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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:49 pm to WeeWee
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:49 pm to WeeWee
quote:Putin’s Katrina?
The worse-than-usual seasonal floods have been caused by melting snow from the Ural Mountains, triggering evacuations throughout the area. The Ural river, Europe's third-longest, burst through a dam embankment in the city of Orsk at the weekend. In Orenburg, a city of 500,000 about 300km (180 miles) downstream, waters are expected to reach record levels.
This dam story might turn out to be bigger than expected. The Ural is flooding bigly and it coming so close after the Moscow terrorist attack can’t be good for Putin. Yes I am being overly creative with the Putin’s Katrina stuff but someone has to keep this thread lively.
1
Posted on 4/9/24 at 9:52 pm to WeeWee
quote:
It’s a shame because the US and Canada could ramp up production and bankrupt Russia.
nope... we're producing more oil than any single country ever in the history of the world at the moment...
But OPEC is not a single country, and they can control the price of oil... to the extent that they can put stateside production underwater, financially, if they choose.
Russian oil is sanctioned, and Russia is not making a lot of money on it at this point. China and India and others ignore that and buy it anyway... OPEC has helped them out by keeping prices high enough that even their discounted rate to those two countries lets them make some small profit.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:09 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
This is why I laugh at anyone who thinks Biden and the Democrats have the slightest interest in helping Ukraine in this war.
Agreed. Biden’s or should I say Jake Sullivan’s strategy is to delay Ukrainian defeat until after November.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:11 pm to Lee B
quote:
nope... we're producing more oil than any single country ever in the history of the world at the moment...
Lack of production isn’t the problem. The long term outlook for oil in the West is bleak from a political standpoint due to the energy and environmental policies being implemented.
quote:
But OPEC is not a single country, and they can control the price of oil... to the extent that they can put stateside production underwater, financially, if they choose.
Russian oil is sanctioned, and Russia is not making a lot of money on it at this point. China and India and others ignore that and buy it anyway... OPEC has helped them out by keeping prices high enough that even their discounted rate to those two countries lets them make some small profit.
Another failure of Western leadership. The moment Russia invaded, the US and its Western allies should have made diplomatic efforts to get OPEC to help, instead of hurt, Western efforts to crash the Russian economy. Too late for that now. Just one more example of the ineptitude that permeates Western capitals today, particularly the one nestled on the Potomac between Virginia and Maryland.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:17 pm to Lee B
quote:
It’s a shame because the US and Canada could ramp up production and bankrupt Russia. nope... we're producing more oil than any single country ever in the history of the world at the moment... But OPEC is not a single country, and they can control the price of oil... to the extent that they can put stateside production underwater, financially, if they choose. Russian oil is sanctioned, and Russia is not making a lot of money on it at this point. China and India and others ignore that and buy it anyway... OPEC has helped them out by keeping prices high enough that even their discounted rate to those two countries lets them make some small profit.
It would take much to bankrupt Russia. Russia’s break even price last year was $70 per barrel If the US and Canada increased production then we could easily drop oil prices below that. Since Russia is selling at a discount they are especially vulnerable to a drop in oul prices.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:51 pm to WeeWee
quote:
The Ural is flooding bigly and it coming so close after the Moscow terrorist attack can’t be good for Putin.
The guy weathered the most extensive sanctions in the history of the world and a coup attempt like it was nothing, this flood might do him in though.
Another counteroffensive in the works? Russia fricked
Posted on 4/9/24 at 10:53 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
We could quickly have a huge downward influence on oil if we wanted to. Even something simple like restarting Keystone and opening new oil leases would help rather quickly.
Meh, we are producing more than ever with 4.5-5 million barrels per day being exported. In that more than ever is most ever from offshore. This is in spite of over 2 million BPD lost forever in stripper well being shutdown for Covid.
