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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:04 pm to RuLSU
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:04 pm to RuLSU
quote:
people wll back them forever
quote:
Putin has control, but he's not assured control forever.
Russia has been going through cycles of expansion, contracting, revolution since its inception. "Their people will back them forever"....they had three major revolutions and turnover in government in the 20th century alone. They're overdue now. If we know anything about Russian history it's that their people WILL NOT BACK THEM FOREVER
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 6:05 pm
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Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:14 pm to Pfft
quote:
And they did the same thing in WW2. I think they came out on top. They just DGAF.
They came out on top in WWII because of a lot of factors (Western support, etc.). Russia started off WWII as partners in crime with Germany, making a deal to split Poland and everything below it... then Hitler thought they were weak enough to instantly turn on them. Ironically, the allies ended up making the same exact deal with them to get them on the offensive rather than just defensive against Germany, and supplied them with quite a bit.
Still... that's fighting an invading force back, not being invaders. There is a psychological difference with the population. Also, your average Russian today has more of a sense of what is going on out in the wider world than their Soviet equivalents in 1942...
Again, the Soviet stalemate in Afghanistan lead to the demoralization and collapse of the Soviet Union... the "DGAF" thing obviously had its limits.
Gorbachev's "reform" was "instead of forcing people to accept our system at gunpoint, we should prove to them it is better," Which, of course, it wasn't... but he was a decent human being so he didn't have the military go massacre the population of Poland and other states who just decided they'd had enough. Putin think this was a great mistake. But he isn't in a position to force anybody to do anything at gunpoint other than sending troops to their deaths by the tens of thousands... until he has to grab them from Moscow and St. Petersberg...
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:18 pm to No Colors
quote:
There are only three ways this ends: 1) Russia goes home, 2) Russia conquers Ukraine 3) WW3
#1 - This isn’t going to happen. Ukraine lacks the combat ability to make Russia concede defeat and go home.
#2 - as things stand today, this is the inevitable eventual outcome, barring some sort of coup or rebellion in Russia, to this war.
#3 - let’s pray it doesn’t come to this as it will probably quickly result in a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:21 pm to Lee B
quote:
Also, your average Russian today has more of a sense of what is going on out in the wider world than their Soviet equivalents in 1942...
That's true of the residents of Moscow, St Petersburg and a handful of other prosperous urban areas. Not so much for the average Ivan in the hinterlands. Not so coincidentally, guess who the burden of this war is disproportionally falling on?
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:29 pm to Auburn1968
The Lancets have some level of autonomous targeting as well now.
Apparently FPV drone operators have also started parking them on elevated objects, like a destroyed vehicle, and they’ll sit and wait for enemy movement.
Apparently FPV drone operators have also started parking them on elevated objects, like a destroyed vehicle, and they’ll sit and wait for enemy movement.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:30 pm to Pfft
quote:
And when Putin leaves another one just like him will be waiting in line.
The western style leaders did not last very long. They went back to their old ways as soon as they could.
They don’t treat the people with any respect and it does not matter if their people fall in line. They put them in line.
The goal is to leave that next Russian leader, who will probably somehow be worse than Putin, as the head of a country that is so neutered it can't do any harm.
"Western-Style leaders?" Yeltsin? He lasted a while... but... the U.S.S.R. was infested with corruption at the top, and that just converted to "Capitalist cronyism" under the new privatized system, instantly creating the Oligarchs, and Yeltsin didn't do enough to fight that (which... I'm not sure how much he could've) and then when Putin came into power he turbocharged it.
The Tsars put people in line once upon a time, too... until they didn't.
Anybody who could leave Russia for the most part has left Russia... that has probably staved off uprisings, but now people are trapped there... we'll see.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:34 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
#1 - This isn’t going to happen. Ukraine lacks the combat ability to make Russia concede defeat and go home.
They lack the combat ability to defeat Russia. But they absolutely have the combat ability to bleed Russia white. This war can't go on forever. Even Russia, the Russian oligarchs, the Russian elite, the Russian military brass, the Russian War Mothers, the bankers, etc....their patience with this is not limitless. Putin has to win this thing. If he doesn't he will find himself in a tight spot.
quote:
#2 - as things stand today, this is the inevitable eventual outcome, barring some sort of coup or rebellion in Russia, to this war.
Russia had its shot, and failed. If it couldn't topple Ukraine in 2022, it has zero chance now. How will it take Kiev, Odessa, etc now? With essentially no more armor, and limited artillery, and limited air defense systems? It doesn't even have air superiority over the disputed part of Ukraine, much less the whole country.
And soon Ukraine will have more of everything, including F-16, ATACMS, etc. Russia might wear Ukraine and the West down politically. But they absolutely do not have the military capability to take over the country. That ship sailed a long time ago.
quote:
3 - let’s pray it doesn’t come to this as it will probably quickly result in a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia.
Agreed.
The most definitive way home is to convince the Russian political and economic elite that the war cannot be won. And let them take care of Putin. The new guy can blame the war on him and move on to all the real problems Russia has in spades. Like keeping China from taking over Siberia since there's literally no one home to keep them out.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:39 pm to SirWinston
quote:
daily devotion from the great Joel Osteen
Posted on 4/9/24 at 6:46 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
quote:
Also, your average Russian today has more of a sense of what is going on out in the wider world than their Soviet equivalents in 1942...
