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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Posted on 6/4/23 at 4:55 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 6/4/23 at 4:55 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Belgorod isn’t very far away, it’s been used all war as a staging and logistics center. There has to be a fairly high number of Russian units in the area for refitting and in reserve.
Logic would make you think so anyway.
quote:
ETA: if there aren’t what does that say?
One of two things possible:
1. The Russians don’t want to show their hand and view it as of no strategic importance so they’re tolerating this incursion, at least for now.
Or
2. They have the bulk of their reserves committed in the south to defend against the impending Ukrainian offensive and have insufficient forces in this area to repel enemy forces.
It’s highly likely Russia didn’t leave much force here for the simple reason they didn’t realize Ukraine could strike toward Belgorod.
This post was edited on 6/4/23 at 4:58 pm
1
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:03 pm to Darth_Vader
I think it also speaks to a lack of reserves in general because Belgorod is a place where they should have reserves.
After the first incursion a week or so ago Russia sent one of their top ranked Generals (Larpin) to show how in control they were. Having Ukraine on Russian soil is a big deal with no good ramifications for Putin.
After the first incursion a week or so ago Russia sent one of their top ranked Generals (Larpin) to show how in control they were. Having Ukraine on Russian soil is a big deal with no good ramifications for Putin.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:06 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I think it also speaks to a lack of reserves in general because Belgorod is a place where they should have reserves. After the first incursion a week or so ago Russia sent one of their top ranked Generals (Larpin) to show how in control they were. Having Ukraine on Russian soil is a big deal with no good ramifications for Putin.
If this invasion of Russian soil is allowed to stand with no reply, that’s a huge blow to Russian morale. It makes the Russian army look feckless and weak. And if Putin does nothing about it before the Ukrainian offensive is launched, Russia looks even worse.
This post was edited on 6/4/23 at 5:07 pm
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:06 pm to Chromdome35
Aren't these guys causing mayhem in the area Russian citizens?
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:08 pm to ticklechain
Yes they are Russians fighting on the side of the Ukraine.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:10 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Yes they are Russians fighting on the side of the Ukraine.
How big is this force? Are we talking a battalion? brigade? I’m guessing from the length of frontage, it’s a somewhat substantial force.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:11 pm to Darth_Vader
Exactly, Russia HAS to respond. If they don’t have enough combat power in Belgorod it’s going to have to come from somewhere.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:12 pm to Darth_Vader
The Russian culture is completely toxic to anything we'd consider civilized.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:12 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Exactly, Russia HAS to respond. If they don’t have enough combat power in Belgorod it’s going to have to come from somewhere.
Most likely by pulling forces from the south I’d imagine.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:12 pm to Darth_Vader
I believe it is two battalions I will find out
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:19 pm to Chromdome35
There are two units
1) The Russian Volunteer Corps
2) Freedom of Russia Legion
Neither of them appear to have more than a couple of hundred men. Russia should be able to repel them without much effort; however, Russia.
1) The Russian Volunteer Corps
2) Freedom of Russia Legion
Neither of them appear to have more than a couple of hundred men. Russia should be able to repel them without much effort; however, Russia.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:24 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
There are two units 1) The Russian Volunteer Corps 2) Freedom of Russia Legion Neither of them appear to have more than a couple of hundred men. Russia should be able to repel them without much effort; however, Russia.
You’d think. Russia must not have anything in that region right now. That’s simply astonishing.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:30 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Let's be honest, this is not a position the attacking side wants to find itself in. You exhausted all your offensive potential, you're bracing for an ever-increasing likelihood of a major defensive battle with forces very different from what you had at the peak, all while the enemy is making significant moves in your vulnerable underbelly at your pre-war borders. Things indeed seem so bad that I sometimes think they are giving up on purpose. Their channels are all just sharing each other's statements about the "nazis", it's so much cope and zero substance, no clear military narrative. Prigozhin is the only one appearing in public but he's hardly convincing or reassuring, just trolling. I think Russia could be at the negotiating table right now begging Ukraine and the Allies to agree to peace conditions in order to have a chance to save the country. And this is just how things are right this moment, before anything that's coming has happened... (which I have no insights into).
Across Russian media and social accounts there has definitely been a "blink" this last week, body language and talking points have been very animated, and at times near hysterical. It is looking like their collective arrogance towards Ukraine/belief in their own propaganda has created a significant weak spot that is being exploited in the lead up to kicking things off by Ukraine.
It is incredibly hard to maintain the narrative that they are kicking arse and taking names when we have seen over a week of well documented deep strikes in occupied zones (reported strikes on Melitopol, Mariupol, and Russian Kherson in the last 24 hours alone) and several incursions into Russia proper, minor as they seem to have been. Throw in what reportedly looks to be several probing forays that have made minor gains in the Zaporizhzia and it has not been a good week for Russia.
