re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Looking at Google Earth Pro, it is 15 miles from Tokmak to Robotyne. It is already within range of multiple forms of guided artillery.

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Placing any advanced system in Robotyne right now is far to hot.

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No doubt. However the range of HIMARS is from 20 to 30 miles so its not like it has to be in the thick of it.

I don't think the UKR will have a big advantage.
That is a very small area for Russia to train their artillery on.
No matter how bad they are.
Not saying UKRwill.not keep pushing but that I going to be a fricked up place to be in the next couple of months.

I think we are going to see a lot more of this real soon.

How Skynex Annihilates Russian Drones in Ukraine


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJi88DEmRCA

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Ukraine doesn't need to take Tomak for russia to pull our assets/resources of value. They just need to make it untenable by putting it in conventional artillery range, and bringing the supply route to Tomak under HIMARS range,

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I am skeptical of the whole "untenable" argument. In Bakhmut, the two armies have fought for a year within a couple of miles of each other, and neither had its supply lines render the other's positions "untenable."

I do think that Ukraine wants to get as close to Tokmak as possible, but the most important objective for them is to cut the rail line going east from Tokmak. I personally do not anticipate that Ukraine is likely to do this before mud season.

For months now, both sides have had a set of unrealistic expectations.

- The pro-Russian side has believed that the "Surovikin Line," their rows of dragon's teeth and anti-tank trenches, will stop Ukraine.

- The pro-Ukrainian side has believed that, once they get past the Surovikin Line, it will be smooth sailing to the coast of Azov. (I believed this myself for a while.)

It turns out that the dragon's teeth and the anit-tank ditches are not a very big deal.

What was a big deal was the extremely deep and dense minefields that Ukraine had to go through at the very beginning of the offensive.

The other big deal was simply a well-equipped Russian army. An anti-tank ditch and some dragon's teeth aren't tough to cross compared to a treeline full of Russian infantry with ATGMs, backed by armor and drone operators behind them, backed by artillery behind them, with Ka-52s behind them.

The story of the Ukrainian offensive towards Tokmak is that it took a very green 47th Brigade a long time to advance past the dense minefields and attrit the Russian units (especially the artillery) enough so that they can make the regular progress that we now see.

That's why the Ukrainian offensive won't stop for mud season. It can't stop.

If Ukraine were to stop at the start of mud season and say, "Oh, we'll finish the offensive in the spring," then Russia would spend all winter laying mines and rebuilding its strength in the area. A spring offensive in those conditions would be even harder for Ukraine than the offensive this year.

No, Ukraine is going to have to keep the pressure on and continue to advance, mud season or no. It will be harder, to be sure, but a lot of the work that Ukraine has been doing recently is with dismounted infantry backed by artillery, and that kind of attack won't be severely impacted by a lack of armor mobility.

If Ukraine can keep advancing through the winter, then they continue to attrit Russian forces to the point that a true breakthrough could be possible.

I think that's doable, as long as western ammo supplies hold up until the big contracts generate the assembly lines that should come online in 2024. GLSDB will remove the Ka-52 base at Berdyansk. And, even if I am not sure that Ukraine can reduce the Russian presence to "untenable," I do think that they can squeeze Russian logistics enough to continue to give them an edge on the battlefield and enable them to make continued progress.

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I am skeptical of the whole "untenable" argument. In Bakhmut, the two armies have fought for a year within a couple of miles of each other, and neither had its supply lines render the other's positions "untenable."

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There's always a way to run supplies in to a front line position. You're not going to cut it off completely without physically cutting it off. You can however make a logistics hub untenable. You can't run supplies to the front line troops if there are no supplies.

Ya’ll still being the useful jesters for the money launderers?

That's exactly what they would say

Ukraine wouldn’t do anything without IS support!! We have to stop funding death :(


Money funneling into Ukraine is a money laundering scheme for hunter Bidens coke habit!!!

pick one

ISW Update

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Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of September 6. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced along the trench line west of Verbove (about 20km southeast of Orikhiv), and the Ukrainian General Staff stated that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified successes in the Robotyne—Novoprokopivka direction south of Orikhiv.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff additionally reported that Ukrainian forces are continuing successful offensive operations south of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian and Russian sources report the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) faces growing challenges in replacing basic supplies in addition to known challenges in rebuilding its stocks of precision weapons. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov reported on September 6 that Russia can only produce “dozens” of Kalibr cruise missiles and smaller numbers of Iskander missiles per month, which will not enable Russia to the replenish its pre-2022 stocks.[3] Yusov reported that Russia struggles to obtain modern optical equipment, electronics, chips, and circuits and that “gray imports” and smuggling cannot completely cover the Russian DIB’s needs. Russian sources additionally noted that the Russian DIB cannot produce enough rubber to replace worn tires for military equipment vital to frontline operations, and noted that increasing wear on tires will make it difficult for wheeled vehicles to move in muddy, rainy, and icy conditions.[4] The Russian sources claimed that Russian authorities claimed at an unspecified time that they would find solutions to worn tires by mid-August, but the situation has not changed as of September 5.

Russian forces conducted a large missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on September 5-6. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched seven Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kh-55 air-launched cruise missiles from aircraft operating out of Engels airbase in Saratov Oblast; one Iskander-M ballistic missile; and 25 Shahed 136/131 drones from the Primorsko-Akhtarsk direction.[6] Ukrainian air defenses shot down all eight missiles and 15 drones.[7] Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strike damaged the port and agricultural infrastructure in Odesa Oblast.[8] Romanian Defense Minister Angel Tilvar stated on September 6 that several pieces of a Russian drone fell on Romanian territory near its border with Ukraine

Russian sources continue to speculate on the current role and future of dismissed Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS). Several Russian insider sources and milbloggers remarked that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) removed Surovikin’s profile from the official MoD website other than his video appeal released during the Wagner rebellion asking the group to stand down

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced an additional $175 million military assistance package for Ukraine during an unannounced visit to Kyiv on September 6. The package includes air defense equipment, artillery rounds, and anti-tank weapons.[15] Blinken stated that the United States aims to ensure that Ukraine “has what it needs” to both succeed in the current counteroffensive and to develop long term defensive capabilities.[16] Blinken called Ukrainian progress in the counteroffensive “very, very encouraging.”

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the Bakhmut and western Zaporizhia Oblast directions and have made gains in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of September 6.

Ukrainian and Russian sources report the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) faces growing challenges replacing basic supplies in addition to known challenges rebuilding its stocks of precision weapons

Russian forces conducted a large missile and drone strike against Ukraine overnight on September 5-6.

Russian sources continue to speculate on the current role and future of dismissed Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin, the former commander of Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS).

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced an additional $175 million military assistance package for Ukraine during an unannounced visit to Kyiv on September 6.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donestk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 6.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front and advanced near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 6.

Russian authorities continue crypto-mobilization efforts amid continued rumors of a new wave of general mobilization.

Ukrainian reports indicate that Russian and occupation authorities continue attempts to increase social control in occupied Ukraine by cracking down against pro-Ukrainian materials in occupied schools.

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