re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I was apparently 100% incorrect. Here's a fragment of a missile which clearly indicates its manufacture by MBDA Missile Systems. It was Storm Shadow.



And, while one of the holes appeared small and round like the GMLRS holes we saw in Antinovsky Bridge, this hole is not. Much bigger.

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Reports Ukraine is forming another 3 reserve Rifle brigades which would discount claims they are hitting a manpower shortage if true.

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Three new reserve brigades have recently appeared in the structure of Ukrainian Ground Forces. Ukrainian command has decided to form three additional reserve brigades to reinforce the strength of its reserve forces. We wrote about the first 142nd Reserve Brigade back in April 2023, and recently three more reserve brigades have appeared. 141st Reserve Rifle Brigade 143rd Reserve Rifle Brigade 144th Reserve Rifle Brigade There is a little to known about the new brigades. We’ll follow the topic and update the article once we learn more.

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I would be hesitant to declare the formation of these three rifle brigades as discounting manpower shortages. It all depends on how these brigades were formed and to what strength they’ve been raised. Remember, even in the final weeks of the WWII the Germans were still creating entire “divisions” which in most cases turned out to be little more than kampfgruppes cobbled together by merging the shattered remnants of already depleted formations.

Having said that, I’m not saying this is what Ukraine is doing. I’m just pointing out a hypothetical possibility with historic precedent. It’s entirely possible these new rifle brigades are fully staffed fresh formations. We simply don’t know one way or the other.

Disclaimer: As I’ve stated and demonstrated before in this thread, I’m a neutral observer in this war and only give opinions based on my own military experience and decades of study in military history.

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What month long campaign to take kiev? IIRC there was a convey that stopped miles outside and just sat there for several days. That's why I think they either had bad intel about a quick surrender or less likely that their purpose was to keep UKR troops stuck there to defend it against potential attack.

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Hahaha

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What two major armies? Russia's entire invasion force was 160-180k men. The entire RUS force in UKR has never exceeded 200k. Anybody with *ANY* military experience will tell that's not nearly enough troops to conquer anything, much less hold it for very long (unless the people there want you there of course).

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But there were three main attack thrusts from three different northerly directions, all of which were aimed at surrounding Kiev. Their intention was to capture Kiev and displace the government, hoping that the rest of the country would fall in line after securing the capital.

Finland joining NATO is a huge blow. Russia has a strategic submarine port part of their triad not too far away.

Finland being part of NATO now is being very much overloooked.

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Yet the rail bridge was not hit. So more a civilian thing

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And yet Cypher posted a tweet earlier this morning about multiple loud explosions at Dzhankoi, the rail hub for that area.

This is going to turn out similar to the Kherson offensive, only Ukraine now has the tools to prevent Russia from retreating with most of its equipment.

The other difference is that, now, the biggest logistics problem that Russia will have is fuel. At Kherson, they could simply run a fuel pipe under the surface of the Dnipro River. But the fuel needs of all the tanks and other military vehicles along the front significantly exceed the ammo needs, and I don't think that Russia is going to be able to do it -- not for too long, anyway. Ukraine is going to continue to strangle Russian supply.

I’m not as optimistic. Without a meaningful way to provide CAS, it’s going to be difficult to assault entrenched positions.

looks like structural damage in addition to the roadbed...

((Tendar)))
@Tendar
Video footage of the Chonhar car bridge reveal that the damage is more extensive then seen on the still-pictures.

Coordinates:

45°57'08"N 34°28'45"E

Twitter

CNN: LINK

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In its early phases, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is having less success and Russian forces are showing more competence than western assessments expected, two western officials and a senior US military official tell CNN.

The counteroffensive is “not meeting expectations on any front,” one of the officials said.

According to the Western assessments, Russian lines of defense have been proving well-fortified, making it difficult for Ukrainian forces to breach them. In addition, Russian forces have had success bogging down Ukrainian armor with missile attacks and mines and have been deploying air power more effectively.

Ukrainian forces are proving “vulnerable” to minefields and Russian forces “competent” in their defense, one of the Western officials said.

The officials cautioned that the counteroffensive is still in its early stages – and that the US and its allies “remain optimistic” Ukrainian forces will be able to make territorial gains over time. The US and its allies are likely to wait until at least July for a fuller assessment of the progress of the counteroffensive which was gradually launched over the last few weeks and is seen as crucial to determining who ultimately wins the war which was launched when Russia invaded last year.

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They can run small tankers to Melitopol and Berdyansk easy as pie. Their refineries have few other customers these days and there is a major terminal on the Black Sea for both crude oil and refined products. It is at Novorossiysk