Much of this seems to be about putting as much strain on the Russian chain of command as possible to get it looking in as many directions at once so its rigidity leads to paralysis and a loss of reaction time, which is exactly what you want if you want to kick off a mobile offensive.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 5:57 pm to Chromdome35
Take with a grain of salt, but Girkin was claiming they amount to about a battalions worth after the initial incursion into Grayvoron and nearby areas.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1664935983614156801
Two things that are apparent, Russian claims that they crushed the initial incursion are looking fairly weak given the ability of these 2 units to mount further operations, and any forces deployed to counter them must have been localised to the Grayvoron area where they first attacked.
While this could be Russia playing dead so they can use this as justification for further mobilisation, or moving to a full war footing, this seems unlikely given how bad it is looking for them as such incursions are repeated. What it looks like is that their borders are weak and largely undefended with little means to bolster them at this time, something that is quite antithetical to the Russian mindset.
Edit: Clarity
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1664935983614156801
Two things that are apparent, Russian claims that they crushed the initial incursion are looking fairly weak given the ability of these 2 units to mount further operations, and any forces deployed to counter them must have been localised to the Grayvoron area where they first attacked.
While this could be Russia playing dead so they can use this as justification for further mobilisation, or moving to a full war footing, this seems unlikely given how bad it is looking for them as such incursions are repeated. What it looks like is that their borders are weak and largely undefended with little means to bolster them at this time, something that is quite antithetical to the Russian mindset.
Edit: Clarity
This post was edited on 6/4/23 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 6/4/23 at 6:14 pm to OutsideObserver
So we have Ukrainian attacks at a minimum of 4 different places on the front line.
In addition to the attacks in the Belgorod direction there are reports of Ukrainian attacks along the front line.
Zaporizhzia Region
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1665451259963355136
The flanks of Bakhmut
https://twitter.com/parrot_soldier/status/1665305855137402880
Svatove
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1665331347571855363
In addition to the attacks in the Belgorod direction there are reports of Ukrainian attacks along the front line.
Zaporizhzia Region
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1665451259963355136
The flanks of Bakhmut
https://twitter.com/parrot_soldier/status/1665305855137402880
Svatove
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1665331347571855363
quote:
??The Armed Forces of ????Ukraine counterattacked ????Russian units in the Svatove direction and advanced 400 meters, — Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine Sirskyi.
Posted on 6/4/23 at 6:16 pm to Chromdome35
There is a third unit with the two Russian, a Polish Volunteer Corps
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1665296845784973314
Videos at link
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1665286385186623495
https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1665296845784973314
quote:
????The "Polish Volunteer Corps" together with the "Russian Volunteer Corps" and the "Legion of Freedom of Russia" took part in combat operations in the ????Belgorod region.
Videos at link
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1665286385186623495
quote:
Allegedly, these are the forces of the so-called "Polish Volunteer Corps" that were entering Bilhorod Oblast on 22 May. If we believe the reports, they were entering alongside the Liberty of Russian and the Russian Volunteer Corps troops.
It is remarkable that you if remove the Kremlin from the equation, there is no such animosity between the two peoples as the muscovites want you to believe.
This post was edited on 6/4/23 at 6:18 pm
Posted on 6/4/23 at 6:41 pm to Chromdome35
Not at all military related, but just saw this news article headline:
quote:
Latvia provides Ukraine with 66 cars confiscated from drunk drivers
Posted on 6/4/23 at 6:57 pm to OleVaught14
Russian MoD:
LINK
quote:
On the morning of June 4, the enemy launched a large-scale offensive in five sectors of the front in the South Donetsk direction by introducing into battle 23 and 31 mechanized brigades from the strategic reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the support of other military units and subunits.
?? In total, six mechanized and two tank battalions of the enemy were involved.
?? The goal of the enemy was to break through our defenses on the most vulnerable, in his opinion, sector of the front.
?? The enemy did not achieve his tasks, he had no success.
?? As a result of skillful and competent actions of the Eastern Group of Forces, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine amounted to more than 250 personnel, 16 tanks, three infantry fighting vehicles, 21 armored fighting vehicles.
Commander of the Joint Group of Forces - Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, General of the Army Gerasimov V.V. during this period he was at one of the advanced command posts in this direction.
#Ministry of Defense
Ladies and Gentlemen, it would appear that the Ukrainian offensive has begun. Whether this attack is a feint or part of a major assault remains to be seen.
This post was edited on 6/4/23 at 6:59 pm
Posted on 6/4/23 at 7:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
The enemy did not achieve his tasks, he had no success
I would beg to differ here
Posted on 6/4/23 at 7:13 pm to GOP_Tiger
If this actually happened, there should be video emerging.
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