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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 9/7/23 at 4:01 pm to ned nederlander
Posted on 9/7/23 at 4:01 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Now if this is true my guess is Elon’s real motivation here was keeping Russia’s and Tesla’s mutual acquaintance happy.
There are 95 owners of X Holdings, Musk is the leader of the owners group. His plans are to make it much more than social media but a commercial and banking platform. So, his motivation is to make money on a global scale.
FWIW, Isaacson was said to be the main advisor for Mitch Landrieu while he was mayor and trying to position himself to run for president.
1
Posted on 9/7/23 at 4:31 pm to CitizenK
KyivPost
@KyivPost
A drone allegedly attacked the territory of the Kremniy EL microelectronics factory in #Bryansk, Russia. One of the buildings caught fire, Russian media reports.
Kremniy EL is one of Russia's largest producers of microelectronics required for the needs of the Russian Ministry of Defence. The factory produces components for the #Pantsir air defence system and #Iskander missile complexes.
@KyivPost
A drone allegedly attacked the territory of the Kremniy EL microelectronics factory in #Bryansk, Russia. One of the buildings caught fire, Russian media reports.
Kremniy EL is one of Russia's largest producers of microelectronics required for the needs of the Russian Ministry of Defence. The factory produces components for the #Pantsir air defence system and #Iskander missile complexes.
Posted on 9/7/23 at 6:09 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
Very interesting article if true: ““How am I in this war?” Musk asks Isaacson. “Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.” Twitter is also supposed to be a global town square, Elon. Turns out, when the globe gets together it mostly wants to circulate dick pics and hate the Jews. What can you do. Now if this is true my guess is Elon’s real motivation here was keeping Russia’s and Tesla’s mutual acquaintance happy.
And yet, Elon has done more to kill Russians than any other single American by far.
Posted on 9/7/23 at 6:25 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Free at first yet when he hollered the DoD picked up the tab. Yet it wasn't completely free, Musk sold many terrestrial receivers to Ukraine via fund raising, he also sold monthly subscriptions to them too, used by frontline units
Posted on 9/7/23 at 6:59 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Assessment by the French on Russia tank stockpile with conclusions.
LINK
To sum it up, there is definitely tension with ability to supply tanks to the front and Russia would likely be at the breaking point should an actual breakthrough occur from Ukraine and break the Russian Army
They still have their shovels though.
Posted on 9/7/23 at 7:05 pm to CitizenK
quote:
Free at first yet when he hollered the DoD picked up the tab. Yet it wasn't completely free, Musk sold many terrestrial receivers to Ukraine via fund raising, he also sold monthly subscriptions to them too, used by frontline units
What’s your point? How many free Javelins and artillery rounds have been sent by General Dynamics?
Posted on 9/7/23 at 7:07 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
What’s your point? How many free Javelins and artillery rounds have been sent by General Dynamics?
His "donation" generated revenue. It was a switch and bait technique. I've fine with him getting paid for it but not fine with method to do so
Posted on 9/7/23 at 7:43 pm to CitizenK
quote:
His "donation" generated revenue. It was a switch and bait technique. I've fine with him getting paid for it but not fine with method to do so
I am not, generally, a fan of Musk. But I have no problem with him donating the terminals in the short term, without anyone knowing that this would turn into a long war, and then asking for money to keep providing the service when it becomes clear that this is going to go on for a while.
Nor am I particularly worked up about the fact that Musk speaks to Russian officials. Since Russia is a partner in the International Space Station and Musk's SpaceX sends rockets there, some official conversations are inevitable.
Posted on 9/7/23 at 7:47 pm to StormyMcMan
quote:
Basically if it's moving more than 100 km/hr and is over water or Russian occupied Ukraine, starlink stops working because Musk was afraid of escalation
Not sure how I feel about this. Obviously, it’s his prerogative as it’s his system, but what was the point of giving them the system in the first place to not expect something of the nature to happen for the benefit of the people you gave the system?
His argument is essentially equal to holding the gun manufactures liable to gun violence because they should somehow control the purchaser's use of their product.
Posted on 9/7/23 at 7:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
I am not, generally, a fan of Musk. But I have no problem with him donating the terminals in the short term, without anyone knowing that this would turn into a long war, and then asking for money to keep providing the service when it becomes clear that this is going to go on for a while. Nor am I particularly worked up about the fact that Musk speaks to Russian officials. Since Russia is a partner in the International Space Station and Musk's SpaceX sends rockets there, some official conversations are inevitable.
Yea I think it’s pretty likely Elon is being fairly genuine here. He probably did wade into this with good intentions, looked around the room and realized he’s now embroiled in a Eurasian land war, said how did I end up here and nope’d himself out the door as best he could.
Posted on 9/7/23 at 8:18 pm to ned nederlander
Andrew Perpetua is a good Twitter follow: LINK
What's nice about what he does is that he puts it all in a spreadsheet with the original links, so that, for each loss, you can see the Telegram or Twitter posts that the photos/videos came from.
