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Message
re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/5/23 at 5:59 am to RLDSC FAN
Posted on 6/5/23 at 5:59 am to RLDSC FAN
British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 05 June 2023
Over the course of May 2023, Russia launched over 300 Iranian Shahed series one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs) against Ukraine: its most intense use of this weapon system to date.
Russia is probably launching so many OWA-UAVs in an attempt to force Ukraine to fire stocks of valuable, advanced air defence missiles.
Russia is unlikely to have been notably successful: Ukraine has neutralised at least 90% of the incoming OWA-UAVs mostly using its older and cheaper air defence weapons and with electronic jamming. Russia has also likely been attempting to locate and strike Ukrainian forces well behind the front line. However, Russia remains very ineffective at hitting such dynamic targets at range because of its poor targeting processes.
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 05 June 2023
Over the course of May 2023, Russia launched over 300 Iranian Shahed series one way attack uncrewed aerial vehicles (OWA-UAVs) against Ukraine: its most intense use of this weapon system to date.
Russia is probably launching so many OWA-UAVs in an attempt to force Ukraine to fire stocks of valuable, advanced air defence missiles.
Russia is unlikely to have been notably successful: Ukraine has neutralised at least 90% of the incoming OWA-UAVs mostly using its older and cheaper air defence weapons and with electronic jamming. Russia has also likely been attempting to locate and strike Ukrainian forces well behind the front line. However, Russia remains very ineffective at hitting such dynamic targets at range because of its poor targeting processes.
1
Posted on 6/5/23 at 6:46 am to cypher
Random tweets
LINK
LINK
LINK
LINK
quote:
The European Commission has extended the ban on grain imports from Ukraine to Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria until mid-September, the Polish news agency PAP reporting citing sources.
LINK
quote:
Kots says that, in addition, to the fighting in the South Donetsk area (he says Volnovakha may be a target), Ukrainian units are fighting SW of Bakhmut and artillery is striking targets in Soledar. He notes that the main force has not yet been committed.
LINK
quote:
Just two unrelated news
The head of the Russian wine-making company "Abrau-Durso", Pavel Titov, said that a trend has appeared in China for cider and Russian apples. Since the European market is now closed to Russian alcohol due to sanctions, they are going to sell it in China, where, by the way, there is quite a lot of competition.
In Dimitrovgrad, Ulyanovsk region, 11 people were poisoned by spoiled cider, six of them died.
LINK
quote:
Prigozhin says Russia is losing the settlement of Berkhivka north of Bakhmut; trolls Shoygu and Gerasimov by requesting them to command "fleeing" troops on the ground.
LINK
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:05 am to StormyMcMan
quote:
Prigozhin says Russia is losing the settlement of Berkhivka north of Bakhmut; trolls Shoygu and Gerasimov by requesting them to command "fleeing" troops on the ground.
If true, this is a big deal in terms of the Ukrainian effort to retake the flanks of Bakhmut. Ukraine had made significant progress in that effort even as Wagner was completing its work inside the city limits, but Ukraine paused to rotate units. Now, it appears that Ukraine is restarting that effort.
Map from @NOELreports
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:09 am to GOP_Tiger
From @wartranslated:
quote:
Khodakovsky claims Ukraine is stepping up efforts in the Vuhledar area, says first Leopards were sighted:
"The situation on Novodonets’ke and to the left towards Velika Novosilka is difficult - the enemy, having felt our weak points, is stepping up his efforts. For the first time we saw leopards in our tactical area. As I expected yesterday - having a sense of success, the enemy will throw additional forces into the battle. Only in the area of ??Novodonets’ke recorded up to thirty units of armored vehicles."
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:45 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Khodakovsky claims Ukraine is stepping up efforts in the Vuhledar area, says first Leopards were sighted:
In alignment with:
quote:
Vladimir Rogov
??Friends, I ask you not to rush to publish news about the mass use of Leopards on the Zaporozhye Front!
Wait for the official or at least video confirmation of their use by the enemy in our direction.
We observe information hygiene!
But who knows how much truth is in any Russian source. The fog of war is pretty thick but it sounds like something may be underway. It could also be a feint.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:49 am to Tigris
Has it started?
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:55 am to Tigris
Yes, but with Ukrainians and pro-ukraine sources observing their hush request, i find it fascinating to watch the offensive solely through the disjointed russian’s eyes.
They’re already shitting their pants at the amount of equipment they’re seeing.
They’re already shitting their pants at the amount of equipment they’re seeing.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:55 am to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Ukrainian effort to retake the flanks of Bakhmut
Why does Ukraine want to take this area back? If the city is just a pile of rubble now and holds no real strategic value, what’s the point?
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:55 am to GeauxxxTigers23
It looks like it’s starting
Posted on 6/5/23 at 7:56 am to notiger1997
My guess is they are simply trying to pin all the Russian troops there in place.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 8:03 am to notiger1997
quote:
Why does Ukraine want to take this area back?
