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Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:01 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
You're kidding, right?
Uh, no. You seem to be new here. Anyone who's been around for a while knows that I try to play it straight.
For the last several weeks, Ukraine has systematically been taking parts of the Dnipro delta, especially the islands in the river and the dachas near Oleshky on the far side. In approaching Oleshky, Ukraine has increasingly threatened that settlement. If Ukraine could have captured Oleshky, they would've had an opportunity to cross the Dnipro in force there. Enough of the surrounding area was swamp that Ukraine could've then established a pontoon crossing and tried to establish a beachhead on the other side of the river. This was on everyone bingo card as a possible part of the Ukrainian offensive.
Now, that's impossible. It makes no sense for Ukraine to sacrifice tremendous effort and the lives of its troops to acquire positions that it planned to wash away in a catastrophic flood. It makes no sense for Ukraine to work very hard to set conditions for a possible Dnipro crossing near Kherson, only to destroy that opportunity.
At the same time, it does not make sense for Russia to blow the dam. Many of their downstream positions are getting washed away. If they were going to blow the dam, they wouldn't have put their own troops in positions like this:
If Russia were going to blow the dam, the logical thing would have been to withdraw from some of the areas near the river on the left bank, encourage Ukraine to make a crossing and establish a beachhead, and THEN blow the dam and wipe out massive amounts of Ukrainian vehicles.
Again, the tactical advantages that may now result to either side are insufficient to justify blowing the dam. It does not make sense for either side to intentionally blow the dam right now.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:02 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
The Dnipro Reservoir provides water to Crimea and to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Both are under Russian control.
Not required for the nuke plant, there is both a large evaporation pond and two large cooling towers for that plant.
Russia may not have Crimea in a few months.
So there goes that theory
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:03 am to CitizenK
The Putinists have been setting up this war crime since at least October 2022 when they provided this communique to the UN Security Council. They always accuse Ukraine of what they are going to do. 
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:04 am to GOP_Tiger
The Russians did this in WWII to stop/slow German advance. Guessing that it was a different dam across the Dnipro than this one. It left a large hole which didn't widen
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:05 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Who does blowing off the damn benefit the most tactically?
I think the Russians. Consistent with my earlier theory that a Kherson crossing was possible, the Russians sensed the same and created a natural barrier.
To the counterpoint that this creates a possible northern crossing, I don’t think such a crossing would be immediately available until the water flow stabilizes.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:06 am to CitizenK
LINK
Around 80 settlements were in danger of flooding, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, ordering a mass evacuation from risk areas.
"Russia has detonated a bomb of mass environmental destruction," he said in a statement, calling it "the largest man-made environmental disaster in Europe in decades."
He blamed the Kremlin, which he called "the most dangerous terrorist in the world" and said needed to face "strict accountability."
"It is physically impossible to blow it up somehow from the outside, by shelling," he said, responding to Russian claims that Ukraine had done so. "It was mined by the Russian occupiers. And they blew it up."
Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the destruction of the dam was a “carefully planned act of terrorism” and a "global ecological disaster."
“The terrorists’ goal is obvious — to create obstacles for the offensive actions of the armed forces,” he said.
LINK
Recall, Zelensky warned back in October that Russian forces had mined the Nova Khakova bridge. "Destroying the dam would mean a large-scale disaster," he said, adding that it "will mean exactly the same as the use of weapons of mass destruction."
Around 80 settlements were in danger of flooding, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, ordering a mass evacuation from risk areas.
"Russia has detonated a bomb of mass environmental destruction," he said in a statement, calling it "the largest man-made environmental disaster in Europe in decades."
He blamed the Kremlin, which he called "the most dangerous terrorist in the world" and said needed to face "strict accountability."
"It is physically impossible to blow it up somehow from the outside, by shelling," he said, responding to Russian claims that Ukraine had done so. "It was mined by the Russian occupiers. And they blew it up."
Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said the destruction of the dam was a “carefully planned act of terrorism” and a "global ecological disaster."
“The terrorists’ goal is obvious — to create obstacles for the offensive actions of the armed forces,” he said.
LINK
Recall, Zelensky warned back in October that Russian forces had mined the Nova Khakova bridge. "Destroying the dam would mean a large-scale disaster," he said, adding that it "will mean exactly the same as the use of weapons of mass destruction."
