re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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If he came in and said that the world was flat, would you seriously argue with him?

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LINK

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Kakhovka reservoir is drying up: Sentinel-2 data processed by Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute

(light blue - water remaining on June 20, purple - Dnipro river bed).

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That leads to the conclusion that there are two potential crossing points at present or in the near future: at Mykhailivka, and at Sablukivka.



Those are the logical crossing points, because the nearby ground has been dry for at least five days, and also because Ukraine can realistically only attempt a crossing where the river channel is close to the Ukrainian side.

Of course, Ukraine could also attempt a crossing further south near Kherson City.

My understanding is that Ukraine has three pontoon systems capable of a Dnipro crossing. They could conceivably attempt to cross in two places at once, to increase the chance of success.

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Why would they want to? Kiev would be a huge drain on Russian resources. Much better to let Poland and the West feed them if they don't absolutely have to.

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Stopped here. Tell me you dk shite about this without telling me. The Russians do not want the west or Poland anywhere closer to them in any capacity. It is literally their historical reason for this war.

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Well, if that was Putin’s goal for this war he really really fricked up.

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Absolutely. This has been a massive miscalculation for Putin. If the war ended today and Russia kept Crimea and the eastern territory they still control it’s still a massive failure for him because of this, Scandinavian NATO ascension, loss of personnel, equipment, economic value, among others.

Managed to track down the original story about Nordstream 2 that the footage was taken from, there is far more footage available and the article is fairly positive that it was caused by a shaped charge.

https://nyheder.tv2.dk/krimi/2023-06-20-lille-detalje-paa-den-oedelagte-gasledning-ved-bornholm-sladrer-om-hvordan-sabotagen-blev-gennemfoert - Lots of Video

One of the significant things is that in comparison, Nordstream 1 used a much larger and more destructive blast according to Oliver Alexander based on the size of the destruction and spread of the debris

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1671398627279876101

I wonder what the odds are on each pipe being blown by different parties is given the reported disparate methods.

Plus an independent Ukraine who will almost assuredly become a member of NATO and the EU

Found quite a few things today,

Reports Ukraine is forming another 3 reserve Rifle brigades which would discount claims they are hitting a manpower shortage if true.

https://militaryland.net/news/ukraine-forms-additional-reserve-forces/

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Three new reserve brigades have recently appeared in the structure of Ukrainian Ground Forces.

Ukrainian command has decided to form three additional reserve brigades to reinforce the strength of its reserve forces. We wrote about the first 142nd Reserve Brigade back in April 2023, and recently three more reserve brigades have appeared.

141st Reserve Rifle Brigade
143rd Reserve Rifle Brigade
144th Reserve Rifle Brigade
There is a little to known about the new brigades. We’ll follow the topic and update the article once we learn more.

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Fascinating article by VoxUkraine about how Western studies in America of both Russia and Eastern Europe countries are flawed in their understanding on what motivates and drives both sides due to a multi-generational Russia centric focus on history and literature studies.

https://voxukraine.org/en/why-russian-studies-in-the-west-failed-to-provide-a-clue-about-russia-and-ukraine

Great article by Henry Schlottman on how the counteroffensive has progressed thus far for both sides. As he notes this is not a final assessment as it is still far too early to declare how it will play out.

https://henryschlottman.substack.com/p/ukraines-counteroffensive-part-ii



Sam Bendett assess claims from a Russian telegram channel that they are still plagued by communications problems, even after over a year in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1671597425306263552



Found an alternative to Oryx, many are probably already aware of them but sharing for those who may not. They claim to be more strict then Oryx in what they classify as a loss, as noted in their latest thread.

https://twitter.com/WarSpotting

https://twitter.com/WarSpotting/status/1671130073934581761


Finally this was Malcontent News's take on the Ukrainian tank reversing over an MRAP. I have to agree with many other comments I have seen, MRAP's are damn sturdy.




Edit: Clarity and fixed link

Commercial divers do this around 1000 times a year just in the Gulf of Mexico. It is the preferred method and only one used when even near 200 feet deep. It severs right through heavy wall steel pipe filled with cement and in some cases layers of pipe and cement.

It was deep enough to require saturation diving with decompression required.

Russians report attack on Chonhar Bridge
Olha Hlushchenko, Iryna Balachuk — Thursday, 22 June 2023, 09:26

Russians have reported an attack on a bridge on the administrative border between Kherson Oblast and Crimea near Chonhar.

Source: Volodymyr Saldo, collaborator and so-called "head" of occupied Kherson Oblast; Sergey Aksyonov, the Russian-appointed head of Crimea; Russian media outlet Baza

Details: Aksyonov reported that "an attack was made on the Chonhar bridge at night."

Saldo stated that, "according to a preliminary assessment, British Storm Shadow missiles were used." In addition, Saldo posted a photo of the Chonhar Bridge.



Ukrainska Pravda


More info Defense industry of Ukraine


The bridge is a strategic object that plays an important role in the logistics of the Russian invasion forces. Thus, due to the suspension of traffic through Chonhar, Russian trucks will have to make a detour of 100 kilometers to get from Crimea to occupied Melitopol, which will take at least several hours.

The bridge is located 128 kilometers away from the nearest point of the line of engagement, namely the right bank of the Kherson region. This eliminates the possibility of using the already traditional GMLRS precision missiles from HIMARS MRL, the range of which does not exceed 84 kilometers.

The Storm Shadow cruise missiles recently delivered by the UK are a potential candidate for hitting targets at such a long range. However, the somewhat modest consequences of a hit do not match the power of the missile’s 450-kilogram warhead.

The Ukrainian “Vilkha-M” missile could be considered another candidate. It was built before the start of the Russian invasion and was in the final stages of development in 2022. The 150 km range of these missiles covers the distance to the bridge, and its warhead weighing 170 kg is similar in effect to that of the GMLRS 91 kg one.

On February 28, 2023, Ivan Vinnyk, First Deputy Chairman of the National Association of the Defense Industrial Complex of Ukraine, shared that the manufacturers were planning to modify Vilkha-M. He declined to specify exactly when the missiles might be ready and how many would be manufactured.

“Let’s just say, we hope, just during the counteroffensive, the probability of which is expected in the south, in the direction of the Sea of Azov,” he said. “Tests will take place on the battlefield.”

There's no chance that small hole is Storm Shadow.

It looks exactly like the small holes in the Antinovsky Bridge near Kherson that Ukraine made using GMLRS rockets from HIMARS.

But it's too far to be GMLRS, so I have to conclude that this is GLSDB. We didn't know when GLSDB would be delivered to Ukraine, but this makes sense.

Edit: three rockets hit the twin bridges, and another narrowly missed. There is zero chance that Ukraine spent four Storm Shadow missiles on these bridges. We also haven't seen anything like a Ukrainian ability to fire four Storm Shadow at once.