re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

I missed this several days ago but the latest claim regarding Valerii Zaluzhnyi is that he has in fact been fired rather than killed. It seems Russia is very keen for him to be out of the picture one way or another.

https://twitter.com/MyLordBebo/status/1667221562963968002

quote:

---

More and more information come in, that Zaluzhny is essentially “fired”, the TG Channel Resident UA:
“Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny refused to launch a counteroffensive without F-16s and long-range missiles, but the Office of the President decided not to wait for the decision of the Commander-in-Chief and held a bid, which identified three main commanders:
Alexander Syrsky - commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Khortitsa".

Oleksandr Komarenko - Head of the Operational Directorate of the Headquarters of the Command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Alexander Tarnavsky - commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Tavria".

The counteroffensive is commanded by Syrsky, who lost Bakhmut a month ago and for 4 weeks already is assaulting Kleshcheevka.”

---

quote:

---

More and more information come in, that Zaluzhny is essentially “fired”, the TG Channel Resident UA:
“Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny refused to launch a counteroffensive without F-16s and long-range missiles, but the Office of the President decided not to wait for the decision of the Commander-in-Chief and held a bid, which identified three main commanders

---

wow! Maybe it partially explains why the offensive was delayed a bit( if this is true). I don't believe anyone in NATO/ Pentagon feel F-16's are a game changer & the money would be better spent on other systems.


LINK



Here is one of several F16 pilots who dont believe F16s over Ukrainian skies , with so many active modern anti aircraft systems, would be effective( " No Fighting Chance").

LINK

Long term Nato planes like F-16s would be great defensive weapons , but I dont understand the reluctance to give longer range missiles( with strict conditions that they are used in internationally recognized Ukrainian territory).

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 12 June 2023

During the last week, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has maintained a high public profile, likely with the aim of presenting himself as in control of strategic issues while Ukraine accelerates offensive operations.

Shoigu has provided at least two comments on Russia's defensive operations, including making almost certainly seriously exaggerated claims about Ukrainian losses. This contrasts with other key periods in the war when he had disappeared from public appearances.

Shoigu has also urged Russia's defence industry to redouble its efforts, and castigated Western Military District officers for not dispatching reserve armoured vehicles to the front quickly enough. Shoigu is likely acutely aware of the need to maintain a positive image in the face of increasingly unmasked criticism from some fellow Russians.

quote:

---

“Our source in the OP said that Zaluzhny refused to launch a counteroffensive without F-16s and long-range missiles, but the Office of the President decided not to wait for the decision of the Commander-in-Chief and held a bid, which identified three main commanders:
Alexander Syrsky - commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Khortitsa".

Oleksandr Komarenko - Head of the Operational Directorate of the Headquarters of the Command of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Alexander Tarnavsky - commander of the operational-strategic grouping of troops "Tavria".

The counteroffensive is commanded by Syrsky, who lost Bakhmut a month ago and for 4 weeks already is assaulting Kleshcheevka.”

---

Zaluzhny refusing to launch the offensive is not a believable accusation. It's possible, of course, that he might have been replaced for other reasons, though I think this unlikely. I think that this is simply Russia wishcasting disruption in the Ukrainian ranks.

But, if true, Syrsky has some detractors in the Ukrainian military, such as the anonymous @Tatarigami, who say that he makes poor decisions and lacks respect among the troops. On the other hand, Syrsky was the guy who planned and executed the highly successful Kharkiv offensive last fall.

Random tweets

quote:

---

In the Belgorod region, a train derailed due to an attack by two drones, — russian media.

The cargo train was blown up in the evening of June 10. As a result of the attack, 15 empty wagons overturned. The railway track and contact supports were also damaged. There are no casualties.

