re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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What a weird take. Ukraine hits Donetsk with an S-200, no military targets nearby...I don't say a word. Russia blows up the Ukrainian SBU building in response and they're "randomly bombing civilians"

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Taganrog, where the S-200 hit, is 40km over the Russian/Ukrainian border.

According to TASS the rocket had been intercepted by Russian AD causing it to fall on a residential area.

If the Russians themselves are saying it was downed by AD fire then insinuating that Ukraine targeted this area is misleading.

https://t.me/s/tass_agency/203001



Regarding the Ukrainian SBU hit, yes it was, but a nearby residential apartment looks to also have been hit by a second Iskandar missile likely targeted at the same spot. Rather than being examples of indiscriminate targeting of civilians by either side both of these hits on civilian targets look to be the one of unfortunate outcomes of war - collateral damage.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitors/status/1684993997171802115

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According to preliminary information, the Iskander missile strike was intended for the building of the SBU administration in the Dnipro region; but it hit a residential building instead.

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1 projectile seems to have hit a portion of the SBU building

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Edit: Clarity/Fixed image.

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Why do we have to be the ones not letting them? Aren’t there like 4 of the top 10 economies in the world sitting right there next to the war zone? You’d think they could “not let” Russia do anything anytime they wanted.

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Because no one else will. I think it’s somewhere between that’s what we’ve wanted and that’s just what we’ve allowed. Either way clearly the last 70+ years of European history are both successful for peace and could have been better for long term goals.

I get frustrated about it similar to you and think Trump had a lot of points, aside from actually pulling out of NATO. I personally think that was just a negotiation tactic to increase spending though. I just support action that is conscious of the reality of the situation, no one else will and if nobody does anything it’s the same general build up to WWII where the enemies consumes and builds into a monster powerhouse. NATO is really only as good as belief well act with strength, if we look weak it challenges belief that NATO is actually something for Russia to fear.

Hindsight is 2020 but it seems we’d have been better served to work with the Eastern Europeans more directly as each left the Soviet Union and continued to help. The USSR was crumbling and would t have been in a real position to challenge us over it imo. Then by the time it fully fell there’s no claims of us building up their bordering nations to challenge them and start a new Cold War. We’d just need to manage the status quo and reduce our physical presence as we helped them build theirs.

I think it’s important to note that the longest period of peace in Europe has been under American hegemony, and the first entities to break that are countries outside the direct sphere of influence.

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Honestly I think we’re at the point where an outright loss for Ukraine undermines us and bolsters Russia to the eastern and African part of the world.

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We’re losing Africa anyways because of retarded foreign policy. The French lost their foothold in Mali because they didn’t want to play well with a non-elected military junta. We’re about to lose Niger because we won’t aid a military junta that took power through a coup. Islamic extremism will flourish and the governments will turn to Wagner for security aid. All because we demand the entire world now to our ideal of democracy, it’s ridiculous. Who really gives a shite if a military strongman despot rules pets of anfrica if he’s helping us anchieve our goals? And all of that has absolutely zero to do with the war in Ukraine or our response to it.

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All because we demand the entire world now to our ideal of democracy, it’s ridiculous

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I think it's more of we don't deal with military coups

Otherwise we wouldn't be trading with China, Vietnam, Saudi, etc.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on July 28.

Russian naval posturing in the Black Sea likely aims to impose a de facto blockade on Ukrainian ports without committing the Black Sea Fleet to the enforcement of a naval blockade.

Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to reassure African partner states that Russia will maintain its economic and security commitments during the second day of the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg.

The Kremlin continues to display little interest in an unspecific peace plan focused on eliminating disruptions to international trade proposed by African heads of state.

Russian authorities may be increasingly concerned about how the Russian electorate views the war ahead of regional elections in September 2023 and the Russian presidential election in 2024.

Politico reported that the first batch of refurbished US Abrams tanks will likely arrive in Ukraine in September.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on July 28 and made advances in certain areas.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on July 28 and have reportedly advanced along the Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, and along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border.

The Russian Federation Council approved measures allowing the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia) to receive heavy military equipment and increasing the upper limit of the conscription age range from 27 years old to 30 years old.

Russian authorities continue to deport Ukrainian teenagers to Russia under the guise of summer camp programs.

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Article on TheDrive highlighting the toll Russian drones are taking on valuable Ukrainian air defense

The Drive

If Russia can manufacture the Lancet drones in the numbers claimed here, combined with the Iranian and Chinese drones, Ukraine's ability to claw back its territory will be even more costly.

"Compared to the often highly expensive surface-to-air missile systems delivered to Ukraine via foreign aid, the cost to produce Lancet drones for Russia — approximately 3 million roubles (around $35,000) — is fractional compared to the value of their impact on the battlefield. Following recent promises to increase drone production, Kalashnikov — the Russian company producing the Lancet — released a video of its Lancet facilities via Telegram. According to its caption, the drone's chief designer, Aleksandr Zaharov, requires a segway to navigate the sprawling operation. “Two hundred thousand [Lancets] are already ready, another million are on the way,” according to the video caption. "

Just tax them for protection

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Over the last 48 hours there has been an uptick of fighting in two sectors in southern Ukraine.

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Eh, the last 24 hours has seen some stormy weather and much-reduced fighting. I think that the Brits are a day behind in this report.