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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 12/16/23 at 1:52 pm to Obtuse1
Posted on 12/16/23 at 1:52 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
Since identifying their shrinking population they have tightened down on legal abortions but the population statistics indicate they have either gotten a lot better at the use of contraception or the official abortion numbers might not be indicative of the actual numbers. The reported numbers show roughly a 50% drop in the last ten years where before they were the leader in per capita abortions for a long time.
Their population pyramid seems to portend a massive collapse in total population numbers.
0
Posted on 12/16/23 at 2:03 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:psssst, check out the table images I posted. Notice the Russian citation links are purple, instead of blue? I'll bet you can guess what that means.
Hey bud, when you cite Wikipedia, it might be a better idea to find out the source of the citation.
quote:
E.g.,
125. "Number of abortions in Russia 2020". Statista. Retrieved 2022-10-27.
126. "Interfax-Religion: The number of abortions has decreased in Russia over the year - Ministry of Health" www.interfax-religion.ru. Retrieved 2022-10-27.
This post was edited on 12/16/23 at 2:04 pm
Posted on 12/16/23 at 2:09 pm to NC_Tigah
Man, I went to those links. Did you not read my post? Firstly, Statista is a statistics aggregation website. It doesn't list where it got the 500k number. The interfax link just goes to the homepage for me. And again, I cannot reproduce the rate from the totals offered unless there are only 38 million women of child-bearing age, which is an unbelievably low number.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 2:34 pm to crazy4lsu
Posted on 12/16/23 at 2:37 pm to GOP_Tiger
Just looking at things from a strategic point of view I hope Ukraine is taking the time to do as the Russians did and dig trenches covered by other trenches with minefields in front everywhere. Offensive action needs to be completely taken out of the question for the foreseeable future. It’s clear Putin is gearing up to send meat wave after meat wave at Ukrainian lines. Ukraine needs to let them and even invite them to do this. I would spend the next year in full defense behind solid defenses while they build up strength and Russia continues to expend men and armor. This is not WW2 and Putin is not Stalin and there’s no natural enemy like Hitler besides Putin himself. Eventually the Russian people will start to get fed up if they send enough bodies home, especially those from Moscow and St. Petersburg. Ukraine can’t afford the huge losses it takes to attack and take ground in this war but they are amazing defenders who fight like hell. This war is going to end at the negotiating table and Ukraine is going to lose ground in the Donbas and Crimea but the Donbas has been leveled anyway so rebuilding industry should just happen in central and western Ukraine while they still hold Odessa as it’s major port. Easier said then done but Ukraine doesn’t have much of a choice from where i’m sitting.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 3:05 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:Yes. You didn't realize I'd accessed those links, and seemed perplexed by a precept of 38M Russian women within childbearing range. Russia is making a concerted effort to increase its population, hence the all-out push to drop abortion rates.
Did you not read my post?
Posted on 12/16/23 at 3:23 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
You didn't realize I'd accessed those links
Those links do not provide support for the data posted on the Wiki.
quote:
seemed perplexed by a precept of 38M Russian women within childbearing range
Do you understand how to calculate per capita rates?
Posted on 12/16/23 at 3:47 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:Oh gosh. I didn't realize you needed my help there. Here are some simple links that might help you. Do you need me to lend you some number sticks as well?
Do you understand how to calculate per capita rates?
Posted on 12/16/23 at 3:53 pm to NC_Tigah
Again, the numbers provided do not make any sense. Unless you believe that a country of 150 million has less than 40 million women who can bear children.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 4:06 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:Believe?
Again, the numbers provided do not make any sense. Unless you believe that a country of 150 million has less than 40 million women who can bear children.
E.g., In the United States in 2021, the population of women ages 15-44 was 65,080,433. LINK
Our US Government claims Russia will be at ~32M Women of Reproductive Age (15-49 Years) in 2025. LINK
This post was edited on 12/16/23 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 12/16/23 at 4:21 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
I cannot reproduce the rate from the totals offered unless there are only 38 million women of child-bearing age, which is an unbelievably low number.
Wild arse guess due percentage of 17.3% from a demographics pyramid chart (Rostat has been awful when even available for a decade) approx 25 million women of 20-40 years of age. Considering that non Slav ethnic groups are less likely to have abortions, the Russian Slavic ethnic group is dying off fast,
This post was edited on 12/16/23 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 12/16/23 at 4:23 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Our US Government claims Russia will be at ~32M Women of Reproductive Age (15-49 Years) in 2025
Which doesn't support the numbers cited in the Wiki link. If that is true, and there were only 500k abortions, the rate is going to be higher, you realize that? Which means the rate is around 16 according to my eyeball math.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 4:36 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:You need to read more and shittalk less in these exchanges. You realize that?
you realize that?
The quoted abortion stats of 506K are not from 2025. IIRC, they are from 2019? There are a litany of others citing numbers in the ~400K/yr range. None of which remotely approach our own rate.
If you'd read the material I was courteous enough to spoonfeed you, you'd know the Russian Fem population 15-49 is on steady decline from 40M to the predicted 2025 32M.