Spreadsheet for 9-7
And, as he says, his main focus is the map: LINK
quote:
These are the losses I could identify today. These are based on video and photographs found today. A large fraction are geolocated and put on the map.
These losses represent only what crossed my desk. It is not meant to portray anything beyond that.
I don't search and collect destroyed vehicles. I draw a map. Finding the vehicles is part of drawing a map, its a biproduct.
What's nice about what he does is that he puts it all in a spreadsheet with the original links, so that, for each loss, you can see the Telegram or Twitter posts that the photos/videos came from.
Spreadsheet for 9-7
And, as he says, his main focus is the map: LINK
Posted on 9/7/23 at 8:51 pm to GOP_Tiger
ISW Update
quote:
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 7 and made further gains on both sectors of the front. Geolocated footage published on September 7 indicates that Ukrainian forces have made further advances northwest of Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast
US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director of Analysis Trent Maul stated that there is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces will break through the entire Russian defense in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023, while a Ukrainian source suggested that upcoming Russian defensive positions are weaker than those Ukrainian forces have previously breached. Maul stated on September 6 in an interview with the Economist that the recent Ukrainian breach of the “first” of three Russian defensive layers in southern Ukraine gives Ukrainian forces a “realistic possibility” to break through the remaining series of Russian defensive positions by the end of 2023.[6] Maul stated that Ukrainian forces have also advanced into the “second” Russian defensive layer, likely referring to recent advances by light Ukrainian infantry past the series of Russian defensive positions that run northwest of Verbove to north of Solodka Balka (20km south of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[7] Former Ukrainian Aidar Battalion Commander Yevhen Dykyi stated on September 4 that battles are already ongoing at these Russian defensive positions but that Ukrainian forces have not yet broken through them.[8] Dykyi stated that the minefields ahead of the upcoming Russian defensive layer are not continuous, consistent with previous Ukrainian statements suggesting that Ukrainian forces have already advanced through the densest minefields.[9] Dykyi stated that Russia’s “third” defensive layer in southern Ukraine is primarily comprised of command posts, communication points, and warehouses and mainly acts as a support line for the Russian defensive positions further north.[10] Dykyi argued that Russian forces will not be able to hold back Ukrainian advances at this “third“ series of Russian defensive positions, implying that a definitive Ukrainian breach of the current Russian defensive layer would be operationally decisive. However, Maul notably stated that the bulk of Russian reinforcements are deployed to the “third” Russian defensive layer, contradicting Dykyi’s suggestion that these positions are merely supportive in nature.[11] The subsequent series of Russian defensive positions may be weaker, less mined, and less manned than the defensive layer that Ukrainian forces have breached. Russian defenses are not uniform across the front in southern Ukraine, however, and assessments of the strength of subsequent Russian defensive positions may be extrapolations based on limited information from small sectors of the front. Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains and successfully attriting defending Russian forces and ISW continues to assess Ukraine’s counteroffensive may achieve operational successes in 2023, but subsequent series of Russian defensive positions still pose significant challenges for Ukrainian forces and may in sections be strongly held.
Russian forces conducted another large-scale Shahed-136/131 drone attack against Sumy and Odesa oblasts overnight on September 6-7. Ukrainian Air Force Command stated that Russia launched 33 Shaheds in several groups from the northern, southeastern, and southern directions, predominantly aimed at grain infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, and that Ukrainian forces destroyed 25 of the drones
Moscow Oblast authorities detained the commander of the 1st Special Purpose Air and Missile Defense Army on bribery and corruption charges amidst continued and escalating drone attacks on Moscow. Russian media reported on September 7 that the Moscow Garrison Military Court detained Major General Konstantin Ogienko for bribery and noted that 4th Air Defense Division Commander Major General Dmitry Belatsky organized the allocation of state defense property to an unnamed civilian organization in collusion with Ogienko
Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted three Russian generals, including Central Military District (CMD) and Russian Central Grouping of Forces in Ukraine Commander Colonel General Andrey Mordvichev, on September 6. Putin promoted Mordvichev and 8th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) Commander Gennady Alashkin to the rank of colonel general, and Ministry of Defense (MoD) Main Armored Directorate Head Alexander Shestakov to the rank of lieutenant general
Russian sources accused Armenian authorities of detaining a pro-Russian blogger in Goris, Armenia, on September 6. Head of Rossotrudnichestvo (Russian Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs, Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation) Yevgeny Primakov claimed that “unknown masked men” abducted pro-Russian blogger Mikayel Badalyan in Goris on the night of September 6
The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) cancelled regional elections in some areas in Russia near the Ukrainian border for the first time. Russian CEC Head Ella Pamfilova announced on September 7 the cancellation of local elections in Shebekino Raion and the village of Zhigailovsky in Belgorod Oblast due to the “high alert” regime in the area.[25] Russian authorities previously passed a law in May 2023 authorizing the CEC to cancel elections in certain areas under martial law.[26] The CEC likely cancelled these elections due to prior criticism of evacuations from Shebekino and the possibility that there may not be enough civilians remaining in Shebekino to portray these elections as legitimate.
quote:
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 7 and made further gains on both sectors of the front.
