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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/30/23 at 11:38 pm to LSUnation78
Posted on 9/30/23 at 11:38 pm to LSUnation78
quote:
other than buying drones from Iran... wtf are you even talking about.
It’s everything from small and necessary changes, like the ability to remotely fire a Kornet from its tripod, to new armor packages for the tanks and IFVs, to improvements in their electronic warfare systems. They’re clearly taking feedback from units in the field, and making improvements across the board.
quote:
The T14 that was supposed to be in service 4 years ago? And yet is too broken to even see any fighting?
The biggest hurdle was money, which is a constant in Soviet and now Russian development programs. They didn’t want to spend the money, when it was so much cheaper to produce T-90s.
The Russians said they’ve used the war as a test bed for the Armata, and that they’ve made changes to the design base on what they’ve seen in Ukraine, but I don’t think it will see mass production before 2025.
0
Posted on 9/30/23 at 11:44 pm to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Russia had the strongest balance sheet of any major nation before the war started. Very low debt burden. They can afford this.
Come on you can’t believe this.
quote:
As far as their military goes, the war is beneficial. They’re gaining a lot of critical experience, and it’s resulted in a rapid modernization of their armed services, especially their ground force. Their military industry has grown dramatically as well
I actually agree with this. I’m not so much a believer in the we are degrading Russia’s military narrative.
quote:
Russia will be more powerful when the war ends, than when it started.
No chance. They had tremendous leverage over Europe before the war started and squandered it. They have also committed demographic hari-kiri with this war.
Posted on 9/30/23 at 11:54 pm to DavidTheGnome
quote:
The Ukraine invasion is making the Russian navy stronger???
No
Reread the analogy.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 12:05 am to Lima Whiskey
Ok I did, that’s what it sounds like to me. Regardless though your idea that Russia comes out of this bigger and stronger is laughable. It’s been shown their military while large is rife with problems and beaten back by old western military hardware. Imagine what they’d face against our most advanced tech. And by completely isolating themselves from the rest of the world and blowing through their military hardware there’s no chance in hell they come out of this bigger better and stronger.
Their failed invasion of Afghanistan helped lead to the fall of the Soviet Union. The invasion of Ukraine could lead to failure of the state or revolution, at the very least the end of the Putin regime.
Their failed invasion of Afghanistan helped lead to the fall of the Soviet Union. The invasion of Ukraine could lead to failure of the state or revolution, at the very least the end of the Putin regime.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 1:56 am to DavidTheGnome
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 01 October 2023
Documents, apparently leaked from Russia's Finance Ministry, suggests that Russia's defence spending is set to surge to approximately 30 per cent of total public expenditure in 2024.
The ministry proposes a defence budget of 10.8 trillion roubles, equivalent to approximately 6 per cent of GDP and a 68 per cent increase over 2023.
It is highly likely that Russia can support this level of defence spending through 2024, but only at the expense of the wider economy. Full details on Russian defence spending are always classified, but these figures suggests that Russia is preparing for multiple further years of fighting in Ukraine. This follows public comments by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on 27 September 2023, suggesting he was prepared for the conflict to continue into 2025.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 01 October 2023
Documents, apparently leaked from Russia's Finance Ministry, suggests that Russia's defence spending is set to surge to approximately 30 per cent of total public expenditure in 2024.
The ministry proposes a defence budget of 10.8 trillion roubles, equivalent to approximately 6 per cent of GDP and a 68 per cent increase over 2023.
It is highly likely that Russia can support this level of defence spending through 2024, but only at the expense of the wider economy. Full details on Russian defence spending are always classified, but these figures suggests that Russia is preparing for multiple further years of fighting in Ukraine. This follows public comments by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on 27 September 2023, suggesting he was prepared for the conflict to continue into 2025.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 4:57 am to cypher
Genuinely bad news for Ukraine:
quote:
BRATISLAVA, Slovakia (AP) — A populist former prime minister and his leftist party won parliamentary elections in Slovakia, staging a political comeback after campaigning on a pro-Russian and anti-American message, according to almost complete results.
Former Prime Minister Robert Fico and the leftist Smer, or Direction, party led with 22.9%, the Slovak Statistics Office said early Sunday after completing the count of 99.98% of the votes from some 6,000 polling stations.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 5:20 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
Russia had the strongest balance sheet of any major nation before the war started. Very low debt burden. They can afford this.
