Republic or the additional 800,000 shells Estonia has located for Ukraine. Even if the USA and EU only reach half their production targets they will still be equal to Russian production. Unless you are naive enough to believe the claims that Russia is producing 3 million shells per year. Which it obviously isn’t since it’s importing shells from Iran and North Korea.
First: this has to happen for it to be viable. Ukraine does not have 2,600,000 155mm artillery shells currently. Unless the US actually puts in the production request, they won't get 2.6M shells magically.
Second: I don't believe Russia is even producing 1.3m 152mm shells annually. Remember when they claimed they were producing thousands of drones but they were showing a factory with a mirror in it to make it look bigger than it was?
My thoughts on 155mm artillery are fairly well known at this point, no? I really hope the US/EU produces the amount of shells where Ukraine can destroy Russian artillery through counter-battery operations. But after 6 months of seeing Mike Johnson drag his feet with no end in sight, I'm sorry, but I can't hold out much hope for the US congress.Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:30 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Has it been completed?
The first part of it has according to Wikipedia.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:31 pm to Tigris
quote:
But they can buy what they need to supply Ukraine
It generally doesn't exist to buy. Zelensky was asking the other day for more Patriot batteries than have been produced in its entire production run. Interceptor production is nowhere near what they need as well.
The problem you see with new heavy weapons systems, limited production capacity, also apply to the process of refurbishing older ones, so there's no panacea there.
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 8:33 pm
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:35 pm to ColtRange
quote:
I could post about 20 videos of Ukrainian positions and warehouses getting absolutely wrecked by FABs in the last 48 hours but I don't think they can handle it right now.
You mean like the picture you posted the other day when you posted a picture saying that there was no damage when the author of the article wrote just below the picture not to make the assumption that you were making?
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:48 pm to Pendulum
quote:
To the post above, can thaad even intercept icbms? I don't believe so.
quote:LINK
According to a statement released by the Agency, the test was conducted in Texas and was the 18th flight test of the THAAD system and 14th overall intercept test of the system since 2005. In that time, THAAD has seen 14 successful interceptions. Before Tuesday’s test, all targets that had been tested were of the short- and medium-range variety.
They did in 2017. The USN Aegis system pared with the SM3 missile is even better at intercepting.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:03 pm to Tigris
quote:
This declaration always turns out to be opinion.
An option free of emotion for or against either side of this war and based on a lifetime of study in military history.
quote:
The truth is that western Democracies hold the cards in this. They have economies that dwarf that of Russia. Production problems, sure. But they can buy what they need to supply Ukraine, and still have plenty of obsolete stuff in reserves.
You can have all the money in the world and it will do you no good if what you want to buy doesn’t exist. And right now there are not enough 155mm shells in existence to meet Ukraine’s needs. Nor is there the industrial infrastructure in the West to quickly ramp up production to meet that demand. The time for economic mobilization in the West was two years ago. But they didn’t do that. Instead, the West has been dipping into their stockpiles to the point they’re running out of supplies to spare. Even if tonight Biden decided to mobilize industry, it would take years to do so. Ukraine doesn’t have years. The West has wasted two years and billions upon billions of dollars offering what they knew, or should have known, was aid on a level that is completely insufficient to meet the demands of this war. Now the war is reaching a stage where, unless Ukraine receives aid on a level so far not seen, and in fact beyond the current industrial capacity of the West to provide, their ability to sustain a solid front will evaporate.
quote:
It comes down to politics, period. That is the real problem.
To quote Clausewitz….
quote:
war is not merely a political act but a real political instrument, a continuation of political intercourse, a carrying out of the same by other means
The only purpose of war is to steer political matters. And war only makes sense so long as your side can use it as a tool to do so. But, when in war one side’s army no longer has the strength to steer political matters in a favorable way, and in fact with each passing day its capability is waning, it’s at that point war loses its usefulness as a tool and its becomes incumbent to seek a way out of the war before the situation worsens to the point you no longer have the ability to influence political matters at all.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:03 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Ukraine was NOT even interested in joining NATO pre 2022. It wanted to join the EU. But nutters gotta nut over fake news.
And I'll add that when Georgia expressed interest in joining NATO...
Russia launched war with Georgia in 2008, recognized independence of two regions and still occupies them
So if you don't see a general pattern here... invade and occupy a chunk of a country before they can ascend into NATO, go back and invade them fully later when you can if they don't bend the knee and get in line.
I'm sure that is why Finland got on board so quick and raced through to membership, after being ambivalent to it before all of this in spite of a long antagonistic relationship with Russia.
NATO States don't get invaded, no matter how small. That's the message Europe has rightfully taken from this...
One of President Saakashvili's primary aims for Georgia was to become a member state of NATO,[86] which has been one of the major stumbling blocks in Georgia–Russia relations.
Although Georgia has no notable gas or oil reserves, its territory hosts part of the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline supplying oil to Turkey. Russia, Iran and the Persian Gulf countries opposed the construction of the pipeline. The pipeline circumvents both Russia and Iran. Because it has decreased Western dependence on Middle East's oil, the pipeline has been a major factor in the United States' backing for Georgia.
