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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:22 pm to REG861
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:22 pm to REG861
quote:
Was there some sort of western district or American district you lived in when you were in Niamey? Gated neighborhoods and such? I’m trying to visualize what’s it’s like living there. I have no idea how it stacks up compared to Somalia versus somewhere like Namibia.
Better than Somalia but it’s still like 4th poorest country in the world. My company had several houses on the western side of town about half a mile from the US and French embassies. The neighborhood was mostly wealthy Nigériens, embassy staff and other expats. It wasn’t a gated compound or neighborhood but all the houses had walls and gates. We had local unarmed guards that I guess were there to mostly keep the beggars away.
West African culture prides itself on politeness. The only crime I ever witnessed was a guy at a market trying to snatch a purse from a young white french girl. He made it about 10 steps before about 10 other locals tackled and beat the ever living shite out of him. Honestly I’m not even sure if the thief lived.
I think it was the summer of 2021 that 4 young French female NGO workers and their 2 local guides were executed by Islamic extremists about 30 miles outside of town at a giraffe reserve. After that the Nigérien government wouldn’t let westerners outside of the city limits without an army escort. Which of course costs a lot of money so most of the NGOs couldn’t afford it and pulled out. Really it was just a skeleton UN crew and embassy staff/military left in town after that.
The violence is definitely working it’s way south from Mali into Burkina Faso and Niger and even into the littorals, Ghana, Côté D’Ivoire, Togo and Bénin.
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Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:24 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
As long as we continue to depend on rare minerals and elements that we can't mine domestically, isolationism or even "non-interventionism" is a fantasy and advocating for it is a fools errand. And as long as Russia and China continue to compete with us for those minerals, allowing them to seize territory, and operate unchecked, anywhere on the globe, is contrary to your interests, whether you realize it or not.
Well I’m not an isolationist. But Europe can be doing more.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:26 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:Yeah, I added "non-interventionism" just for you.
Well I’m not an isolationist. But Europe can be doing more.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:27 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:Of course. But if they don't?
But Europe can be doing more.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:28 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
Yeah, I added "non-interventionism" just for you.
I’m all good with interfering the frick out the pacific in regards to China. And I’d support our intervention in Europe a lot more if Western Europe wasn’t so worthless.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:31 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
Of course. But if they don't?
I think part of our deal to protect the entire continent should be that they have to do a certain amount of business with American companies. Like a certain percentage of cars sold in England need to be Fords and Chevy’s whether they like or not. And as far as I’m concerned Germany should have absolutely zero say in its own energy policy from here on out. Basically we should get to treat them like our little colonies.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:37 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
I'd be fine with that but the question remains: if the euros don't step up? What's the plan then?
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:41 pm to northshorebamaman
quote:
I'd be fine with that but the question remains: if the euros don't step up? What's the plan then?
Euros fought each other endlessly until we arrived. Perhaps they’d like to revisit what life was like from antiquity to 1945.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 2:41 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Awesome. Looks like we can finally cut them loose and let them stand on their own two feet.
Our necessary future level of commitment depends very much on how this war ends. If Ukraine wins, we would only need to have a relatively small European presence.
This post was edited on 7/28/23 at 2:43 pm
Posted on 7/28/23 at 3:09 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Germany should have absolutely zero say in its own energy policy from here on out. Basically we should get to treat them like our little colonies.
Our government’s energy policy sucks bug time. Why would you wish this on others?
Posted on 7/28/23 at 3:17 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Well I’m not an isolationist. But Europe can be doing more.
I agree.
I think a lot of the problem is that after WW2, we enabled Europe by manning the border opposite the iron curtain. We had to fill the vacuum, but we made money doing it and wd got use to it as did the Europeans.
We should have backed out more after the USSR fell, but we didn’t.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 3:25 pm to doubleb
A lot of people seem to think Europe played us for suckers, but we wanted to make them an offer they couldn't refuse. If we lowballed them, the Soviet Union was there waiting with carrots and/or sticks. Many of those countries had not insignificant home grown Eurocommnunist movements up through the early eighties. Western Europe's tilt to the US sphere of influence was not a foregone conclusion.
This post was edited on 7/28/23 at 3:31 pm
Posted on 7/28/23 at 3:39 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Our necessary future level of commitment depends very much on how this war ends. If Ukraine wins, we would only need to have a relatively small European presence.
What if they lose? You’ve pointed out that the rest of NATO is increasing their defense spending permanently and now they have Finland and Sweden to help fight the Russians too.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 3:42 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
A lot of people seem to think Europe played us for suckers, but we wanted to make them an offer they couldn't refuse. If we lowballed them, the Soviet Union was there waiting with carrots and/or sticks. Many of those countries had not insignificant home grown Eurocommnunist movements up through the early eighties. Western Europe's tilt to the US sphere of influence was not a foregone conclusion.
Right. And the Cold War ended over 20 years ago. It’s time those self-righteous cünts built their own army. I don’t really give a shite if they have to cut their healthcare and education programs.
This post was edited on 7/28/23 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 7/28/23 at 3:50 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
And as far as I’m concerned Germany should have absolutely zero say in its own energy policy from here on out. Basically we should get to treat them like our little colonies.
I agree with this wholeheartedly, you just need to take this to its natural conclusion.
If we don’t treat them like colonies, someone else will.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 3:59 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
If we don’t treat them like colonies, someone else will.