You really don't understand how sovereign debt works.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 5:25 am to Lima Whiskey
quote:
They’ll have the largest and most experienced army and air force in Europe. And their ground forces will have few if any legacy weapon systems left. What they have will either be new, or modernized.
They have the largest demographic crisis in Europe by a large, large, large measure. And there is no sign that it is going to be stabilized.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:26 am to crazy4lsu
ISW Update
quote:
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Melitopol direction (western Zaporizhia Oblast) and near Bakhmut.[1] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), Andriivka (10km southwest of Bakhmut), Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv), Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv), and Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[2] A fringe Russian milblogger reportedly affiliated with the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces implicitly recanted claims from September 24 that Ukrainian forces occupy half of Verbove (18km southeast of Orikhiv).[3] The fringe milblogger claimed on September 29 that elements of the 7th Guards VDV Division still hold Verbove despite suffering losses.[4]
The Kremlin has seemingly not yet clarified what Ukrainian territories it claims that Russia has annexed, leading to continued confusion among Russian government and occupation officials a year after the illegal annexation of occupied territories. Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech in honor of the so-called “Day of Reunification of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Luhansk People’s Republic, Zaporizhia, and Kherson Oblasts with Russia” on September 30 in which he reiterated boilerplate rhetoric about the international legitimacy of the illegal Russian annexation referenda, the West’s alleged role in starting the war in Ukraine, and the unity between Russia and occupied Ukraine.[5] Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhaev posted a map on his Telegram channel in honor of the holiday that showed the entirety of Crimea and Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts as Russian territory.[6] The Kherson Oblast occupation administration posted a different map that showed Russian territory roughly extending to the current frontlines in the four most recently annexed territories.[7] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev, a notable nationalist and extreme voice in the Russian government, ambiguously claimed that the war in Ukraine will continue until “the original Russian territories are liberated.”[8] Medvedev’s unclear statement and occupation officials’ disparate maps indicate that the Kremlin has yet to clarify what territories it claims to have annexed or intends to annex.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes primarily targeting Vinnytsia Oblast on the night of September 29 to 30. Ukrainian military sources reported on September 30 that Ukrainian forces downed 30 out of 40 Shahed-131/136 drones that Russian forces launched from occupied Crimea.[9] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces struck an infrastructure facility in Vinnytsia Oblast.
Russian milbloggers claimed on September 30 that the Russian military command removed the commander of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade following recent outrage from milbloggers about the brigade’s command.[15] The same group of Russian milbloggers extensively amplified reports about elements of the 205th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) suffering significant losses due to inadequate artillery support and poor leadership in the Kherson direction in late August.[16] One of the Russian milbloggers stated on September 30 that the removal of this commander is a “rare case” in which truth and justice prevailed.[17] The removal of the commander suggests that Russian ultranationalist outrage may still be able to pressure the Russian military command despite the apparent decline in such reactions in the wider Russian information space since the Wagner Group‘s June 24 rebellion.
An organization with alleged ties to Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko is reportedly categorizing Russian internet user data in an effort to disseminate tailored information to specific domestic populations as part of a wider attempt to control the Russian information space. Independent Belarusian outlet Vot Tak reported on September 29 that Russian non-profit organization Dialog is gathering Russian internet user data and information from Russian government agencies in order to categorize Russian media consumers and then feed tailored narratives to specific categories of users.[18] A former employee of Dialog told Vot Tak that Dialog’s database categorizes internet users by profession, interests, and political beliefs and specifically orients false news about the war in Ukraine and pro-war narratives toward Russian military personnel, relatives of military personnel, and civil servants.[19] The former Dialog employee also claimed that Dialog categorizes internet users as “loyal” and “disloyal” and shares its information with Russian security services
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on September 30.
The Kremlin has seemingly not yet clarified what Ukrainian territories it claims that Russia has annexed, leading to continued confusion among Russian government and occupation officials a year after the illegal annexation of occupied territories.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes primarily targeting Vinnytsia Oblast on the night of September 29 to 30.
Russian milbloggers claimed on September 30 that the Russian military command removed the commander of the Russian 205th Motorized Rifle Brigade following recent outrage from milbloggers about the brigade’s command.