US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) Director of Analysis Trent Maul stated that there is a “realistic possibility” that Ukrainian forces will break through the entire Russian defense in southern Ukraine by the end of 2023, while a Ukrainian source suggested that upcoming Russian defensive positions are weaker than those Ukrainian forces have previously breached.
Ukrainian forces are making tactical gains and successfully attriting defending Russian forces and ISW continues to assess Ukraine’s counteroffensive may achieve operational successes in 2023, but subsequent series of Russian defensive positions still pose significant challenges for Ukrainian forces and may in sections be strongly held.
Russian forces conducted another large-scale Shahed-136/131 drone attack against Sumy and Odesa oblasts overnight on September 6-7.
Moscow Oblast authorities detained the commander of the 1st Special Purpose Air and Missile Defense Army on bribery and corruption charges amidst continued and escalating drone attacks on Moscow.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut direction, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area but did not make any confirmed advances on September 7.
Posted on 9/8/23 at 5:11 am to StormyMcMan
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 08 September
It's highly likely that the successful export of Ukrainian grain during the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) has helped reduce global prices and food insecurity. During the initiative more than 32 million tonnes of food reached the global market and the Food Price Index fell 23% from its peak in March 2022. Developing nations have especially benefited from lower prices as well as from direct imports of grain from Ukraine.
Russia's withdrawal from the BSGI has reduced Ukraine's exports, a clear effort to degrade the Ukrainian economy and its ability to support the war effort. The agricultural sector made up 40% of Ukraine's exports pre-war and remains vital; food exports earned $28bn in 2021.
Ukraine has found success using alternative methods like river, rail and road to export its grain; however, it is unlikely that this will match the capacity of the Black Sea export routes.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 08 September
It's highly likely that the successful export of Ukrainian grain during the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) has helped reduce global prices and food insecurity. During the initiative more than 32 million tonnes of food reached the global market and the Food Price Index fell 23% from its peak in March 2022. Developing nations have especially benefited from lower prices as well as from direct imports of grain from Ukraine.
Russia's withdrawal from the BSGI has reduced Ukraine's exports, a clear effort to degrade the Ukrainian economy and its ability to support the war effort. The agricultural sector made up 40% of Ukraine's exports pre-war and remains vital; food exports earned $28bn in 2021.
Ukraine has found success using alternative methods like river, rail and road to export its grain; however, it is unlikely that this will match the capacity of the Black Sea export routes.
Posted on 9/8/23 at 7:13 am to CitizenK
quote:
His "donation" generated revenue. It was a switch and bait technique. I've fine with him getting paid for it but not fine with method to do so
fricking idiot
Anyway, how’s your circlejerk going?
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:35 am to Proximo
Interesting take on this imo... I don't agree with his "escalation" assessment..
There are already drone strikes in Moscow and Sevastopol is I think widely considered to be within the theater of conflict..
ETA: by theater of conflict I mean Crimea is part of the contested territory claimed by Ukraine..
There are already drone strikes in Moscow and Sevastopol is I think widely considered to be within the theater of conflict..
ETA: by theater of conflict I mean Crimea is part of the contested territory claimed by Ukraine..
This post was edited on 9/8/23 at 8:46 am
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:36 am to Proximo
So are we for Elon or against? Do we arrest him or have a parade for him?
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:50 am to Pfft
I do not like Musk, but at that point, we were still talking about equipment that he had donated to Ukraine, and he had every right to determine how that equipment was used.
It's no different than when the US gives HIMARS to Ukraine and says not to use them to strike inside Russia.
It's no different than when the US gives HIMARS to Ukraine and says not to use them to strike inside Russia.
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:54 am to GOP_Tiger
LINK
quote:
Russian General Andrei Mordvichev interview:
- The war will take a long time. There is no point in talking specific dates... If we talk about Eastern Europe, what we have to do - of course it will take longer...
- Is Ukraine just a stage?
- Yes, exactly. It's just the beginning.
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:56 am to GOP_Tiger
Russia might want to rein in their aspirations. They can't even conquer Ukraine.
Posted on 9/8/23 at 8:59 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Russian General Andrei Mordvichev interview:
- The war will take a long time. There is no point in talking specific dates... If we talk about Eastern Europe, what we have to do - of course it will take longer...
- Is Ukraine just a stage?
- Yes, exactly. It's just the beginning.
If that doesn't motivate the Europeans, nothing will.
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