- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/16/23 at 6:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
Posted on 12/16/23 at 6:33 pm to GOP_Tiger
Financial Times
G7 moves closer to seizing Russian assets for Ukraine
It really seems pretty simple when you look at it this way:
- The Estonian MoD says that Ukraine's allies need to come up with $131 billion to enable Ukrainian victory.
- There is more than twice that amount available in frozen Russian assets that could be seized and used for that purpose.
G7 moves closer to seizing Russian assets for Ukraine
quote:
Western nations are actively exploring ways to seize Russian central bank assets to fund Ukraine as political disputes in the US and Europe threaten its flow of financial support.
G7 officials have intensified talks in recent weeks on spending some of the roughly $300bn in immobilised Russian sovereign assets, a radical step that would open a new chapter in the west’s financial warfare against Moscow.
The push comes as two crucial financial aid packages for Ukraine worth more than $100bn faltered this week, as Republicans in the US Congress and Viktor Orbán of EU member Hungary took a stand against funding Kyiv.
Seizing Russian assets could provide an alternative stream of funding for Kyiv, especially given the expected huge costs of postwar reconstruction.
But until now G7 governments have mostly balked at such a move
quote:
Although Washington has never publicly backed confiscation, the US has privately taken a more assertive stance in recent weeks, arguing in G7 committees that there is a route to seizing the assets “consistent with international law”.
“G7 members and other specially affected states could seize Russian sovereign assets as a countermeasure to induce Russia to end its aggression,” said a US government discussion paper, seen by the Financial Times, which was circulated in G7 committees. The US Treasury declined to comment.
A US official said Washington was engaged in active conversations on the use of Russian sovereign assets and believed there was a short timeline to make a decision. They suggested it could be discussed at a possible G7 leaders’ meeting to coincide with the second anniversary in February of Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine.
quote:
Lord David Cameron, the UK foreign secretary, has expressed confidence there is “a legal route” to confiscate the assets and has suggested the UK might act with the US if other G7 allies cannot be convinced.
“Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures,” he told a UK parliamentary committee on Thursday, adding he was “pushing hard” for the proposal within the G7.
quote:
The goal over the coming weeks would be to work through all the critical issues so the G7 could move together.
quote:
European countries, particularly Germany, France and Belgium, have been reluctant to make such a move, citing legal concerns such as the protections that sovereign assets enjoy under international law. The bulk of the €300bn of Russia’s state assets are held in Europe.
Even so, one western official said there were “definitely live conversations” within the G7 and a “growing consensus” in favour of using Russian sovereign assets for Ukraine.
“It’s going back to the question of: is it just up to western citizens and treasuries to pay for the war, or should the Kremlin also be on the hook?”
It really seems pretty simple when you look at it this way:
- The Estonian MoD says that Ukraine's allies need to come up with $131 billion to enable Ukrainian victory.
- There is more than twice that amount available in frozen Russian assets that could be seized and used for that purpose.
1
Posted on 12/16/23 at 6:36 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
There is more than twice that amount available in frozen Russian assets that could be seized and used for that purpose.
Sounds like a simple plan. I like it.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 6:36 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
No citations. No links.
No, just math. If there are 1 million abortions in the US (according to the link you posted) and the number of women of child-bearing age is 65 million, the rate per 1000 is around 15. If there are 500k abortions in Russia with around 32 million women of child-bearing age, the rate is also around 15.
quote:
So let's cut to the chase ""bro"", which country's abortion rate is higher? Russia or the US?
Given the low quality of the inputs (all from links you posted), the rates are virtually the same. With higher-quality, more rigorous sources, we can do more rigorous calculations, but as it stands, I’m skeptical of the numbers posted on the wiki link completely.
And again, in American English, punctuation goes inside the quotation marks, as in “bro.”
Posted on 12/16/23 at 8:57 pm to crazy4lsu
ISW Update
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast amid reported difficult conditions in the area as part of an apparent effort to set conditions for future Ukrainian operations and the resettlement of west (right) bank Kherson Oblast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s supporters formally nominated him as an independent candidate for the 2024 presidential elections on December 16, further solidifying Putin’s image as a figure above the Russian political system.
Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitri Polyanskiy more clearly defined recent statements from high-ranking Russian officials that align with ISW’s long-standing assessment that Russia is unwilling to negotiate with Ukraine in good faith.
Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes across Ukraine overnight on December 15 to 16.
The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 15 that the G7 may consider using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine.
Russian actors continue information operations aimed at discrediting and dividing Ukraine’s military and political leadership, specifically Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
A Russian “Storm-Z” assault unit instructor implied that Russian President Vladimir Putin lied about the unregulated status of private military companies (PMCs) during his “Direct Line” forum on December 14 given the state’s significant administrative control over PMCs and other irregular formations.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16 and advanced in some areas.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russia will have at least ten Project 22350 Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates in an unspecified time period.
Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko and the Ukrainian Telegram channel Mariupol Resistance stated on December 16 that Ukrainian partisans recently blew up the car of the commander of an unspecified Russian unit from the North Caucasus in occupied Mariupol.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 8:59 pm to omegaman66
quote:
Complete surrender was never ever one of his demands.
quote:
Polyanskiy stated on December 16 that Ukraine missed its chance to negotiate a “favorable” settlement and that any possible "deal" between Russia and Ukraine would have to entail Ukrainian “capitulation.”
Posted on 12/17/23 at 12:19 am to GOP_Tiger
I’ll be highly shocked if there are any F-16s in Ukraine by the end of the year. It just hasn’t been long enough to properly train their pilots on a completely different animal of an aircraft than their Mig-29s. Most of their pilots were still in English language classes and basic elements of the F-16 back in September. I would target late March or early April for the first Ukrainian pilots to be ready and those are the cream of the crop who already had a strong grip on the English language. More than all that though, the pilots can be ready now but if their ground crew is still not ready to take delivery of those aircraft then they are just targets on the ground for Russia. I’m not sure what Ukraine has done to make some of their air bases compatible with the F-16 as far as equipment, runway condition and fortified hangars to protect them on the ground. Honestly the ground crews have more they have to master in a short time than the pilots do.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 12:45 am to StormyMcMan
Demands have increased over time, and as the balance of power shifted to the Russians. The Russian governor of Kherson recently spoke about returning to the right bank “soon” and both Lavrov and Putin have spoken about Odessa recently. Putin talked about it in his call in show.
The longer this lasts, the worse the final settlement will be for Kiev.
The longer this lasts, the worse the final settlement will be for Kiev.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 4:50 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:The question not being asked loudly enough in DC, in the press, and certainly not here is "What is the endpoint?"
The longer this lasts, the worse the final settlement will be for Kiev.
The war was absolutely avoidable, but it wasn't avoided. As with the runup to most wars, the various factions in this effort all imagined they'd fare better than they actually did. The uniform miscalculation was tragic.
But it is what it is.
Now, without viable airpower at play on either side, we have a static WWI-style 500mi frontlines killing field. The fronts are not changing, and despite all the fairydust stories about the next great offensive, the fronts are not going to change. Bodies are piling up. It is horrible!
There has to be a negotiated settlement. It should have occurred in April 2022, now 1 1/2 yrs and 10's of thousands of lives later, talks will be even more challenging. All sides will be more recalcitrant.
But there must be an endpoint, and as you point out, the longer this travesty persists, the less fair for Ukraine that endpoint is likely to be.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 7:19 am to NC_Tigah
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 December 2023
On 11 December 2023, the Russian Central Election Commission announced that voting in the March 2024 presidential election would extend to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. This follows their inclusion in the September 2023 Russian regional elections.
As with the regional elections, it is almost certain that presidential election voting in the Russian-controlled regions will be neither free nor fair. The Russian authorities almost certainly see achieving the 'correct' results in these regions as a priority because they want to give the perception of legitimacy to Russia's invasion.
The Russian administration will almost certainly utilise methods including substantive electoral fraud and voter intimidation to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin wins in the regions by a substantial margin.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 17 December 2023
On 11 December 2023, the Russian Central Election Commission announced that voting in the March 2024 presidential election would extend to the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine. This follows their inclusion in the September 2023 Russian regional elections.
As with the regional elections, it is almost certain that presidential election voting in the Russian-controlled regions will be neither free nor fair. The Russian authorities almost certainly see achieving the 'correct' results in these regions as a priority because they want to give the perception of legitimacy to Russia's invasion.