During the NATO summit in Bucharest in April 2008, American president George W. Bush campaigned for offering a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia and Ukraine. However, Germany and France said that offering a MAP to Ukraine and Georgia would be "an unnecessary offence" for Russia. NATO stated that Ukraine and Georgia would be admitted in the alliance and pledged to review the requests for MAP in December 2008. Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Bucharest during the summit. At the conclusion of the summit on 4 April, Putin said that NATO's enlargement towards Russia "would be taken in Russia as a direct threat to the security of our country". Following the Bucharest summit, Russian hostility increased and Russia started to actively prepare for the invasion of Georgia. The Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Yuri Baluyevsky said on 11 April that Russia would carry out "steps of a different nature" in addition to military action if Ukraine and Georgia join NATO. General Baluyevsky said in 2012 that after President Putin had decided to wage the war against Georgia prior to the May 2008 inauguration of Dmitry Medvedev as president of Russia, a military action was planned and explicit orders were issued in advance before August 2008. According to Van Herpen, Russia aimed to stop Georgia's accession to NATO and also to bring about a "regime change".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War
I can remember when the U.S.S.R. collapsed, and there was a general "why should NATO exist anymore if the Eastern Bloc is kaput?" The answer from that came from former Soviet Eastern European countries who begged "LET US IN!!!" because they did not trust Russia, Communist or not... the idea in the late 90s inviting Russia to join NATO, which Yeltsin wanted, seems bizarre, now...
The more countries on his border that experience a rising economy and vastly improved standard of living for average people, as well as having functional and non-corrupt governments, the greater the chance Russias rise up against Putin...
It appears that Russia gave at least tacit approval to the enlargement, including the former Soviet Baltic states, and was signalling its desire to be a partner in the European security architecture.
Of course this has changed over the past decade. But the reason for that changed relationship is not Nato – it’s Vladimir Putin.
The History Behind Russia's Claim That NATO Promised Not To Expand To The East
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 9:46 pm
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:13 pm to WeeWee
quote:
You mean like the picture you posted the other day when you posted a picture saying that there was no damage when the author of the article wrote just below the picture not to make the assumption that you were making?
Ukraine claimed they destroyed 6 planes and damaged 8 more. I showed you pictures of the entire airfield with zero damage...you're still bleeding over this? Ukraine lied, what's new?
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:24 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
An option free of emotion for or against either side of this war and based on a lifetime of study in military history.
There is no such thing as an opinion free of emotion. People who study military history (I am one of them btw) are just nerdy Monday morning quarterbacks. History can serve as a guide for what the future holds but it’s not a crystal ball.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:30 pm to ColtRange
quote:
Ukraine claimed they destroyed 6 planes and damaged 8 more. I showed you pictures of the entire airfield with zero damage...you're still bleeding over this?
I never believed the Ukrainian claims. I called you out on your claim that there was no damage. When the author of the article you cited wrote the following just below the picture.
quote:Your own article.
While there are real limits to the amount of information commercially available satellite images can provide, we see no major impacts on the installation. Another image taken later today shows aircraft taxiing and one landing on the runway. Regardless, we must underline that there still could be damage, including to aircraft. Shrapnel effects and other small damage, which can still be catastrophic to aircraft and equipment, simply do not show up in satellite imagery, although subsequent fires and destruction could. So, this does not mean no damage occurred or the attack was outright unsuccessful, but this is what we can see with the imagery available.
Maybe you should read before posting.
ETA: So go ahead and post your videos. We have all seen them in X. They show bombs hitting buildings that Russia claims to be headquarters and warehouses but Russia has also claimed to have destroyed over 100 Himars and Patriot batteries so why should we trust them or you?
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 9:37 pm
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:34 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Russia's economy is propped up oil and gas sales to China and India and some others at less than market prices.
^ this is the one card the West has left to play. If the West really wants to help Ukraine, they’ll halt all efforts at decreasing use of oil and instead signal to the world the West is fully committed to maximizing oil production, refinery expansion, and exploration and expansion of oil production. One of the big influences on oil prices is the long term outlook of oil production in the West due to politically motivated pushes like cancelation of new oil leases, adoption of “green energy” initiatives, and making it impossible to expand refinery capacity.
At the end of the 1970s, oil was north of $120 per barrel. By 1986, it was under $30 per barrel. The result was the Soviet economy, which was as reliant on oil as the Russian economy today, began a precipitous fall that resulted in the eventual collapse of the Soviet Union. Our capability to ramp up oil production far outweighs what we were able to do in the 80s. We could quickly have a huge downward influence on oil if we wanted to. Even something simple like restarting Keystone and opening new oil leases would help rather quickly.
This is how the West can really help Ukraine if they actually want to help. Oil is Russia’s Achilles heel. But so far, we’ve only made half measures to do anything about it.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:41 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Oil is Russia’s Achilles heel. But so far, we’ve only made half measures to do anything about it.
That’s because it’s an election year and there are a lot of parliamentary elections in Europe next year. High gas prices are bad for reelection and Biden can’t politically afford to undo the restraints he has imposed on the US O&G industry. Neither can Trudeau in Canada. It’s a shame because the US and Canada could ramp up production and bankrupt Russia.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:43 pm to WeeWee
quote:
That’s because it’s an election year and there are a lot of parliamentary elections in Europe next year. High gas prices are bad for reelection and Biden can’t politically afford to undo the restraints he has imposed on the US O&G industry. Neither can Trudeau in Canada. It’s a shame because the US and Canada could ramp up production and bankrupt Russia.
This is why I laugh at anyone who thinks Biden and the Democrats have the slightest interest in helping Ukraine in this war. They see this war as just another crisis to not be allowed to go to waste.
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