That's true of the residents of Moscow, St Petersburg and a handful of other prosperous urban areas. Not so much for the average Ivan in the hinterlands. Not so coincidentally, guess who the burden of this war is disproportionally falling on?
maybe...
"this is not our territory"-startling unrest- in russian republics as thousands flee mobilisation
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:05 pm to SirWinston
quote:
He didn't lift a finger to defend Trump AFTER Trump gave Ukraine Javelin missiles!
He could have at least said "I see what is happening in America and I do not agree with these political games. President Trump has been our strongest ally and he was well within his rights to inquire about this situation and call for an investigation."
How many times does this have to be posted?
quote:LINK
Zelensky said to the gathered reporters on Wednesday. “I’m sorry, but I don’t want to be involved to democratic, open elections of U.S.A. No, you heard that we had good phone call. It was normal, we spoke about many things. I think, and you read it, that nobody pushed me.”
I realize you are autistic and have a hard time dealing with stuff not aligning like you want it to, but you are just flat out wrong on Zelensky. Get over it.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:24 pm to No Colors
quote:
They lack the combat ability to defeat Russia. But they absolutely have the combat ability to bleed Russia white. This war can't go on forever. Even Russia, the Russian oligarchs, the Russian elite, the Russian military brass, the Russian War Mothers, the bankers, etc....their patience with this is not limitless. Putin has to win this thing. If he doesn't he will find himself in a tight spot.
I know you don’t want to admit this, but the cold hard unemotional truth is, while the war cannot go on forever, Russia possesses the ability to sustain it far longer than Ukraine does. And in a war of attention, which is exact what this war has been for almost two years, the side that has the manpower and industrial capability to feed the meat grinder longer, will win. It’s only a matter of time.
quote:
Russia had its shot, and failed. If it couldn't topple Ukraine in 2022, it has zero chance now. How will it take Kiev, Odessa, etc now? With essentially no more armor, and limited artillery, and limited air defense systems? It doesn't even have air superiority over the disputed part of Ukraine, much less the whole country.
What you’re not understanding is Ukraine is consuming arms, ammunition, and men at a rate it cannot sustain. Russia, on the other hand, can sustain its losses.
quote:
And soon Ukraine will have more of everything, including F-16, ATACMS, etc. Russia might wear Ukraine and the West down politically.
The help coming to Ukraine is a drop in the bucket of what would be required for them to win the war, or even sustain the war long term. A handful of of old F-16s will no more turn the tide in 2024 than a handful of old Leopard tanks made in 2023.
Look at the monthly requirements of 155mm artillery rounds for Ukraine. Ukrainian officials stated publicly in March 2023 that it needs 20,000 artillery shells per day. That’s 620,000 per month. In 2023 we were able to supply 155mm ammo at a rate to sustain consumption of 9,000 per day and that fell to 2,000 per day. In other words, we’re depleting our stockpile of 155mm ammo and still only meeting 1/10th of their stated requirements. Right now the US produces 28,000 155mm rounds PER MONTH. The hope is to ramp that up to 70,000 to 80,000 rounds, again per month by the end of 2024. Even if we send every single 155mm round we produce to Ukraine, it will fall woefully short of their needs.
quote:
But they absolutely do not have the military capability to take over the country. That ship sailed a long time ago.
You have to think of this war in terms like WWI. Yes, today Russia does not appear to be capable of landing one massive knock out blow to win the war. But that’s not even what they’re trying to do. They’re attritting Ukraine, wearing them down with the daily meat grinder of positional warfare. They’re doing this because they’ve done the math and know that, barring an individual mobilization in the West on a level not seen in 80 years, Ukraine can continue to sustain losses like it’s taking for only so long before, much like Germany did in 1918, it reached a point of moral and physical collapse.
The only way the math of this war changes is if the West undergoes a massive and rapid industrial expansion to provide Ukraine arms at a level to allow it to sustain the fight while absorbing losses on a scale a war of this nature requires. The focus should be on defense, specifically defense in depth akin to the Hindenburg Line of WWI. If Ukraine receives the massive amount of of material support from the West to allow it to hold the line against Russia and inflict losses on a level that makes Russia more amenable to terms, then there is hope. But, as things stand today, no Western Powers has shown the slightest movement in this direction. Instead they send dribs and drabs, just enough to make the layperson think their country is “helping”. Meanwhile, Ukraine, while still fighting with everything it can, is slowly bleeding to death.
I’m sorry, but that’s the unbiased cold, hard truth.
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:25 pm to Lee B
Ukraine was NOT even interested in joining NATO pre 2022. It wanted to join the EU. But nutters gotta nut over fake news.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:28 pm to SirWinston
quote:“I, Nephi, having been born of goodly parents….”
Didn’t know you were interested.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:41 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
Now, Ukraine is begging for artillery shells on a level the West has no hope to meet even if they wanted to.