Keystone is still flowing to Cushing and then to Patokia, IL. Keystone XL became tits on a boar hog after Capline was reversed. We are now exporting Canadian from the Gulf Coast. Much of that new oil is getting paid $40 at the wellhead due high paraffin wax content, or iron content (Euro refineries are not designed to handle any iron in downstream catalytic processes. Some refineries have spent capital to install condensate splitters so they can use that light tight shale "crude oil" Biden approved a shortline RR into the Uinta Basin in Utah. Envirowhackos are holding it up in courts, all 800,000 BPD potential if only an accessible market. That oil doesn't flow well even cut 50% with condensate. Oh it's not a low API gravity but it is full of paraffin wax. It's excellent crude refining but not if asphalt or coking are profit centers due next to zero asphaltenes.
Biden did the right thing in the Summer of 2022 with selling tits on a boar hog SPR crude. The remaining is still well above needs here in the US to replace via sea imports for 3 months. Instead it has at least 6 months worth.
Zero Biden fan, and I won't vote for him this year but I like facts and credit due where earned.
FTR, per former Gazprom finance director friend, in our first meeting in 2015. Russia needs $50 per barrel to breakeven.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 11:02 pm to Lima Whiskey
Zelensky Needs Total of 25 Patriot Batteries
There have been about 1800 launchers produced. And Zelensky is saying he needs 25 systems with 6-8 launchers for each system. So about 10% of all the launchers that have been produced.
That's what he needs total, not in addition to what he already has.
So 10% is not more than 100%. More facts. Less hyperbole.
quote:
Zelensky was asking the other day for more Patriot batteries than have been produced in its entire production run.
There have been about 1800 launchers produced. And Zelensky is saying he needs 25 systems with 6-8 launchers for each system. So about 10% of all the launchers that have been produced.
That's what he needs total, not in addition to what he already has.
So 10% is not more than 100%. More facts. Less hyperbole.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 5:10 am to No Colors
Posted on 4/10/24 at 5:21 am to CitizenK
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 April 2024
Russia continues to conscript soldiers each spring and autumn; the spring conscription commenced on 1 April 2024. Around 150,000 soldiers from the 18-30 age group are to be conscripted this spring, which is consistent with the numbers conscripted previously.
These conscripts will serve for 12 months, in all branches of Russia's military forces, but are currently not employed in combat roles in Ukraine. Conscripts are employed in garrisons across Russia. In land units they generally form a battalion separate from the battalions staffed by contract service soldiers. Some conscript soldiers likely serve in Russia adjacent to the Ukraine border in units providing border security.
Russian forces in Ukraine are staffed by contract service soldiers and some reservists mobilised in late 2022. Conscript soldiers are commonly put under pressure to enlist as contract soldiers and would then be liable for service in Ukraine. There is likely to be some reluctance among Russian authorities to risk combat casualties among conscript soldiers, which would likely be unpopular. Casualties among volunteer soldiers are more tolerated by society.
Russia seeks to recruit around 400,000 contract service personnel in 2024. This is to sustain its forces in Ukraine, which have suffered huge losses, and support its announced plans to increase the size of the armed forces to 1.32 million this year and 1.5 million subsequently.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 10 April 2024
Russia continues to conscript soldiers each spring and autumn; the spring conscription commenced on 1 April 2024. Around 150,000 soldiers from the 18-30 age group are to be conscripted this spring, which is consistent with the numbers conscripted previously.
These conscripts will serve for 12 months, in all branches of Russia's military forces, but are currently not employed in combat roles in Ukraine. Conscripts are employed in garrisons across Russia. In land units they generally form a battalion separate from the battalions staffed by contract service soldiers. Some conscript soldiers likely serve in Russia adjacent to the Ukraine border in units providing border security.
Russian forces in Ukraine are staffed by contract service soldiers and some reservists mobilised in late 2022. Conscript soldiers are commonly put under pressure to enlist as contract soldiers and would then be liable for service in Ukraine. There is likely to be some reluctance among Russian authorities to risk combat casualties among conscript soldiers, which would likely be unpopular. Casualties among volunteer soldiers are more tolerated by society.