---

LINK

quote:

---

Ukraine Conflict Monitor
Subscribe
Sign in
Read in the Substack app
Open app
Ukraine Conflict Monitor - 5 June - 11 June 2023 (Weekly update)
Situational report

KONRAD MUZYKA
JUN 12, 2023
· PAID
BLUF: On Thursday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched the long-anticipated attacks in the Zaporizhihia Oblast. Attacks occurred along two new axes (Orikhiv and Velyka Novosilka) and one already existing south of Vuhledar. The presence of seven brigades near Velyka Novosilka translated into some tactical successes, allowing Kyiv to liberate around 60 sq km within four days. Attacks near Orikhiv resulted in some Ukrainian losses and weren’t as successful. Ukrainian units are some 8 km from the first line of Russian defences. While they can reach it this week, the Ukrainian ability to pierce through Russian fortifications is yet to be tested.

Key takeaways from last week’s developments:
Ukrainians launched the main phase of the counteroffensive spanning across the frontlines in the Zaporizhihia and Donetsk Oblasts; So far, Kyiv employed approximately ten brigades, but only one confirmed with Western-made equipment; Operations during the first four days allowed Ukrainians to liberate more than 60 sq km of territory;

Russian attacks in the Kharkiv Oblast delivered no frontline changes;

The Luhansk Oblast continued to be deprioritised as well; Russian attacks in this region were repelled; Russian sources claimed some successes in Bilohorivka, but no evidence was provided to support these claims.

Ukrainian units reportedly conducted limited but successful counterattacks on Russian positions south and north of Bakhmut; However, no visual evidence was presented to confirm territorial gains; The deployment of Storm-Z troops into Bakhmut indicates low potential for conducting effective ground attacks towards Chasiv Yar;

Ukrainian units continued ground attacks south of Vuhledar, but their progress in this area is unclear.

The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka Dam allowed Russians to redeploy some capabilities towards the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, some of which were interdicted by Ukrainian HIMARS systems;

We expect the Dnipro flow to stabilise this week;

No changes in the posture of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded; Minsk deployed its newly-received S-400 battery probably near the Minsk airport;

Russian missile and drone attacks were limited last week and have had no impact on the tactical, let alone operational, picture of the battlefield;

---

LINK

quote:

---

What is reported to be russian barrier troops executing fleeing soldiers.

The video appeared on one of Zolkin’s channels this morning.

---

LINK

quote:

---

As I keep pointing out, we haven't seen a single Challenger, Stryker, or CV-90 on the field.

---

What is the reason for not going all in and including this equipment with the initial offensive?

quote:

---

What is reported to be russian barrier troops executing fleeing soldiers

---

Damn those three guys smoked a squad pretty quick. They should be on the front lines. Seems a little propagandish

quote:

---

And while China might not outright condemn, they'd be forced into a position where they would need to stop supporting Russia. While there's no doubt China is a world power, if they outright side with Russia at that point theyd be left on an island to starve with Russia alone.

---

Two things would happen immediately and China can not survive either were they to align with Russia, Russia would lose all ability to export hydrocarbons, and anyone who still deals with them becomes a pariah state and is shut out of global trade.

There is about zero chance Russia uses a nuke for any reason other than self preservation, the cost is just too high and they know it.

quote:

---

What is the reason for not going all in and including this equipment with the initial offensive?

---

The big punch will come when Ukraine tries to break the main Russian defensive line.

I think that will come soon. The consistent success all along the axis south of Velyka Novosilka (the Vremivsky Ledge axis) will likely mean that Ukraine will be right up against a 20-mile section of that main fortified line.

Let's look at the map that Rybar posted at 7:15 AM CDT. It's way behind. Ukraine has taken Novomaiorske, Rivnopil, and Novodonetske. Rybar correctly shows Levadne and Novodarivka under Ukrainian control, but it does not show the significant progress that Ukraine has made past those towns.

We got reports overnight that Russia has reinforced near Staromlynivka, and breaking the dam there may have given Russia time to move some reserves into the main fortifications near there.

But if I am correct, and, in the next day or two, Ukraine completes capture of all the area to the north of that fortified line, then does Russia have enough reserves to adequately defend a 20-mile section of it? When Ukraine brings 12+ brigades against them? I do not believe that they do.

So, I personally think that the "big punch" will happen in the next 2-5 days.

If and when that main Russian fortified line is breached and held, then Ukraine can be confident of success in their primary objective of reaching the Sea of Azov and breaking the "land bridge."

Edit: forgot map