Sorry Darth but you are wrong. I know that you are an arrogant old man with a hemorrhoid problem and it is impossible for old men to admit when they are wrong, but you are wrong.
quote:LINK
By the end of this year, Europe will be able to manufacture around 1.4 million 155mm rounds a year, Borrell added.
Once Congress approves funds for Ukraine, the U.S. will be able to manufacture 1.2 million 155mm rounds by October 2025.
Assuming a maximum production rate, the U.S. and EU would manufacture 2.6 million 155mm rounds per year by 2025. Russian production capacity for 152mm rounds, the Soviet equivalent to 155mm, is estimated to grow to 1.3 million by the end of 2024.
That is not counting shell production in Japan, Australia, Chile, Brazil, Egypt, Turkey, or South Korea. It is also not counting the 1.2 million 152mm and 155mm shells the Czech Republic or the additional 800,000 shells Estonia has located for Ukraine. Even if the USA and EU only reach half their production targets they will still be equal to Russian production. Unless you are naive enough to believe the claims that Russia is producing 3 million shells per year. Which it obviously isn’t since it’s importing shells from Iran and North Korea.
quote:
Anyone with even a passing knowledge of military matters can see where this war is going. Each passing day means worse terms that Ukraine can expect. The best help the West, especially the US, can offer Ukraine at this point is serious diplomatic efforts at securing the best cease fire they can get. The longer they wait, the worse Ukraine’s position will be.
For those who find what I’ve said disagreeable, save your worthless down vote and instead speak your mind on what I’ve said you think is wrong.
Russia is wanting Zeleniski to resign and for Ukraine to hold new elections under Russian guidance, give up all claims to land under Russian control as well the Kharkiv and possibly Odessa oblasts. WTF makes you think Ukraine can get a decent peace deal? How can any deal in the future be worse than that? Pull your head out of your wrinkled old arrogant arse, and realize that you are more likely to get an erection at a cross dressing competition without using Viagra or Cialis than Ukraine is to get a decent peace deal. SirWinston is more likely to marry a biological female than Ukraine is to get a decent peace deal. If what is rumored to be is the best they can get why not atleast make Russia spend the blood and treasure to take Kharkiv and/or Odessa?
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 8:16 pm
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:43 pm to WeeWee
quote:
Pull your head out of your wrinkled old arrogant arse, and realize that you are more likely to get an erection without Viagra or Cialis than Ukraine is to get a decent peace deal.
There's some imagery I can't unsee.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:47 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Ukraine was NOT even interested in joining NATO pre 2022. It wanted to join the EU. But nutters gotta nut over fake news.
Who are you calling a "nutter?" I'm not saying Putin's excuse of stopping NATO expansion into Ukraine "to defend Russia" or any of that crap is true (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined NATO, and they are just as close)... or that NATO or Ukraine "caused" his invasion...
But:
Ukraine first publicly expressed interest in joining NATO in 2002, said Pifer, who was the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000.
In 2006, under former President Viktor Yushchenko, Ukraine became more serious about NATO membership, Pifer said. The country was angling to receive a membership action plan, or MAP, until Yushchenko appointed Russian-friendly Viktor Yanukovych as prime minister, and that put the idea to rest. A MAP sets aspiring NATO members on track to potentially join the alliance by providing them with political and technical advice to help them prepare for future membership.
"This process effectively opens the door to membership of the alliance," said John Lough, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House, a London-based think tank, who served from 1995 to 1998 as NATO’s first representative based in Moscow.
Ukraine's History of trying to join NATO
While Putin would love to invade and "reclaim" Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to "protect Russian speakers" or whatever, he can't, now... and he wasn't in a position to do it before they joined NATO.
So, it was certainly a factor in his actions in Ukraine from the time he invaded Crimea and stirred up trouble in the Donbas, but not to "defend Russia's security from NATO aggression (it is a defense pact)" but rather to make sure he could invade Ukraine without having NATO outright defend it... he was attacking pre-emptively to scuttle any chance of that...
This post was edited on 4/9/24 at 8:12 pm
Posted on 4/9/24 at 7:59 pm to Darth_Vader
quote:
I know you don’t want to admit this, but the cold hard unemotional truth is, while the war cannot go on forever, Russia possesses the ability to sustain it far longer than Ukraine does. And in a war of attention, which is exact what this war has been for almost two years, the side that has the manpower and industrial capability to feed the meat grinder longer, will win. It’s only a matter of time.
Ukraine's economy is propped by the USA, Canada, UK, and the EU. Russia's economy is propped up oil and gas sales to China and India and some others at less than market prices. Ukraine has has knocked out 15% of Russia's refinery capacity and the dam break in Orsk has shutdown another refinery. On top of that India and Turkey have stopped buying Russian oil. Russia's economy and its industrial base is much weaker than you think and the Russian ruble is only a Ukrainian spetnaz hit on the Power of Siberia pipeline to China from becoming worth less than a Confederate dollar in May of 1865.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:03 pm to WeeWee
And we are all only a gnat’s arse from nuclear war and if the shite goes sour.
Posted on 4/9/24 at 8:08 pm to SirWinston
Last time I saw a picture of this table it was covered with pills and weed.
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