re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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draining our Treasury?

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Can you provide some details here? Did we have a full "Treasury" two years ago but now it is almost empty? Or is this just hyperbole?

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 16 September 2023

Between October 2022 and March 2023, Russia focused long-range strikes against Ukraine's national energy infrastructure. Air launched cruise missiles (ALCMs), especially the modern AS-23a KODIAK, were at the heart of most of these strike missions. Russia uses strategic bomber aircraft to release these munitions from deep within Russian territory.

Open source reports suggest that since April 2023, ALCM expenditure rates have reduced, while Russian leaders have highlighted efforts to increase the rate of cruise missile production.

Russia is therefore likely able to generate a significant stockpile of ALCMs. There is a realistic possibility that Russia will again focus these weapons against Ukrainian infrastructure targets over the winter.

Ukraine's Crimea attacks seen as key to counter-offensive against Russia

This week saw spectacular Ukrainian attacks on the Crimean Peninsula, hitting Russian warships and missiles.

Estimates of the damage done ran into billions of pounds and raised the question: is Ukraine getting ready to retake Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

Crimea is a Russian fortress, so it is important not to get carried away.

"The strategy has two main goals," says Oleksandr Musiienko, from Kyiv's Centre for Military and Legal Studies.

"To establish dominance in the north-western Black Sea and to weaken Russian logistical opportunities for their defence lines in the south, near Tokmak and Melitopol."

In other words, operations in Crimea go hand-in-glove with Ukraine's counter-offensive in the south.

"They depend on each other," Musiienko says.

Let's look at Ukraine's recent successes in Crimea.

BBC News

Budanov is playing the long game with Crimea. He’s using intelligence sources to find targets like the S-400 system and in the dry dock in Sevastopol or the ammo dump in N Crimea a couple weeks back. Ukraine is basically just chipping away at Crimea’s strength and their air defense primarily while using their naval drones to attack ships but I wouldn’t say they any kind of invasion is imminent. I actually think this thing ends with Crimea either being Russian or A DMZ of sorts and an independent entity from both parties. The real question for me is where the lines will be drawn in Ukraine itself. I believe a return to pre Feb 2022 border lines could be seen as nothing but a massive victory for Ukraine.

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You have to look at this conflict from a 2014 perspective, not 2022. Russia started chipping away in 2014 and this is the culmination. Crimea being demilitarized would mean Russia obtained absolutely nothing since 2014 and they will not accept that. They have to get something or they’ll keep throwing meat into the grinder.

Ukraine getting everything back and crimea being a DMZ would be a huge win for Ukraine.

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This is why Biden has withheld ATACMS and F-16s to this point. Biden wanted Ukraine to be successful in retaking the "land bridge" in the South, but he did not want Ukraine to be able to retake Crimea, because the loss of Crimea would be destabilizing for Russia -- Putin might not survive.

Unfortunately (from the perspective of the Biden administration), Europe made F-16s happen and is forcing the administration's hand on ATACMS. The attempt to "thread the needle" has failed, and the end result might be that Ukraine disables Russian military bases on Crimea.

This story is a week old, but I don't think that we talked about it.

LINK

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WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - Russia may be able to increase production of artillery in the next couple years to about 2 million shells annually, about double some previous Western expectations but still far short of Moscow's Ukraine war needs, a Western official said on Friday.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, estimated Russia fired between 10 million and 11 million rounds last year in Ukraine. Moscow launched its invasion in February 2022.

"That's the predicament they've got," the official told a small group of reporters.

"If you expended 10 million rounds last year and you're in the middle of a fight and you can only produce 1 to 2 million rounds a year, I don't think that's a very strong position."

Other Russia investments in its defense sector may also allow Moscow to produce close to 200 tanks a year, double some previous Western estimates, the official said. But that too, the official said, was a far cry from what it needs after suffering heavy losses in Ukraine.

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The old Perun video on Russian ammo production estimated a max of 3.4 million shells a year. Producing two million only lets Russia fire off 5500 per day.

The tank losses are a bigger problem. Russia has lost an average of 4.2 tanks per day in this war and is making 0.55 tanks per day. That can't continue.

There are also trends for Ukraine that can't continue. I remain very skeptical of anyone who is sure that they know how the war ends.

What about spare parts etc

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What about spare etc

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Russia has worn a lot of tubes out.

Have fun in your ignorance