An organization with alleged ties to Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko is reportedly categorizing Russian internet user data in an effort to disseminate tailored information to specific domestic populations as part of a wider attempt to control the Russian information space.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Kupyansk, Kreminna, Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and marginally advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian authorities have started to conscript citizens in occupied Ukraine who have Russian passports.
Russian authorities continue to forcibly deport children from occupied Ukraine to Russia in order to assimilate Ukrainian children into Russian culture.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:30 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
the leftist Smer
The Smer smear campaign was effective in the end.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:33 am to crazy4lsu
quote:
They have the largest demographic crisis in Europe by a large, large, large measure. And there is no sign that it is going to be stabilized.
Maybe they could just import hordes of Africans like the rest of Europe?
This post was edited on 10/1/23 at 9:19 am
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:34 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Drones today successfully attacked the parking lot of russian helicopters in Sochi, - the mass media with reference to sources in the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
LINK
quote:
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor #Orban congratulated pro-Russian #Slovak politician Robert #Fico on his victory in the parliamentary elections.
LINK
quote:
A drone crashed and exploded near #Sochi airport
LINK
quote:
For the first time Iranian ???? ammunition appeared in official footage from the Russian Ministry of Defense- showing Iranian 122mm HE-FRAG rockets of the Arash family for BM-21 Grad MRLS.
The use of Iranian Grad rocket were first reported by us back in the late August.
LINK
quote:
In the morning, a drone attacked the #Smolensk aircraft plant, which is part of the Tactical Missiles state corporation. Local authorities lied about all the drones being suppressed.
The mayor of Smolensk, Alexander Novikov, appealed to city residents with a request not to leave residential buildings unless necessary, and also to refrain from out-of-town trips
LINK
quote:
On this day in 1938, Hitler annexes Czechoslovakia's Sudetenland. "It is the last territorial claim which I have to make in Europe," the Nazi leader assures the world.
LINK
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:36 am to ned nederlander
Out of curiosity, are there any countries or international organizations actively seeking to bring Ukraine and Russia together to come to a settled peace and end this war?
If not, there should be. It’s blatantly obvious at this point neither country can achieve its war aims through force of arms. It’s a stalemate. The only thing being accomplished is more death and destruction for no appreciable benefit to anyone.
If not, there should be. It’s blatantly obvious at this point neither country can achieve its war aims through force of arms. It’s a stalemate. The only thing being accomplished is more death and destruction for no appreciable benefit to anyone.
This post was edited on 10/1/23 at 8:39 am
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:47 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Out of curiosity, are there any countries or international organizations actively seeking to bring Ukraine and Russia together to come to a settled peace and end this war?
If not, there should be. It’s blatantly obvious at this point neither country can achieve its war aims through force of arms. It’s a stalemate. The only thing being accomplished is more death and destruction for no appreciable benefit to anyone.
quote:
On 27 September 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with TASS that Russia was "ready to make agreements" on Ukraine if they would "take the situation on the ground" and Russian security interests into account.[121] According to Lavrov one of the Russian security interest was "the need to prevent the creation of a hostile Nazi regime near Russian borders."[121] Lavrov also said that Russia did not see "any serious proposals from the West" and he argued that they were promoting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ‘peace formula’ as "the sole basis for negotiations" and that there was "no point in discussing it as it is nothing but an ultimatum."[121] Lavrov also praised the June 2023 African, Arab League (although formally the Arab League never submitted its own peace proposal[118]), Chinese, Brazilian and peace proposals "from other countries" since he claimed "All of them were guided by a sincere desire to facilitate an agreement, which would consider the root causes of the current situation and the need to eliminate them, and will also ensure equal security for all parties."
