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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:02 am to cypher
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:02 am to cypher
quote:
Any explanations for how the dam was breached in 3 separate areas?
Looking at the satellite photo it appears there are 3 separate voids.
I was just about to post this. If it were a structural failure due to high water, you would not have the distributed voids as are visible on the satellite photo. Highly unlikely. Obviously we do not have drawings of the structure, so we can't be sure. I'd be curious to know how the generator & administrative buildings are connected to the dam itself, because those appear to largely remain.
0
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:03 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu accused Ukraine on Tuesday of blowing up the huge Nova Kakhovka dam as part of a plan to redeploy units from the nearby Kherson region for operations against Russian forces.
Reuters reports a Russian defence ministry statement signed by Shoigu said the dam breach and resultant flooding were designed to prevent Russia from attacking near Kherson, while allowing Ukraine to “transfer units and equipment from the Kherson front to the area of offensive operations”.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:04 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
NC_Tigah quote: One of the major drivers of invasion was Ukraine's continual shutting down of Crimea's water supply vis-a-vis the Crimean Canal Russia invaded Crimea in 2014. .
quote:
The Crimean Canal provides most of Crimea's fresh water. It originates from the Dnipro Reservoir just above the dam. That area was controlled by Ukraine until last year
But you said Russia invaded Ukraine to get Crimeans water. So their 2014 invasion failed to do that so last year they decided to conquer the rest of Ukraine so the Crimeans can have plenty to drink. Makes great sense.
I just didn’t know the Russians were that benevolent. And to think all this time I was thinking they were just after Jews, Globalists and Nazis.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:06 am to Hateradedrink
quote:So, either you didn't read the post, or you didn't understand it.
Man, don’t you look like a dumbass now
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:06 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
to prevent Russia from attacking near Kherson
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:10 am to Chromdome35
So, focusing on the long term impacts, it is consistent with Russian destruction of as much valuable Ukraine infrastructure as possible. Probably a few billion dollars in this case.
And short term, it causes confusion and delays and may disrupt planning for the offensive, taking away momentum.
Both sides suffer dislocation in the flooding near term.
The Power plant/ Crimea water considerations seem minor from military standpoint.
Advantage: Russia
And short term, it causes confusion and delays and may disrupt planning for the offensive, taking away momentum.
Both sides suffer dislocation in the flooding near term.
The Power plant/ Crimea water considerations seem minor from military standpoint.
Advantage: Russia
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:14 am to nitwit
quote:
Advantage: Russia
The only real advantage I see from this for Ukraine is in the Geopolitical realm but I don't think that comes close to offsetting the disadvantages.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:18 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The Crimean Canal provides most of Crimea's fresh water. It originates from the Dnipro Reservoir just above the dam. That area was controlled by Ukraine until last year. Under their control, they continually disrupted water supply via the canal. It devastated Crimean agriculture, and made life on the peninsula quite hard
I can’t believe Ukraine didn’t want to pump their natural resources into land that Russia stole from them to support Russian agriculture. Wild!
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 9:20 am
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:22 am to doubleb
quote:To secure water supply via the Crimean Canal? Yeah?
So their 2014 invasion failed to do that
quote:So it appears. Happy I could help.
I just didn’t know ...
But putting Ukraine's decision to maliciously shutoff Crimea's water supply in terms of Russian benevolence is odd. I suppose your belief is Crimea is an unwillfully occupied Ukrainian Oblast. As such, Crimeans were victims of an illegal occupation, followed by an inhuman disruption of their water supply.
Russia as the "illegal occupier" wanted to at least unwind the latter, and allow for economic resumption on the peninsula. I don't know if that qualifies as benevolence, but it is pragmatic.
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 9:23 am
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:24 am to Chromdome35
This is a big deal
Confirmation from other Russian sources about Prigozhin's statement yesterday that Ukraine was in Berkhiovka (This is a northern suburb of Bakhmut)
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1666087338072735751
In this map from Rybar you can see a blue arrow just north of Bakhmut. Thats the place. Even Rybars map doesn't show a penetration to Befhovka which is north of the tip of the blue arrow.
Confirmation from other Russian sources about Prigozhin's statement yesterday that Ukraine was in Berkhiovka (This is a northern suburb of Bakhmut)
https://twitter.com/Sprinter99880/status/1666087338072735751
quote:
Yevgeny Prigozhin's statement yesterday about the entry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into Berkhovka turned out to be correct. OSU assault groups have entered Berhovka north of Bakhmut, fierce fighting is going on for the settlement.
In this map from Rybar you can see a blue arrow just north of Bakhmut. Thats the place. Even Rybars map doesn't show a penetration to Befhovka which is north of the tip of the blue arrow.
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 9:26 am
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:26 am to REG861
quote:Pump?
I can’t believe Ukraine didn’t want to pump their natural resources
quote:Going with your thoughtstream, the Crimeans are Ukrainians by definition, are they not? Why would Ukraine cut off water to its own people?
into land that Russia stole from them to support Russian agriculture. Wild!
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:28 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Oh my.
Where pray tell do you suppose the pond water comes from.
The cooling water leaves the plant and goes through winding back and forth narrow canals to the COOLING pond. There are also two large concrete cooling towers like at most US nuke plants.
So get a grip. The cooling water is a circuit apart from the reservoir, just like MOST nuke plants.
Are you related to OML?
