re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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That would be a rational assumption. Crimea is a strategic advantage for protecting naval power. The loss would be undesirable but not an existential threat. Russia was an international power in both 2013 and 2015. Crimea doesn't change that.

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Arguably, Russia's worry that Ukraine's potential relationship with the West would affect their lease on Sevastopol was myopic. From a military point of view, the Black Sea is a lake due to the Montreaux Convention, and in terms of the long-term consequences, Russia has much less access to naval waters now than if it did nothing at all with respect to Ukraine. Paramount in all of this is Russian security concerns, but if they acted in a positive-sum manner, and actually sought closer relations with the West, those security concerns would disappear. Western nations are perfectly fine with their own soft power imperialism, and in truth would be happy for the Russians to have their own effective sphere of influence over certain regions if the Russians would be more amenable to softer relations. The US, the UK, France, and Turkey have all participated in various security campaigns in regions where they have historical associations or pressing security concerns, so it isn't like the West is against interventionism as a whole. Russia's general antagonism toward the West creates a worse security situation for themselves than if they had no concerns at all. It's a paradox for the Russians and one they won't ever be able to figure out.

I agree. I’m wondering where “Russia” self preservation ends and “Putin” self preservation begins.

The Russians have a generally myopic distrust of the “West”. They have been invaded 40 or so times from the “West”. They see anything bad in the world and blame it on the “West”. They see themselves in an existential conflict from Europe
that has been going on for a couple of centuries. It’s sad really. Mothers dutifully send their sons to wars to be fodder for incompetent Military and political leaders.

Probably somewhere around an attempted decapitation strike.

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Can we do China next? Cause they’re the real threat to “the west.” This Ukraine thing is a neat little side show in the global power struggle.

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In 2022 China recorded it's lowest number of marriages in 40 years. It's population implosion is accelerating.

Russia is worse than China dealing with that but yes China has a lot of issues and hopefully one day their citizens take down the govt.

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Can we do China next? Cause they’re the real threat to “the west.” This Ukraine thing is a neat little side show in the global power struggle.

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I actually think that in the context of Western-Chinese relations, the Russo-Ukrainian War is a great showcase of what might occur to the Chinese if they act on their territorial ambitions. The way Russia handled the West is also illustrative of exactly what not to do in international relations. China could effectively secure Taiwan through trade and investment alone, as outright antagonism is always going to be a paradox for them as well, with even antagonistic rhetoric leading to a poor security situation for the Chinese.

If the Chinese are wise, they will learn from the West's reaction that Western democracies are far more robust than authoritarian leaders seem to think.

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The Russians have a generally myopic distrust of the “West”. They have been invaded 40 or so times from the “West”. They see anything bad in the world and blame it on the “West”. They see themselves in an existential conflict from Europe
that has been going on for a couple of centuries. It’s sad really. Mothers dutifully send their sons to wars to be fodder for incompetent Military and political leaders.

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Well, there are a lot of historical rivalries between sovernign states that have disappeared in geopolitical terms due to closer relations and, most importantly, economic integration. The Germans and the French fought 3 wars within 70 years, killing millions of people, changing the world forever, and yet within 150 years, the leaders of their respective countries held hands at the Glade of the Armistice, 100 years after the end of the hostilities on the Western Front. LINK

We don't remark about how the geopolitical tensions inside Europe itself were completely obliterated by nothing more than the vision and thoughtfulness of its leaders, who chose the bureaucratic route rather than the military route to deal with their problems. For all the issues and complaints with bureaucracy, it always presents a better solution than violence. For all the complaints about NATO expansion, very few in the wider mainstream media have seemingly pointed out that the Russians chose this path themselves.

Weather forecast for the rest of the week in southern Ukraine is partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm each day.