The Russian administration will almost certainly utilise methods including substantive electoral fraud and voter intimidation to ensure Russian President Vladimir Putin wins in the regions by a substantial margin.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 7:20 am to NC_Tigah
quote:thanks putin
The war was absolutely avoidable, but it wasn't avoided.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 7:28 am to cypher
Sad news this morning: Anna Linnikova, Miss Russia 2022 and the girlfriend of Putin mouthpiece Jackson Hinkle, has broken up with Hinkle and returned to Russia.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 7:52 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
The Russian governor of Kherson recently spoke about returning to the right bank “soon” and both Lavrov and Putin have spoken about Odessa recently. Putin talked about it in his call in show.
Oh wow, Putin talked about Odessa! Stop the presses!
quote:
The longer this lasts, the worse the final settlement will be for Kiev.
Given your win rate, we can safely bet on the opposite happening. But hope springs eternal, I guess.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 8:20 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Demands have increased over time, and as the balance of power shifted to the Russians.
quote:
Moscow has no interest in any proposed deal to end the war in Ukraine, a Kremlin spokesperson told the New York Times in an interview published Sunday.
August 6, 2023
quote:
On the question of starting peace talks, he said, "We did not reject them... In order for this process to begin, there needs to be agreement on both sides."
July 29, 2023 as he rejected peace talks with Africa
quote:
The Kremlin on Monday threw cold water on China's peace plan for the Ukraine war, suggesting now is not the time to pursue such a proposal.
Feb 27, 2023
quote:
Russia has rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s “peace formula” as a basis for negotiations and believes Kyiv is still not ready for real peace talks, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told state-run RIA news agency.
Dec 29, 2022
quote:
Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.
But, despite earlier backing the negotiations, Putin made it clear when presented with Kozak's deal that the concessions negotiated by his aide did not go far enough and that he had expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory, the sources said. The upshot: the deal was dropped.
Sept 14 2022
quote:
President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end, using his first public comments on the conflict in more than a week to vow his troops would win and to goad the West for failing to bring Moscow to heel.
Addressing the war in public for the first time since Russian forces retreated from northern Ukraine after they were halted at the gates of Kyiv, Putin promised that Russia would achieve all of its "noble" aims in Ukraine.
In the strongest signal to date that the war will grind on for longer, Putin said Kyiv had derailed peace talks by staging what he said were fake claims of Russian war crimes and by demanding security guarantees to cover the whole of Ukraine.
April 12 2022
quote:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Thursday that Ukraine had presented Moscow with a draft peace deal containing "unacceptable" elements at variance with a previous agreement, comments that Kyiv dismissed as "pure propaganda".
The Kremlin has said talks with Ukraine are not progressing as rapidly as it would like, and has accused the West of trying to derail negotiations by raising war crimes allegations against Russian troops in Ukraine, which Moscow denies.
Lavrov said Russia was now keen to continue with the talks and secure its own demands.
"Despite all the provocations, the Russian delegation will continue with the negotiation process, pressing for our own draft agreement that clearly and fully outlines our initial and key positions and requirements," he said.
April 7 2022
The demands have pretty much been consistently give Ukrainian territory to Russia and the demilitarization of Ukraine so Russia can make it a puppet state
ETA: but sure Ukraine and the west are the only ones tanking peace plans
ETA2: fwiw the April links are the ones that people say Borris Johnson takes, despite Putin and Lavrov saying the peace talks reached a dead end because of Bucha and security guarantees
This post was edited on 12/17/23 at 8:24 am
Posted on 12/17/23 at 9:13 am to StormyMcMan
quote:Kind of, but generally Russian demands have escalated over time.
The demands have pretty much been consistently
Prior to April 7 2022, the two sides were closing on a settlement. The allusion to setbacks in your Apr 7 piece, related to injected issues of warcrimes (So anathema to the Russian side, that it wouldn't even acknowledge the issue being raised), and Ukrainian reintroduction of Crimea in the dialogue. That is how negotiations go though. Sometimes there is progress. Sometimes there are setbacks. Nonetheless, there was no talk of calling talks off ... until Boris Johnson's visit 2 days later. After that, they were done.
quote:
"The Russian side…was actually ready for the Zelenskyy-Putin meeting.
But two things happened, after which a member of the Ukrainian delegation, Mykhailo Podoliak, had to openly admit that it was "not the time" for the meeting of the presidents.
The first thing was the revelation of the atrocities, rapes, murders, massacres, looting, indiscriminate bombings and hundreds and thousands of other war crimes committed by Russian troops in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories…
The second "obstacle" to agreements with the Russians arrived in Kyiv on 9 April."