Ukraine wants to take all of its land back.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 8:04 am to GeauxxxTigers23
quote:
Has it started?
No way to really know. Possibly. Also possibly more Ukrainian shaping. A few days should tell.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 8:10 am to Tigris
quote:
It could also be a feint.
Sometimes, a feint can end up turning into a successful operation, if it isn't defended properly.
From the Economist:
quote:
"A Western official with knowledge of the situation says that Ukraine advanced in the area by up to five or six kilometres."
If all of this is actually the beginning of the main Ukrainian thrust, then it would indicate that the Mariupol/Berdyansk area is the target.
More people had predicted an assault towards Tokmak and Melitopol, where the terrain is easier, but that's also where Russian defensive fortifications are heaviest.
But, of course, what we're seeing now could be something if a feint -- a Ukrainian attempt to pull Russian reserves east and make an attempt towards Melitopol easier.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 9:14 am to LSUnation78
quote:
with Ukrainians and pro-ukraine sources observing their hush request,
i remember my grandmother telling me stories from WWII time frame. she always repeated the slogan "Loose lips sinks ships"
she said she remembered stories in 1942 of tankers and freighters being sunk in the Gulf, then quickly those stories ceased to be reported.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 9:14 am to GOP_Tiger
If you want to keep up to date via Twitter, I highly recommend using Tweet Deck.
https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/
Tweet Deck uses Twitter lists to display a multi-column timeline of tweets from those lists.
It makes it easy to aggregate and monitor multiple Twitter feeds simultaneously.
What tweet deck looks like
Also, here is a link to my list of Twitter sources to follow.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v2Xp_54BCPj08MlGeRVaqKz0hS57zm78jm4kBSV0T5s/edit#gid=0
ETA: These are links to my twitter lists with all of my twitter sources consolidated into lists
Ukraine OSINT: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527296407513616385?s=20
Ukraine Personalities: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527298963451179016?s=20
Ukraine Map Sources: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527298541709733890?s=20
Miltary Analysts: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527299317295419392?s=20
Ukraine Official Sources: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1665715766312726529?s=20
Ukraine Military Units: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1665716315905032192?s=20
Russian OSINT Channels: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1528052327923466242?s=20
You can follow these lists and in Tweet Deck setup a column to point to each of them and then you don't have to do all the config work.
https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/
Tweet Deck uses Twitter lists to display a multi-column timeline of tweets from those lists.
It makes it easy to aggregate and monitor multiple Twitter feeds simultaneously.
What tweet deck looks like
Also, here is a link to my list of Twitter sources to follow.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v2Xp_54BCPj08MlGeRVaqKz0hS57zm78jm4kBSV0T5s/edit#gid=0
ETA: These are links to my twitter lists with all of my twitter sources consolidated into lists
Ukraine OSINT: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527296407513616385?s=20
Ukraine Personalities: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527298963451179016?s=20
Ukraine Map Sources: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527298541709733890?s=20
Miltary Analysts: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1527299317295419392?s=20
Ukraine Official Sources: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1665715766312726529?s=20
Ukraine Military Units: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1665716315905032192?s=20
Russian OSINT Channels: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1528052327923466242?s=20
You can follow these lists and in Tweet Deck setup a column to point to each of them and then you don't have to do all the config work.
This post was edited on 6/5/23 at 9:33 am
Posted on 6/5/23 at 9:17 am to Chromdome35
quote:
Also, here is a link to my list of Twitter sources to follow.
LINK
Holy shite this is amazing. Thank you for this.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 9:28 am to notiger1997
quote:
Why does Ukraine want to take this area back? If the city is just a pile of rubble now and holds no real strategic value, what’s the point?
I was thinking that since Russia had been on the offensive there for so long that they wouldn’t have had time to prepare their defenses to repel a major attack; thus making them vulnerable tgere.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 9:34 am to doubleb
quote:
I was thinking that since Russia had been on the offensive there for so long that they wouldn’t have had time to prepare their defenses to repel a major attack; thus making them vulnerable tger
that, and since they are trying to take the flanks (which is not a full on urban battlefield like Bakhmut city) they can cut of the city itself and force Russia to pull back or risk encirclement, if they succeed on taking the flanks.
This post was edited on 6/5/23 at 9:44 am
Posted on 6/5/23 at 9:36 am to LSUnation78
quote:
Yes, but with Ukrainians and pro-ukraine sources observing their hush request, i find it fascinating to watch the offensive solely through the disjointed russian’s eyes.
I tried to upvote this statement twice. Russia has a wide open propaganda field right now and they can't seem to keep it going in any single direction.
Posted on 6/5/23 at 9:39 am to tigeraddict
quote:
that, and since they are trying to take the flanks (which is not a full on urban battlefield like Bakhmut city) they can cut of the city itself and force Russia to pull back or risk encirclement so they succeed on taking the flanks.
Yes, exactly what I was thinking too. Take the flanks and envelop the city proper trapping the spent Russians inside.
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