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Message
1
Posted on 6/9/23 at 9:22 am to NC_Tigah
Until someone tells us where the explosives were set its anybody’s guess as to who did it.
Question, was it documented that Russia set satchel charges inside the dam to be set off if Ukraine pulled off a successful counterattack?
Question, was it documented that Russia set satchel charges inside the dam to be set off if Ukraine pulled off a successful counterattack?
Posted on 6/9/23 at 9:43 am to cypher
quote:
There is likely to be further Russian rhetoric and obstruction of the BSGI in the weeks prior to the next extension deadline of 16 July 2023.
Turkey runs that part of the world now, Russia can grouse and look for crumbs but that deal will get extended.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 9:47 am to Chromdome35
In all seriousness, the theory that Russia planned to blow the damn at a more advantageous time but screwed up, makes the most sense to me.
Game theory suggests that having the dam rigged to blow is advantageous as opposed to not having it rigged to blow.
Game theory suggests that having the dam rigged to blow is advantageous as opposed to not having it rigged to blow.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 9:51 am to Hateradedrink
quote:
the theory that Russia planned to blow the damn at a more advantageous time but screwed up, makes the most sense to me.
Agreed
Posted on 6/9/23 at 9:57 am to Chromdome35
Getting much closer to a smoking gun now. I was initially a believer in the collapse theory. I am now very firmly in the "Russia blew it up" camp.
NY Times:
U.S. Official Says Spy Satellites Detected Explosion Just Before Dam Collapse
NY Times:
U.S. Official Says Spy Satellites Detected Explosion Just Before Dam Collapse
quote:
WASHINGTON — A senior Biden administration official says that U.S. spy satellites detected an explosion at the Kakhovka dam just before it collapsed, but American analysts still do not know who caused the dam’s destruction or how exactly it happened.
The official said that satellites equipped with infrared sensors detected a heat signature consistent with a major explosion just before the dam collapsed, unleashing huge floodwaters downstream.
American intelligence analysts suspect that Russia was behind the dam’s destruction, the senior administration official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. But he added that U.S. spy agencies still did not have any solid evidence about who was responsible.
quote:
The administration official did not rule out the possibility that prior damage to the dam or mounting water pressure might have contributed to the collapse, but American officials believe the explosion, whether deliberate or accidental, was the most likely trigger.
Experts had cautioned earlier this week that the available evidence was very limited, but they said that a blast in an enclosed space, with all of its energy applied against the structure around it, would do the most damage. Even then, they said, it would require hundreds of pounds of explosives, at least, to breach the dam.
An external detonation by a bomb or missile would exert only a fraction of its force against the dam, and would require an explosive many times larger to achieve a similar effect.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 10:14 am to GOP_Tiger
This was teased yesterday, but here's the official announcement: LINK
quote:
Today, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced a new security assistance package, underscoring the unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine. This package, which totals up to $2.1 billion and includes critical air defense and ammunition capabilities, is being provided under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).
quote:
The capabilities in this announcement include:
- Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems;
- HAWK air defense systems and missiles;
- 105mm and 203mm artillery rounds;
- Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems;
- Laser-guided rocket system munitions;
- Support for training, maintenance, and sustainment activities.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 10:23 am to doubleb
It took truck LOADS not just a few satchels. The dam was built to withstand strategic massive bombing raid from the USA.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 10:32 am to CitizenK
quote:
The dam was built to withstand strategic massive bombing raid from the USA.
Massive amount of reinforced concrete.
"It is necessary to understand how the Kakhovka HPP actually looked, because we are talking about a huge structure of high-strength concrete."
Link also has cross section drawings of the dam.
Defense Express
This post was edited on 6/9/23 at 10:35 am
Posted on 6/9/23 at 10:34 am to GOP_Tiger
This is the first aid package that I see 203 mm rounds being sent which are obviously for Ukraine’s Soviet 2S7 Pion SPGs that have somehow not run out of ammunition since the war started. You still see them in use all the time. You’d think that caliber would be one of the first to dry up for them.
This post was edited on 6/9/23 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 6/9/23 at 10:37 am to CitizenK
quote:
by CitizenKIt took truck LOADS not just a few satchels. The dam was built to withstand strategic massive bombing raid from the USA.
That’s what I tried to pin down. What exactly took down the dam?
People are just spitballing. Underwater? Missile? Interior charges?
Posted on 6/9/23 at 10:56 am to LSUPilot07
quote:
You’d think that caliber would be one of the first to dry up for them.
Baltic friends.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 11:10 am to Darth_Vader
quote:
Yep. I find that odd. One of the critical aspects of any combined arms offensive, especially one on this scale, is the air war. But it’s like both sides have forgotten than.
The air defenses on both sides are so deadly it’s basically suicide to fly a manned aircraft over enemy territory, especially with neither side having any stealth or significant SEAD capabilities.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 11:36 am to doubleb
The only way is from within the Turbine Hall. I've stated that previously, as experts have. Just a redux of the USSR in 1941 of the previous dam
This post was edited on 6/9/23 at 11:37 am
Posted on 6/9/23 at 12:22 pm to Lakeboy7
We also had a 203 mm howitzer the M110 but I’d bet that Elvis is still alive more than the U.S. still having any of those shells left in storage somewhere.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 12:48 pm to LSUPilot07
Explosions rock occupied Henichesk and Arabat Spit in Kherson Oblast
KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO — Friday, 9 June 2023, 19:17
Explosions rang out in the occupied city of Henichesk in Kherson Oblast, smoke is rising.
Source: Ivan Fedororov, Mayor of Melitopol, on Telegram, local Telegram channel Henishesk ua, and Crimean informational agency Centre for Journalistic Investigations
At the same time, an OSINT analyst [open source intelligence – ed.], Benjamin Pittet, commented on the information about the explosion in Shchaslyvtsevo: "Based on this geolocation, I believe Ukraine has just hit an army headquarters visited by Putin in April."
Ukrainska Pravda
KATERYNA TYSHCHENKO — Friday, 9 June 2023, 19:17
Explosions rang out in the occupied city of Henichesk in Kherson Oblast, smoke is rising.
Source: Ivan Fedororov, Mayor of Melitopol, on Telegram, local Telegram channel Henishesk ua, and Crimean informational agency Centre for Journalistic Investigations
At the same time, an OSINT analyst [open source intelligence – ed.], Benjamin Pittet, commented on the information about the explosion in Shchaslyvtsevo: "Based on this geolocation, I believe Ukraine has just hit an army headquarters visited by Putin in April."
Ukrainska Pravda
Posted on 6/9/23 at 1:34 pm to cypher
LINK
That should be in the range of 50,000 shells. Belgium has really not given a whole lot to Ukraine, so this is good.
quote:
BRUSSELS, June 9 (Reuters) - Belgium will supply Ukraine with 105mm artillery rounds worth 32.4 million euros ($35 million), a spokesperson for Belgium's defence ministry said on Friday.
The ammunition will be purchased from Belgian industry and will be delivered as soon as possible, a statement said.
That should be in the range of 50,000 shells. Belgium has really not given a whole lot to Ukraine, so this is good.
Posted on 6/9/23 at 1:51 pm to cypher
quote:
I believe Ukraine has just hit an army headquarters visited by Putin in April."
Messaging
Posted on 6/9/23 at 2:09 pm to Lakeboy7
Posted on 6/9/23 at 2:16 pm to ColtRange
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