You previously extrapolated/guessed/yammered such numbers were impossibly low. At least we've jumped that hurdle.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 4:40 pm to NC_Tigah
You guys need to go to Sonic. None of this has anything to do with the war.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 4:41 pm to NC_Tigah
No, read the Statista link. It says that the number is 500k in 2022. Secondly, the contention is that the number of child-bearing women is going to decrease from 40 mil to 32 mil? A full 20% decline in 3 years?
Yes, those are extremely low numbers. And you are supporting lower numbers and also suggesting a 20% decline. That's insane.
quote:
You previously extrapolated/guessed/yammered such numbers were impossibly low. At least we've jumped that hurdle
Yes, those are extremely low numbers. And you are supporting lower numbers and also suggesting a 20% decline. That's insane.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 5:05 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:Brilliant! I feel like the guy holding up cue cards for Stevie Wonder. I hate assumptions, but I'm assuming you are literate, and just didn't read the material. Is my assumption about literacy an overpresumption?
the contention is that the number of child-bearing women is going to decrease from 40 mil to 32 mil? A full 20% decline in 3 years?
Posted on 12/16/23 at 5:25 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
you'd read the material I was courteous enough to spoonfeed you, you'd know the Russian Fem population 15-49 is on steady decline from 40M to the predicted 2025 32M.
Since you can't seem to follow the argument. The number and rate of abortions that were cited were listed from 2022 (literally from Statista, in the little omnibox below the graph as well as the fricking graph itself), which means that the female population has to be 38 mil. The predicted population in 2025, which is one year from now, is 32 million. That means that there is a decline of between 6 million (my numbers) and 8 million (your numbers) in the three years between 2022 and 2025.
This suggests that between 16-20% of that child-bearing population will phase out of child-bearing, and at no point do you seem to be questioning the veracity of the original numbers? The Wiki link is not a good source bro because the sources it uses are not rigorous. Sorry you posted it and thought it was. From that link, given the number of child-bearing women in the US, the rate for the US is also incorrect.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 5:56 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:No citations. No links. No stated basis whatsoever for your opinions. Got it. So let's cut to the chase ""bro"", which country's abortion rate is higher? Russia or the US?
the number of child-bearing women in the US, the rate for the US is also incorrect.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 6:23 pm to doubleb
How can Ukraine's allies enable Ukraine to win the war? Well, the Estonian MoD has just put out a 24-page plan. It's detailed and crunches a lot of numbers. I recommend that you download and read it.
PDF
Some observations:
1) Like most others, the Estonian MoD assesses that Ukraine cannot achieve victory in 2024. The reason for this is that Ukraine's allies gave what they could from their artillery ammunition stockpiles to enable the Ukrainian offensive this year, and the US and EU nations are ramping up production, but they simply won't produce enough shells for Ukraine until the end of 2024. This plan for victory is to win in 2025.
2) The stakes are extremely high:
3) If Ukraine's allies want it to win, it's not really that hard:
4) The total cost of the Estonian plan is 120 billion Euros, which would be divided among the allies.
5) The first F-16s are supposed to arrive in Ukraine in the next two weeks? I did not know that.
Some observations:
1) Like most others, the Estonian MoD assesses that Ukraine cannot achieve victory in 2024. The reason for this is that Ukraine's allies gave what they could from their artillery ammunition stockpiles to enable the Ukrainian offensive this year, and the US and EU nations are ramping up production, but they simply won't produce enough shells for Ukraine until the end of 2024. This plan for victory is to win in 2025.
2) The stakes are extremely high:
quote:
While exact estimates vary, there is general consensus that in the very short term (up to 2 years) Russia lacks the conventional capability required for escalating against NATO directly, because of its force degradation and commitments in the Ukrainian theatre. Furthermore, the Russian state has mobilised its defence industry at a scale unseen in decades to wage this war against Ukraine and the negative effects are clearly visible in the Russian state and defence budgets and the economic environment. However, should Russia prevail in this war within the next 12-18 months, it would validate its assumptions about our collective weakness that can militarily be challenged and exploited in the short term (up to 5 years). Favourable global developments and opportunities for Russia can further expedite such negative scenarios.
3) If Ukraine's allies want it to win, it's not really that hard:
quote:
The combined defence budgets of the Ramstein coalition are more than 13 times greater than Russia’s heavily inflated one: €1.24 trillion against €0.09 trillion in 2023. There should be no doubt in who has the advantage to prevail.
4) The total cost of the Estonian plan is 120 billion Euros, which would be divided among the allies.
quote:
Setting transatlantic defence up for success against this threat requires a renewed political will and resource commitment, worthy of the past and present sacrifices. Effectively, committing merely 0.25% of GDP annually towards military assistance to Ukraine would provide approximately €120 billion – more than sufficient resources to implement this strategy.
5) The first F-16s are supposed to arrive in Ukraine in the next two weeks? I did not know that.
quote:
The Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Belgium have already committed to donating F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. While the total number of the jets is undisclosed, the first deliveries are scheduled to take place before the end of this year, with additional ones spread over 2024 and 2025.
Posted on 12/16/23 at 6:31 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
No citations. No links. No stated basis whatsoever for your opinions. Got it. So let's cut to the chase ""bro"", which country's abortion rate is higher? Russia or the US?
He pointed out your sources. How blind can you be? Anyone who has bought data from Rostat for the last decade is not the brightest star in the sky to begin with
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