wikipedia
China
quote:
At the UN General Assembly marking the anniversary of the invasion, Chinese deputy UN Ambassador proposed China's plan including a ceasefire, dialogue, security guarantees for Russia, protection of civilians and the upholding of territorial integrity, while also insisting that the west was exacerbating the situation by sending weapons to Ukraine
Africa
quote:
In June, a delegation from Africa, including representatives from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda, visited Ukraine and Russia to call for peace.[111] Both Russia and Ukraine welcomed the African leaders' mission, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that "Any peace initiative should respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, it should not imply, even in-between the lines, any cessation of Ukrainian territory to Russia. Second, any peace plan should not lead to the freezing of the conflict."[112] After a meeting with African leaders in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said that peace talks with Russia would be possible only after Moscow withdraws its forces from the entire occupied territory.[113] The African delegation was in Kyiv during a Russian missile strike on the city.[114]
On 17 June, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and other African leaders met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. Ramaphosa told Putin that the war must end,[115] but Putin rejected the delegation's peace plan based on accepting Ukraine's internationally recognized borders
Vatican
quote:
On 30 April, Pope Francis announced that the Vatican is taking part in a secret "peace mission" to try to end the war between Russia and Ukraine
Indonesia
quote:
On 3 June, Indonesia's defense minister Prabowo Subianto proposed a multi-point peace plan including a ceasefire and establishing a demilitarised zone observed and monitored by the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces.[106] He said that a UN referendum should be held "to ascertain objectively the wishes of the majority of the inhabitants of the various disputed areas".[107] Prabowo's proposal was criticised by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.[108]
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that the peace plans presented by China, Brazil and Indonesia are attempts at mediation on behalf of Russia, saying that "they all currently want to be mediators on Russia’s side. That’s why this sort of mediation currently doesn’t fit for us at all because they aren’t impartial."[109] Reznikov said that Ukraine is willing to accept China as a mediator for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine only if Beijing could convince Russia to withdraw from all the territories it has occupied in Ukraine
There are more from wiki but it this sums it up
quote:
On 22 May, Brazilian President Lula da Silva said that the countries of the Global South, including Brazil, India, Indonesia and China "want peace", but both Putin and Zelenskyy "are convinced that they are going to win the war" and do not want to talk about peace, so the war could be very long
This post was edited on 10/1/23 at 8:51 am
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:58 am to Darth_Vader
Posted on 10/1/23 at 8:59 am to ned nederlander
quote:
No chance. They had tremendous leverage over Europe before the war started and squandered it.
That was mostly because of the leader of the free world while Trump was in office(Merkel) was a Putin lover.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 9:00 am to StormyMcMan
What exactly was objectionable about my post? I’m guessing you disagree that at this point the fighting is pointless for both sides and a settled peace should be reached?
Posted on 10/1/23 at 9:01 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
What exactly was objectionable about my post? I’m guessing you disagree that at this point the fighting is pointless for both sides and a settled peace should be reached?
Probably the best outcome for everyone. It’s pretty clear that Ukraine isn’t going to be moving the lines in any significant way.
Posted on 10/1/23 at 9:04 am to DabosDynasty
So what happens when Serbia goes into Kosova? Is this how Russia starts its own proxy war with NATO?
Posted on 10/1/23 at 9:11 am to Darth_Vader
Neither side is ready to go the peace route.
Russia still thinks it can outlast the west and w still wants the rest of the 4 oblasts it “annexed” but has not occupied. Russia also wants Zelenskyy out and a more Russian friendly leader in place. Both of these are non starters for Ukraine
Ukraine wants to reclaim its territory and is not ready to surrender. In ukraines view this was has been going on since 2014. 2022 was a ramp up. They fought 8 years with little western help and will continue without western help
Also, any peace deal without Ukraine joining NATO will only leave Ukraine as a r future Russian target once Russian forces are reconstituted. And Ukraine in nato is a non starter for Russia with regards to peace
As much as I would like to see the loss of lives stopped, I don’t see either side meeting in the middle to go the peace route at this time.
Russia still thinks it can outlast the west and w still wants the rest of the 4 oblasts it “annexed” but has not occupied. Russia also wants Zelenskyy out and a more Russian friendly leader in place. Both of these are non starters for Ukraine
Ukraine wants to reclaim its territory and is not ready to surrender. In ukraines view this was has been going on since 2014. 2022 was a ramp up. They fought 8 years with little western help and will continue without western help
Also, any peace deal without Ukraine joining NATO will only leave Ukraine as a r future Russian target once Russian forces are reconstituted. And Ukraine in nato is a non starter for Russia with regards to peace
As much as I would like to see the loss of lives stopped, I don’t see either side meeting in the middle to go the peace route at this time.
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