Russia seeks to recruit around 400,000 contract service personnel in 2024. This is to sustain its forces in Ukraine, which have suffered huge losses, and support its announced plans to increase the size of the armed forces to 1.32 million this year and 1.5 million subsequently.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 5:53 am to No Colors
quote:
preferable to have 25 Patriot systems, with 6-8 batteries each
A battery has six launchers
Where did you get the 1,800 figure?
Posted on 4/10/24 at 6:06 am to No Colors
Launchers are easy, it's the radar and control modules which are the secret sauce.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 6:12 am to CitizenK
Posted on 4/10/24 at 6:13 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
A battery has six launchers
From what I've read a patriot "system" and "battery" are the same thing. They both refer to the basic firing unit. Each battery may have up to 8 launchers.
LINK
Posted on 4/10/24 at 6:21 am to cypher
To have a goal of 25 Patriot systems in the next 5-10 years is a reasonable goal. Of course, Ukraine can't get that many in the next 5-10 months. What you think about Zelensky's statement that they need 25 systems depends on the timeline you think that he meant.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 7:25 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
A battery has six launchers
Nope. Typical configuration is eight.
quote:
Where did you get the 1,800 figure?
Different branches of the US military have bought 1150 through 2020. So probably at least 1200 by now.
You can go to the Wikipedia page for Patriot and see each export license country (Germany has 11 full systems with 88 launchers and more on order etc)
That number gets you to 1800 roughly. And that's just current operational systems. Not ones shipped decades ago to foreign governments who mothballed them.
So 1800 is a conservative number.
So, explain your math. How did you get the idea that Zelensky was asking for 300 batteries representing 2400 launchers or something absurd like that?
You lap up Kremlin disinformation talking points like Sir Winston laps up other men's juices.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 7:51 am to GOP_Tiger
This seems to reflect their immediate request...
The European Union is not doing enough to protect Ukraine from Russia's attempts to destroy Ukrainian cities using missiles and guided bombs, so it must urgently provide Ukraine with more air defense equipment and ammunition.
This was stated by EU High Representative Josep Borrell during a speech at the European forum Nueva Economia Forum, Ukrinform reports.
"I spoke with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba some days ago and he is desperately asking for seven Patriot batteries to protect his country. It should be inconceivable that we were not able to provide them, given that the Western armies have about 100 batteries of Patriot. And still, we are not able to provide the seven they are asking desperately for," said the EU official.
Ukrinform
The European Union is not doing enough to protect Ukraine from Russia's attempts to destroy Ukrainian cities using missiles and guided bombs, so it must urgently provide Ukraine with more air defense equipment and ammunition.
This was stated by EU High Representative Josep Borrell during a speech at the European forum Nueva Economia Forum, Ukrinform reports.
"I spoke with the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba some days ago and he is desperately asking for seven Patriot batteries to protect his country. It should be inconceivable that we were not able to provide them, given that the Western armies have about 100 batteries of Patriot. And still, we are not able to provide the seven they are asking desperately for," said the EU official.
Ukrinform
This post was edited on 4/10/24 at 8:00 am
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:33 am to cypher
Orenburg, Russia, right now. This is a city of 550,000 that's been completely flooded
Orenburg is just downstream on the Ural River to Orsk, a city of 239,000 that flooded when a dam failed due to a lack of maintenance.
Reuters story
Posted on 4/10/24 at 8:43 am to No Colors
quote:
Different branches of the US military have bought 1150 through 2020. So probably at least 1200 by now.
Once again, the launchers are the easy part. It's the radar and controls which are the key to effectiveness.
Posted on 4/10/24 at 10:27 am to CitizenK
US Slams Strikes on Russia Oil Refineries as Risk to Oil Markets
Peter Martin and Roxana Tiron
Tue, April 9, 2024 at 11:09 AM CDT
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets and urged the country to focus on military targets instead.
“Those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services committee Tuesday. “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”
Bloomberg via Yahoo
Peter Martin and Roxana Tiron
Tue, April 9, 2024 at 11:09 AM CDT
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned that Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets and urged the country to focus on military targets instead.
“Those attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation,” Austin told the Senate Armed Services committee Tuesday. “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”
Bloomberg via Yahoo
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