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:06 am to CitizenK
Interesting perspective, it challenges some of my reasoning why it is accidental.
For point 2 Kostyantyn appears to cite this Rybar post https://t.me/rybar/48067 using this forwarded video from this telegram account https://t.me/s/warhistoryalconafter whom has since been deleted the original post.
The translation is unclear, is he using the Rybar post as proof that Russia caused a detonation? If so his premise falls apart as that is the old video from November last year, however he may just be pointing out Rybar was sharing it as disinformation.
For point 2 Kostyantyn appears to cite this Rybar post https://t.me/rybar/48067 using this forwarded video from this telegram account https://t.me/s/warhistoryalconafter whom has since been deleted the original post.
The translation is unclear, is he using the Rybar post as proof that Russia caused a detonation? If so his premise falls apart as that is the old video from November last year, however he may just be pointing out Rybar was sharing it as disinformation.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:08 am to Eurocat
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:08 am to Athanatos
quote:
Consistent with my earlier theory that a Kherson crossing was possible, the Russians sensed the same and created a natural barrier.
Yes I agree. It makes sense because now that all of the fortifications and mines they have been establishing on the left bank of the river for months have been destroyed it allows the Putinists the opportunity to use the element of surprise in where they will construct their fortifications next.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:10 am to BrainKellyRespecter
People from the russian-occupied areas hit by the flood say that in many places the orcs are sitting on trees and screaming as the waters rise.
It seems they underestimated the scale of the disaster they caused. Their fortifications are underwater. And I wonder just how much, in terms of supplies, arms, and heavy guns, they have lost.
LINK
Russia completely flooded their first line of defense (genius!)
LINK
It seems they underestimated the scale of the disaster they caused. Their fortifications are underwater. And I wonder just how much, in terms of supplies, arms, and heavy guns, they have lost.
LINK
Russia completely flooded their first line of defense (genius!)
LINK
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 8:12 am
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:12 am to TBoy
so after reviewing and mulling over how this damn being blown up doesn't help russia in anyway possible, we're going from "Russia controls the dam AND blew it up themselves"....to "Russia controls the dam, but it was probably just an accident from bad infrastructure, definitely not in any way a strategic attack from ukraine"
cool
cool
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:15 am to Pezzo
Just another war crime added the the long list committed by the Putinist. Heroyam Slava!
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:15 am to Eurocat
quote:
the scale of the disaster they caused.
Goodness!
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:15 am to BrainKellyRespecter
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:26 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:One of the major drivers of invasion was Ukraine's continual shutting down of Crimea's water supply vis-a-vis the Crimean Canal. With the reservoir gone, that water supply is kaput. Likewise the Russian controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant cooling system is supplied by the reservoir. Its fate is unclear at best.
If Russia were going to blow the dam
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:27 am to Pezzo
quote:
so after reviewing and mulling over how this damn being blown up doesn't help russia in anyway possible
Please try to pay attention.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:28 am to Athanatos
I find it highly unlikely that blowing the dam was an accident due to the timing. It occurred just as western tanks began appearing at the front which has been understood by all war watchers as the start of the PRIDe Month Offensive. Therefore, the coincidental failing of the dam just at the moment that the PMO was getting underway seems vanishingly slight. Most likely the Putinist realized they were going to get rolled by the PMO and decided to blow the dam out of sheer terror.
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:30 am to BrainKellyRespecter
This is almost as bad as when then most evil country in the world blew up the nordstream pipeline and blamed it on Putin. But nobody cares about that and the media doesn't want to talk about it
This post was edited on 6/6/23 at 8:31 am
Posted on 6/6/23 at 8:31 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
One of the major drivers of invasion was Ukraine's continual shutting down of Crimea's water supply vis-a-vis the Crimean Canal. With the reservoir gone, that water supply is kaput
There are several reservoirs in Crimea that are fed by the canal, and they are all completely full. Crimea has several years worth of water, before what happened today makes an impact.
Also, the cooling pond at the ZNPP is full and should be fine. It may get harder to pump water into it from the Dnipro, but it shouldn't be that hard.
I don't think that there's any significant impact on either one for many months, if not years.
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