Details: According Ukrainska Pravda sources close to Zelenskyy, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Boris Johnson, who appeared in the capital almost without warning, brought two simple messages.
The first is that Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with.
And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not.
Johnson’s position was that the collective West, which back in February had suggested Zelenskyy should surrender and flee, now felt that Putin was not really as powerful as they had previously imagined, and that here was a chance to "press him."
Three days after Johnson left for Britain, Putin went public and said talks with Ukraine "had turned into a dead end".
Three days later, Roman Abramovich arrived in Kyiv again, and President Zelenskyy officially stated that there could be two security agreements with Russia: one would concern Ukraine's coexistence with Russia, the other - only security guarantees, because not everyone "sees themselves at the same table with the Russian Federation ".
After that, according to Ukrainska Pravda sources, the bilateral negotiation process was paused.
Pravda.com.ua
Posted on 12/17/23 at 9:18 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
There has to be a negotiated settlement. It should have occurred in April 2022, now 1 1/2 yrs and 10's of thousands of lives later, talks will be even more challenging. All sides will be more recalcitrant.
Wrong
Negotiations involving Russia began way before then. In 2014 both sides made agreements to stop fighting in Donbas. The agreements fell apart.
Russia never lived up to those agreement; nor did they live up to the Budapest accords years before that.
There were more negotiations immediately before the massive invasion. They fell apart too as Russia by then had their minds made. They were going to go all in one big operation.
The notion that a lasting peace could be brought to Ukraine is a complete fairy tale. The truth is Russia has violated every agreement that they ever made regarding Ukraine; furthermore, they openly state their goal of taking over large parts of Ukraine and dominating the rest through proxies.
ETA: fixed blatant typo
This post was edited on 12/17/23 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 12/17/23 at 9:21 am to doubleb
Is the ground not suitable for tunnelling in the Northern and central areas of the country?
Posted on 12/17/23 at 9:35 am to doubleb
quote:No. Sorry. It isn't.
Wrong
quote:The negotiations which were approaching a settlement in April? Of course they began before they ended.
Negotiations involving Russia began way before then
The Ukrainian side offered dialogue from the outset. Talks commenced in earnest in March when Ukraine kicked Russia's arse in the Kyiv surrounds.
If you're referring to negotiations predating the war e.g., Minsk? We know now those were non-good-faith accords by the west, designed to buy Ukraine time for bolstering its military. Right? That knowledge calls to question antithetical claims.
Same with dialogue in the runup to war, when we were discussing Ukraine-to-NATO with Zelenskyy, then leaking details of those to Moscow via Beijing. If anything, as Russian troops amassed along the border, our efforts were diplomatically provocative.
Are the Russians white-hats in all this?
Of course not!
They're as untrustworthy as Hunter Biden as a Hooker&Blow Convention.
But the fact our hands are dirty as hell along with them, that is on us.
We should be better.
This post was edited on 12/17/23 at 10:09 am
Posted on 12/17/23 at 10:24 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The negotiations which were approaching a settlement in April? Of
Nah
quote:
you're referring to negotiations predating the war e.g., Minsk? We know now those were non-good-faith accords by the west, designed to buy Ukraine time for bolstering its military. Right? That knowledge calls to question antithetical claims.
Amazing. And the negotiations that showed the Russians were not acting in good-faith were immediately pre-war, as in with Macron, and those lack of good-faith discussions led directly to the Western intercession in April.
quote:
But the fact our hands are dirty as hell along with them, that is on us.
This sort of stuff shows why you shouldn't speak about international relations. The world is cutthroat. You speak against both our own attempts to participate in this arena and attempts to build a liberal world order so the world is conceivably less cutthroat. Those are the calculations. Stop being so damn naive.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 10:35 am to crazy4lsu
quote:If you understood it, I'd happily engage. You don't, so I won't.
This sort of stuff shows why you shouldn't speak about international relations.
Pump your simpleton "America is Saintly, Angelic & Pure" Sunshine up someone else's arse.
Posted on 12/17/23 at 10:51 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
The demands have pretty much been consistently give Ukrainian territory to Russia and the demilitarization of Ukraine so Russia can make it a puppet state
Their territorial demands have increased over time. Their initial position was Donetsk, Luhansk, and Crimea.
Page 3397 of 5046
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News