re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) reportedly directed all its clergy to change their liturgy to include pro-war prayers in support of Russia’s war of conquest against Ukraine and is likely threatening to defrock ROC MP clergy who do not support the war.

The ROC MP leadership has intensified internal scrutiny against ROC MP clergy and has reportedly defrocked several clergy members who refused to promote Kremlin-introduced prayers supporting Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia conducted another series of missile and drone strikes largely targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of March 30 to 31 as delays in US security assistance continue to degrade Ukraine’s air defense umbrella and enable Russia to significantly damage Ukraine’s energy grid.

Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023.

French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced on March 31 that France will provide an unspecified number of Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles and “hundreds” of armored vehicles and other equipment to Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on March 31 the scheduled decree authorizing Russia’s semi-annual spring military conscription, which will conscript 150,000 Russians between April 1 and July 15.

The Russian military command reportedly appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Alexander Lapin as commander of the newly formed Leningrad Military District (LMD).

The Kremlin continues efforts to enforce Russian federal laws in post-Soviet countries where Russia has no legal jurisdiction.

Russian authorities conducted a counterterrorism operation and detained suspected terrorists in the Republic of Dagestan on March 31.

Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and southwest of Donetsk City on March 31.

The Russian government continues to fail to properly compensate volunteer and irregular forces fighting in Ukraine, despite recently passing new legislation that simplifies the access to veteran statuses for these servicemen and their families.

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see fewer and fewer options open to Ukraine and its Western supporters as more time drags on

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I just don't see a middle ground here. No rational person thinks Ukraine can just give up 20% of its territory and everyone will just put down their weapons and go on with their lives. That just absolutely won't happen. Both sides will still have over 1 million men in arms facing each other across a 1000 mile front. Forever.

No one thinks that's a plausible long term solution. There are really only three ways out of this

Putin crushes Ukraine and takes a pause to digest it. And the world turns the other cheek while more pressing events (Taiwan) start getting the attention. All the while Russia starts planning its next move.


Or Russia runs out of steam and the situation in Moscow becomes unstable. Putin is replaced by someone who declares victory and brings his army home.

Or this thing escalates and gets out of hand.

If there's a fourth legitimate scenario I've never heard it discussed

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The poliboard is gonna take this really hard

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Nah, I knew when Miss Lindsey said "to the last Ukrainian", she meant it.

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No rational person thinks Ukraine can just give up 20% of its territory

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That's a dream scenario for Ukraine at this point.

Just check the ISW updates or just get your info straight from the Ukucks Colt, they don’t even need those guys. Ukraine has lost like 2 soldiers during the entire war and Russia has lost probably a million, and Putin is gay, retarded, and has brain and arse cancer and will probably croak any day now.

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I would love to hear a legitimate argument as to why anyone thinks the next leader of Russia will definitely be any better for the world than Putin.

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I would like to know why you just assumed Putin?

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... that would require the West, specifically the US, to seriously ramp up oil production and make it clear the world we are in the oil business for the long term. Instead we’re doing the opposite.

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??????????

Seriously ramp it up to ludicrous speed?

MARCH 11, 2024

United States produces more crude oil than any country, ever

The hope is whoever succeeds Putin will be too busy dodging enemies at home to go looking for trouble abroad.

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Johnson and Turner and their manager Trump are all lying cowards and have brought deep shame onto America.

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Zelenskyy and Biden / Obama / Nuland were in cahoots from the beginning and the little fraud left Trump twisting in the wind during that hatchet job impeachment. Zero chance Trump would or should lift a finger to help that little POS.

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 01 April 2024

Sanctions likely continue to disrupt key inputs for Russia's defence industry. Russia's isolation limits the number of countries it can directly trade with, highly likely increasing the time and cost to acquire items it could once purchase freely. Research from the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies suggests third party countries are charging price premiums of over 60 per cent for exports of certain sanctioned goods to Russia.

While Russia has increased production of key munitions most heavily used in Ukraine, such as artillery shells, the impact of sanctions is highly likely greatest on Russia's more advanced and complex weapon systems. These systems in production and development almost certainly have an increased reliance on foreign components and technology.

Sanctions likely continue to disrupt both supply and demand for Russian arms exports, as well as significantly complicating payment mechanisms to Russia. This has almost certainly contributed to a significant decline in Russia's arms exports and increased delivery delays, including to some of its most important remaining arms customers. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Russia's share of the global arms trade has fallen to 11 per cent in the period 2019 to 2023, compared to 21 per cent in the period 2014 to 2018.