re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Currently conflicting reports regarding Klishchiivka. Sladokov is claiming that Russians are abandoning it, while Ukrainian sources are claiming this is not the case.

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Rybar just now: LINK

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Contrary to the information about a breakthrough by the AFU near Kleshcheevka, the village is still under the control of the Russian Armed Forces.

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This adds up to Ukrainian claims of an even 100 Russian artillery pieces destroyed in the last three days.

Every artillery piece destroyed helps the Ukrainians to advance faster.

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I’ve been busy getting caught up after being on vacation. What’s the deal with the ZNPP? Is Ukraine just fear mongering or is Russia getting ready to cause Chernobyl 2.0?

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The Russians have been evacuating their people from around the nuke plant and Russian propagandists have been crowing that Russian soldiers can fight on when the plant blows up. Russia is in complete control of the plant (like the dam) and the Ukrainians say the Russians are setting charges around the reactors. The Russian milbloggers all apparently got the order at the exact same time to change their stories to claim that Ukraine is about to attack the plant.

Sounds like the Russians are preparing to blow it up and release radiation.

I believe I've read somewhere along the way that the plant is in cold shutdown or something similar. Would this have any bearing on if the plant was bombed or sabotaged in any way?

I do think that Theiner's piece linked earlier makes some sense and ties in to the targeting of artillery.

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Still Ukraine must attrition russia's heavy equipment before it can begin Phase 2 of the offensive... and the only way to do it is to bait russian forces into GMLRS and Excalibur range. And Ukraine is doing this right now by attacking the russian lines with four of the ten brigades that have been readied for this Phase
- Theiner

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This adds up to Ukrainian claims of an even 100 Russian artillery pieces destroyed in the last three days.

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Perun noticed in his video of 10 days ago that Ukraine has been emphasizing taking out artillery for something like the last month.

Perun - from 22:06 to 24:20

Perun noticed from the Ukrainian reported data the effort to take out Russian artillery. He's on the same page as Theiner that Ukrainian offensives seem designed to force Russia to bring up the heavy artillery where it can be taken out by counter battery fire with the more precise artillery that has been supplied to Ukraine.

It seems like Ukraine learned early in the offensive that mass assaults are a bad idea because of Russian artillery and are proceeding to neutralize that first.

I don't think that we have talked about this Financial Times article that tells us why Putin won't use a tactical nuke:

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Xi Jinping personally warned Vladimir Putin against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine, indicating Beijing harbours concerns about Russia’s war even as it offers tacit backing to Moscow, according to western and Chinese officials.

The face-to-face message was delivered during the Chinese president’s state visit to Moscow in March, the people added, one of Xi’s first trips outside China after years of isolation under his zero-Covid policy.

Since then, Chinese officials have privately taken credit for convincing the Russian president to back down from his veiled threats of using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, the people said.

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And there was also this:

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The US, UK, and France, Nato’s three nuclear powers, told the Kremlin they would strike its forces with conventional weapons if it used tactical nuclear arms. In the wake of the warnings, Putin abandoned his rhetoric and did not mention tactical nuclear weapons publicly for several months.

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It seems like Ukraine learned early in the offensive that mass assaults are a bad idea because of Russian artillery and are proceeding to neutralize that first.

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I’m assuming the Ukrainians are being advised by the brightest military minds in the west. Kudos for following their advice.

It seems like all those war planning simulators helped our understanding of what a modern war among peers would look like.

Russia didn’t seem to have that level of preparation

The reason that Russia would consider blowing up the plant is not to cause a massive radiation leak (after all, the prevailing winds are usually towards Russia).

The reason that Russia would blow up the plant is that the plant is capable of producing a massive amount of electricity, and Russia wants Ukraine economically damaged as much as possible.

DailyBeast

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Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin was spotted Tuesday arriving at an FSB office in St. Petersburg along with his security team, local news outlet Fontanka reports. He had reportedly been invited to collect several weapons seized by security services in the wake of his attempted insurrection last month.

Authorities handed over two Saiga rifles, a Mannlicher rifle, and several other firearms, according to Fontanka. The lot reportedly also included a Glock pistol gifted to the foul-mouthed mercenary boss by none other than Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin had allegedly hoped to capture in his armed uprising and march on Rostov.

Prigozhin was also reportedly given back 10 billion rubles (more than $100 million) that law enforcement had found during a raid on one of his vehicles.

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The internet is entertaining the idea that Putin wanted Wagner in Belarus as a check on Luka. I tend to believe most decisions are not 5D chess.