re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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If Russia uses tactical nukes then Ukraine is the least of the Russian’s worries. That would be too much for the west to just stand by and allow, especially Poland.

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Russians doesn't think like we do in the West. Must be the Mongol bloodlines. It's been that way for centuries.

You think a real war would stay conventional?

I feel like they will have some success. But yes they will run into a few walls

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I would think the Ukrainians conducting these initial attacks have to know they’re running borderline suicide missions. Whatever their plan may be, these initial attacks against the well established Russian lines will be brutal.

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We have evidence in writing from the leaked documents that the US had little faith in a successful counteroffensive and we have some evidence so far that the “counteroffensive” has been a total disaster.

This probably isn’t going to end the way this board had hoped.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 9, making further gains around Bakhmut and in Western Donetsk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged on June 9 that the Ukrainian counteroffensive recently began and noted that Ukrainian forces still have offensive potential, a departure from previous Kremlin efforts to downplay Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Contrarily, much of the Russian information space prematurely claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed after Russian forces damaged more Western-provided Ukrainian military equipment on June 9.

Ukrainian officials directly acknowledged that Ukrainian forces expect to suffer equipment losses during counteroffensive operations.

The Russian command structure responsible for areas of southern Ukraine is unclear and likely overlapping.

Russian forces carried out missile and drone strikes across Ukraine on the night of June 8 to 9.

Several independent sources reported additional evidence that an internal explosion likely destroyed the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam on June 6.

The White House revealed on June 9 that Iran is helping Russia build a drone manufacturing factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia, underscoring the growing military cooperation between Tehran and Moscow despite Western sanctions.

Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov discussed increasing Russian-Chinese military cooperation with Chinese Central Military Commission (CMC) Joint Staff Department Chief of Staff Liu Zhenli on June 9.

Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted limited and localized ground attacks south of Kreminna.

Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Ukrainian forces continued limited ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russia continues to evade international sanctions and has reportedly restored access to key Western microchips and electronics that Russia needs to produce military equipment.

A Ukrainian report states that Russian authorities may be preparing evacuations from northern Crimea.

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on June 9 that Russia will begin deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus in July 2023, and this is not an escalation from Putin’s prior nuclear weapons rhetoric.

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Nukes have become the ultimate taboo. It’s an unsaid thing that militaries don’t go there. I just don’t see how a big answer would not be pretty much mandatory but nothing would shock me with our current leadership. Russia using them would green light places like Iran and North Korea or China to use them. Russian/Soviet doctrine is all about threatening with nuclear war so this is just another play straight from their playbook. Nothing will come of it. Putin knows his army can’t fight another peer adversary. They would be wiped out like the Iraqis in Desert Storm with half running away or surrendering. So it will never happen.

Fair enough

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Are the Russians still winning IYO?

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Defense contractors are the only ones winning right now.

ATPB is longest

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The offensive has already been underway for something like 48-72 hours.

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It started last Sunday so it's been five days. UKR forces haven't even made it to the first line of Russian defenses yet, much less threatened any kind of breakthrough.

History will not be kind to the people who put these poor untrained fools up to this.