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 9:29 am
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:28 am to nitwit
Didn’t Russia have control of the power plant? I assume the dam failed because of negligence vs being attacked. I don’t see anything that looks like it was blown up.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:30 am to REG861
This guy is pro-Ukraine, but he agrees with my thesis that failure is the likely cause.
LINK
I have to agree that, in all the photos and videos I've seen, nothing looks charred or shows any signs of explosive damage. If Ukraine hit the dam with a Storm Shadow, it would show -- and it doesn't.
That does not eliminate the possibility that Russia could have planted charges well below the water line, but I'm very skeptical of that. That would take a lot more competence than we typically see from Russian troops.
No, I'm going to go back to the water behind the dam at a 30-year high, the two prior times that the dam has experienced some damage during the war, the overtopping that happened last month, and the lack of any overwhelming advantage to either side.
LINK
quote:
Did Russia blow it up? It doesn't look like it. Images from this morning show the damage fairly close up. There are no indications of demolition or explosives at the point of failure. There are clear signs of structural collapse of the dam facilities.
I have to agree that, in all the photos and videos I've seen, nothing looks charred or shows any signs of explosive damage. If Ukraine hit the dam with a Storm Shadow, it would show -- and it doesn't.
That does not eliminate the possibility that Russia could have planted charges well below the water line, but I'm very skeptical of that. That would take a lot more competence than we typically see from Russian troops.
No, I'm going to go back to the water behind the dam at a 30-year high, the two prior times that the dam has experienced some damage during the war, the overtopping that happened last month, and the lack of any overwhelming advantage to either side.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:30 am to NC_Tigah
[quote]Why would Ukraine cut off water to its own people? [/quote
From posts above it seems there’s plenty of water for a good while, but I agree with you on this; Ukraine should not be about cutting off water to Crimea.
From posts above it seems there’s plenty of water for a good while, but I agree with you on this; Ukraine should not be about cutting off water to Crimea.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:31 am to REG861
maybe time will tell who or what caused the dam to fail.
IMO, neither side really gains short term from the failure. and it appears the troops from both sides in the region were caught off guard and had to quickly withdraw forces from the low lying areas.
yesterday prior to the reports we received of the dam failure last night, Rybar and other Russian milbloggers were reporting that Ukrainian forces were actively conducting troops movements in the lower Dnipro area and that Ukrainian forces had captured some of the islands. and that rybar claimed more Ukrainian boat traffic and that they had destroyed 2 boats.
Spit balling at a theory here, but i can see Russia pre-mining the dam as a tool to stop a major amphibious Ukrainian invasion. maybe through the fog of war or just some low level officer over reacting, he blew the dam thinking something major was happening to the south.
or, theory two, the high level of the reservoir coupled with the dam having previous war damage was too much and you had a catastrophic failure.
Either way, now that the dam has been blown, it will be weeks or months before Ukraine would attempt a river crossing as the flooded low areas on the east side of Kherson will be impassable.
IMO, neither side really gains short term from the failure. and it appears the troops from both sides in the region were caught off guard and had to quickly withdraw forces from the low lying areas.
yesterday prior to the reports we received of the dam failure last night, Rybar and other Russian milbloggers were reporting that Ukrainian forces were actively conducting troops movements in the lower Dnipro area and that Ukrainian forces had captured some of the islands. and that rybar claimed more Ukrainian boat traffic and that they had destroyed 2 boats.
Spit balling at a theory here, but i can see Russia pre-mining the dam as a tool to stop a major amphibious Ukrainian invasion. maybe through the fog of war or just some low level officer over reacting, he blew the dam thinking something major was happening to the south.
or, theory two, the high level of the reservoir coupled with the dam having previous war damage was too much and you had a catastrophic failure.
Either way, now that the dam has been blown, it will be weeks or months before Ukraine would attempt a river crossing as the flooded low areas on the east side of Kherson will be impassable.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:31 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
Going with your thoughtstream, the Crimeans are Ukrainians by definition, are they not? Why would Ukraine cut off water to its own people?
They had cut off the water after 2014. Most of the residents of Crimea were transplanted by Russia. The native Tatars were relocated decades ago. The Ukrainians for the most part left Crimea in and after 2014.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:31 am to GOP_Tiger
Your assessment is very likely. Either way it’s catastrophic for the area.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:35 am to cypher
Cypher,
Look at this video taken this morning, it's clear there are only two breaches in the dam. Since that time, another breach has opened.
Video
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1665905494991462400/video/1
Picture showing the 3rd breach. The breach on the far right of the picture was not there in the video taken earlier.
Look at this video taken this morning, it's clear there are only two breaches in the dam. Since that time, another breach has opened.
Video
https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1665905494991462400/video/1
Picture showing the 3rd breach. The breach on the far right of the picture was not there in the video taken earlier.
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 9:36 am
Posted on 6/6/23 at 9:37 am to tigeraddict
quote:
yesterday prior to the reports we received of the dam failure last night, Rybar and other Russian milbloggers were reporting that Ukrainian forces were actively conducting troops movements in the lower Dnipro area and that Ukrainian forces had captured some of the islands. and that rybar claimed more Ukrainian boat traffic and that they had destroyed 2 boats.
Yeah really no need to overthink this. There is going to be a crossing of the Dnipro, this will slow it down but its going to happen.
And bridges, dams are legitimate military targets so adjust your fire and move on. I can promise you this was planned for.
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