Well we’re not treating them like our colonies right now. We just promise to blow up Russia if they ever come rolling through.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 4:09 pm to REG861
quote:
You know something positive happened for Ukraine in the battlefield today when ColtRange starts sharing videos of random bombings of civilians.
What a weird take. Ukraine hits Donetsk with an S-200, no military targets nearby...I don't say a word. Russia blows up the Ukrainian SBU building in response and they're "randomly bombing civilians"
This post was edited on 7/28/23 at 4:10 pm
Posted on 7/28/23 at 4:11 pm to GeauxxxTigers23
Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman recently went to Ukraine and have a writeup in The Economist:
quote:
Ukraine is struggling to conduct effective combined-arms operations largely because of deficiencies in two areas: training and experience.
Start with training. The problem is both a lack of it and the wrong sort. Over the course of the war Ukrainian forces have lost a large number of their best personnel, with many units on the line unable to rotate out. Combined-arms warfare requires significant time for training, not only to learn how to use equipment but also how to operate effectively as a unit. New units with a few months of training in the West may perform well in individual combat tasks but still lack cohesion.
The new brigades have been unsuccessful not only because they had little time to develop this cohesion, but also because they have not been trained the way they need to fight. Ukrainian soldiers’ ability to master Western tech quickly led to misplaced optimism that the time it takes to develop cohesive fighting units could be short-circuited. Putting these units in the vanguard of a difficult assault, instead of more experienced formations, now looks like a mistake that reflected the prioritisation of Western kit over time in the field.
This war also reinforces the importance of experience. Ukraine’s army is now one of the most experienced in the world, but it still lacks experience co-ordinating offensive action on a large scale. What on paper is an attacking brigade of several thousand men is, in practice, a couple of reinforced companies of no more than a few hundred men each—a smaller force that struggles to establish superiority over entrenched defenders. Although Ukraine can conduct combined-arms assaults at the level of a platoon, this begins to come apart when attempting to scale up to the level of a company or battalion.
Ukraine’s armed forces remain uneven because of losses and several waves of mobilisation. Experienced brigades can correct artillery fire and conduct reconnaissance and suppress enemy positions in advance of an attack. Newer units are unable to put those pieces together even when provided with the best Western equipment.
Even if Ukraine were able to fix all these tactical issues, it would still struggle to overcome Russian defences without more mine-clearing equipment, short-range air defence, air power and a significant advantage over Russia in stocks of artillery ammunition. Ukraine’s forces are highly motivated but face a daunting task against minefields, entrenchments and competent Russian defenders.
quote:
Ukraine’s offensive is far from over and attrition has served it well in the past. A new wave of attacks by second-echelon forces is now testing the Russian defence to see if attrition has had the desired effects. The West is best served by backing Ukraine’s way of war, by exploiting its advantages in defence-industrial capacity (including ammunition production) and the quality of its weapons. Help Ukraine to fight the way it fights best.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 4:41 pm to GOP_Tiger
There's also an interesting article in today's NY Times that discusses a point I've made before: as Ukraine advances in the south, it gains greater ability to target Russian logistics, comms, and C2 -- which then makes it easier for Ukraine to advance. In other words, there's a positive feedback loop.
This is why I do not agree with those of you who posit that a 1 km Russian gain west of Kreminna = a 1 km Ukrainian gain in the south.
If Ukraine were to put a HIMARS in just-recaptured Staromaiorske, they could hit Mariupol on a good day. They wouldn't really bring a HIMARS right up to the very front like that, but it'll become possible if Ukraine advances a few more kilometers on that front.
Likewise, Ukrainian advances towards Tokmak have now put that city inside regular artillery range, severely threatening Russia's rail logistics.
quote:
Kyiv has a more immediate goal.
That is to penetrate deep enough into occupied territory to bring more Russian military targets within range of Ukraine’s gradually expanding arsenal, further disrupting Moscow’s supply lines and its ability to parry Ukrainian advances.
“The main task we face now, in addition to moving forward, is, of course, to weaken the enemy’s ability to defend itself,” Hanna Malyar, the deputy minister of defense, said on Ukrainian national television. “And in fact, this is what we are doing now.”
The Ukrainian military claims to be destroying dozens of Russian weapons depots every week while constantly searching for command posts, air defense systems and concentrations of troops to hit.
quote:
Before Ukraine launched its counteroffensive two months ago, its frontline positions were between 60 and 90 miles from the coast, just out of the reach of HIMARS, truck-mounted launchers that fire satellite-guided rockets.
That means that every mile that Ukraine gains in its current assault, the closer it gets to Russian targets along the coast.
This is why I do not agree with those of you who posit that a 1 km Russian gain west of Kreminna = a 1 km Ukrainian gain in the south.
If Ukraine were to put a HIMARS in just-recaptured Staromaiorske, they could hit Mariupol on a good day. They wouldn't really bring a HIMARS right up to the very front like that, but it'll become possible if Ukraine advances a few more kilometers on that front.
Likewise, Ukrainian advances towards Tokmak have now put that city inside regular artillery range, severely threatening Russia's rail logistics.
Posted on 7/28/23 at 4:46 pm to GOP_Tiger
Oh, this is very interesting. Lockheed just got $44 million to accelerate production of the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which the Army's upgrade from and replacement for ATACMS. The first PrSM missiles are now due this fall. I wonder why we decided to pay Lockheed an extra $44 million to accelerate production?
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